I’ve been saying all along that anything could happen in the Iowa polling during the last month. And, as it turns out, I was right. With two new polls out today, we’re seeing what looks like a very late breaking surge for one candidate.
What once was a Donald Trump vs Ted Cruz race, might now be a three-way contest with Marco Rubio. And in a three-way race, anything can happen.
The new poll is by Emerson College:
- Trump 27
- Cruz 26
- Rubio 22
Trump drops 6 points in one week in the Emerson poll, while Rubio is up 8.
How did this happen? Looks like a combination of the debate, and new, sustained attacks on Trump. 48% declared that Trump boycotting the debate was at least a little bit important to them, and Trump’s favorability is down 10 points.
Further, Rubio has the highest favorability among likely caucus goers: 65 to Cruz’s 62. Trump is underwater at 43 to 51 unfavorable.
If this holds up, Emerson looks brilliant.