I've been saying all along that anything could happen in the Iowa polling during the last month. And, as it turns out, I was right. With two new polls out today, we're seeing what looks like a very late breaking surge for one candidate.

What once was a Donald Trump vs Ted Cruz race, might now be a three-way contest with Marco Rubio. And in a three-way race, anything can happen.

[caption id="attachment_265516" align="aligncenter" width="600"]House Speaker Marco Rubio, R-Coral Gables, points to his official portrait that will hang in the House chamber, Friday, May 2, 2008, in Tallahassee, Fla.  Rubio is in his final session as House Speaker.(AP Photo/Phil Coale) House Speaker Marco Rubio, R-Coral Gables, points to his official portrait that will hang in the House chamber, Friday, May 2, 2008, in Tallahassee, Fla. Rubio is in his final session as House Speaker.(AP Photo/Phil Coale)[/caption]

The new poll is by Emerson College:

  • Trump 27
  • Cruz 26
  • Rubio 22

Trump drops 6 points in one week in the Emerson poll, while Rubio is up 8.

How did this happen? Looks like a combination of the debate, and new, sustained attacks on Trump. 48% declared that Trump boycotting the debate was at least a little bit important to them, and Trump's favorability is down 10 points.

Further, Rubio has the highest favorability among likely caucus goers: 65 to Cruz's 62. Trump is underwater at 43 to 51 unfavorable.

If this holds up, Emerson looks brilliant.