So we've got a new poll out from Quinnipiac University looking at Iowa. [mc_name name='Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)' chamber='senate' mcid='C001098' ] has just taken over the Real Clear Politics lead in Iowa by a hair, a finding of Donald Trump 28, Cruz 27 isn't surprising at all.

What is interesting though is to see who's winning Iowa's conservatives, and who's winning the moderates.


[caption id="attachment_258992" align="aligncenter" width="620"]Photo by Gage Skidmore on Flickr Photo by Gage Skidmore on Flickr[/caption]

It turns out it's not even close. Cruz wins "TEA Party" Republicans 45-26 and "Very Conservative" Republicans 34-24. It's among the center and left wings of the party that Trump takes over: "Somewhat Conservatives" are led by Trump 26-25, and "Liberals" tilt heavily toward Trump 27-8 over Cruz.

Cruz also leads in the "White Born-Again Evangelical" segment 34-24 over Trump, directly contradicting Trump's claim that he was doing better than Cruz there.

So if Quinnipiac is right, conservatives are speaking up, and [mc_name name='Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)' chamber='senate' mcid='C001098' ] is their choice.