It’s always easy to discount national polling, when it turns against you. “Fifty state elections!” the losing side cries. “Electoral college! Swing states!”
Donald Trump is now losing so badly, that none of that even matters anymore.
In the last four elections, the Electoral College projections were very close. Everything came down to the “toss-up” states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania. George W. Bush won them twice, as did Barack Obama, so they went on to win the Presidency.
But the current polling is so bad, as Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton, that the toss-up states don’t even matter anymore Excluding the toss-up states, RCP has Clinton up 272-174, which means Trump could run the table of NV, AZ, IA, MO, OH, GA, NC, FL and he still loses 272-266.
538 doesn’t do toss-up states, but their read of the polls has Trump down to a mere 11% chance of winning, and an underdog even to win a single state Barack Obama won in 2012.
270 to win puts it at Clinton 273-164 Trump.
The way things are going now, the GOP is going to get wiped out in November on a scale we haven’t seen since before Ronald Reagan.