UMass and 7News have started a New Hampshire tracking poll. That's nice because it gives us daily feedback on the race, letting us catch sharp changes in the polling.

That's where Marco Rubio comes in. He may not have won Iowa, but for his campaign it was as good as a win.


[caption id="attachment_270960" align="aligncenter" width="600"]Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., adjusts his tie before a television interview moments before a campaign event, Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2016, at the town hall, in Exeter, N.H. (AP Photo/Steven Senne) Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., adjusts his tie before a television interview moments before a campaign event, Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2016, at the town hall, in Exeter, N.H. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)[/caption]

The UMass poll is a three-day rolling average. When it started before the Iowa Caucuses, Marco Rubio was in 5th place:

  • Donald Trump 38
  • Ted Cruz 12
  • "JEB" Bush 9
  • John Kasich 9
  • Marco Rubio 8

The Iowa caucus results have brought swift change, though. In just two days Rubio has jumped from fifth to third, from 8 to 12, a 50% increase in his support with that 4 point boost. With Cruz now at 14 points, Rubio is just two points behind Cruz for second place.

Trump? He's stayed put. He was at 38, and he's remained at 38. He's called his result in Iowa a long shot success against all odds, but nobody seems ready to rally around him as a success.

New Hampshire may not yet be Rubio country, but right now he actually does have all the Big Mo.