Riding the Roller Coasters
I have ridden the roller coasters this political season.
First came the roller coaster of who will run.
Next we were lead through the longest ever debate roller coaster.
Now it’s time for the primary roller coaster.
Riding the Roller Coasters
I have ridden the roller coasters this political season.
First came the roller coaster of who will run.
Next we were lead through the longest ever debate roller coaster.
Now it’s time for the primary roller coaster.
Here’s a pipe dream that will never happen, but I would love to see what America would look like if it did.
What if, you had to pay X amount of taxes no matter what those taxes were spent like, but you were given a list of check boxes.
Your taxes would then be split across all of those check boxes.
Here’s what the check boxes would look like:
o Immigration reform
o Social Security
o Medicare
o Armed Services
o Department of Education
o Etc, Etc
I wonder if America could vote with their money instead of politicians deciding where the money went, how the American government would be different.
ColdWarrior challenged us to ask “What are we going to do to make a difference in 2012?”
Back in 2010, I came up with an idea. I passed it around to a few people and a few local tea parties used it to raise some money.
Now it’s time to reactivate the idea.
So October 2011 is approaching.
GOP debates are happening right and left.
Candidates are rising and falling.
In the House and the Senate, candidates are still filing and deciding.
But the time is now for you to start your work.
If the Tea Party brings the energy and the Precinct Committeeman Project bring the connections, the only thing missing is the cash.
If I were a billionaire, I’d host my own debate for the GOP. Each candidate would get the chance to answer five questions without interruption. After they had each given their answer, I’d allow an attack / rebuttal time of 5/5 minutes each.
1) What is your plan to create full-time jobs in the private sector of this country?
2) Social Security and Medicare are going broke and and the Democrats don’t care. How specifically would you fix the current situation?
3) Illegal immigration is a problem in this country. How specifically would you fix it?
4) America has been at war for ten years and the Democrats recently added another battle front in Libya.
a) How would you approach the problem?
b) When would you feel it was right to commit US troops to a warzone?
c) Do you think there is a position on foreign policy between “nation building” and “isolationism”?
5) What current functions of the federal government would you dismantle and return to the purview of the states?
Well, not really, but it seems that everyone else is. Most of my platform, you’ll agree with but for the more interesting part, scroll to the bottom.
o Jim DeMint who said there was no way is now considering it.
o Sarah Palin is doing what ever the heck she is doing.
o Rick Perry is now re-considering it.
o Mike Huckabee said he might reconsider (please, no!)
o Chris Christie is talking to people in Iowa even though he says he’s not considering it
Personally, I blame Mitch Daniels (or maybe Cheri Daniels since the marriage thing appears to be the issue).
Don’t get me wrong, I’m fine with Tea-Paw if that’s where we need to go.
My platform would be pretty standard fair for a conservative:
DISCLAIMER
I was a Daniels supporter until he dropped out. Now, I’m leaning heavily towards Pawlenty.
LAST MONTH’S NUMBERS:
Individuals:
Obama 46% (but the only DEM)
Pawlenty 9%
Romney 8.25
Huckabee 7%
Barbour 5.5%
Bachmann 4.5%
Palin 4%
Daniels 3.25%
Guiliani 3.00%
Huntsman 2.75%
Cain 2.5%
Trump 2.25%
Gingrich 2.0%
NOW TO MAY:
METHODOLOGY
1) Estimate the chances of a certain candidate to win the GOP primary
2) Estimate the chances of that person to win the general against Obama
3) Do the multiplication to get each individual Republican’s chances of winning
4) Do the subtraction and addition to compute a Democratic president vs Republican president
GOP PRIMARY — Chances to win
Pawlenty, Romney — 20% (best organizations)
Palin, Huntsman — 15% (Palin is Palin, Huntsman has the media on his side)
Gingrich, Cain — 10% Really running and have some things to say, but also have baggage
Bachmann, Guiliani — 5% (very long shots)
Yep … that’s how I see the GOP race …Romney and Pawlenty have the edge so far.
CHANCES IN THE GENERAL(These are the same as previously):
Romney vs Obama — 55% (would be 60% if not for RomneyCare)
Pawlenty vs Obama — 60% (the anti-obama)
Palin vs Obama — 40% (I know a lot of conservatives who won’t vote for her)
Bachman vs Obama — 45% (house member, lots of brash stuff out there to paint her as crazy)
Huntsman vs Obama — 55% (loses 5% for involvement in Obama cabinet)
Gingrich vs Obama — 40% (still are a lot of people with a negative opinion about Newt plus the soc-cons aren’t exactly going to rally to his side (wifes 1 to 3) … total squish on global warming as well)
Cain vs Obama — 50% (the lack of political experience will hurt him more than his executive experience will help him)
Guiliani vs Obama — 60% (I think Da Mayor will play well against Obama)
RESULTS
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT LIKELIHOOD — 54%
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT LIKELIHOOD — 48.5%
Individuals:
Obama 48.5% (but the only DEM) Up by 2.5% from previous diary
Pawlenty 12%
Romney 11%
Huntsman 8.25%
Palin 6%
Cain 5%
Gingrich 4%
Guiliani 3.00%
Bachmann 2.25%
CHANGES
Daniels and Huckabee dropping out helps Obama’s chances of re-election because they were two of the Republicans who had the best chance to beat him. It’s not saying that these others can’t, it’s just saying that Huckabee would have been a formidable challenge in the general if he survived the primary.
Newt had an amazing performance on economic issues over on CNBC. By far the best, I’ve seen from any candidate (and he is low on my list). Not a fan of Newt, but I was impressed:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000023703
So none of this is based on deep scientific polling or anything of that nature. Just twenty years experience in retail politics.
ASSUMPTIONS
I start with the assumption that Barak Obama is fairly beatable at this point in time.
The economy sucks.
Obama is trying to raise taxes while the economy sucks.
And in the meantime, he’s started a third war that we have no business fighting which should push down the left’s willingness to come out and fight (at least on the Coasts).
His “deserves re-election” and “country is headed in the right direction” numbers are horrific.
This leads to this:
Any Republican who doesn’t come across as “scary” or “stupid” has a good chance to win this thing (60%).
DISCLAIMER:
I prefer Daniels or Pawlenty (i.e if got to pick the next president and couldn’t pick me)
METHODOLOGY
1) Estimate the chances of a certain candidate to win the GOP primary
2) Estimate the chances of that person to win the general against Obama
3) Do the multiplication to get each individual Republican’s chances of winning
4) Do the subtraction and addition to compute a Democratic president vs Republican president
GOP PRIMARY — Chances to win
Pawlenty, Romney — 15% (best organizations)
Palin, Barbour, Bachman, Huckabee, — 10% (have a base to start with)
Daniels, Huntsman, Gingrich, Cain, Trump, Guiliani — 5%
Yep … that’s how I see the GOP race … I think we probably end up with Pawlenty or Romney, but they aren’t as far ahead as we might think.
CHANCES IN THE GENERAL:
Romney vs Obama — 55% (would be 60% if not for RomneyCare)
Pawlenty vs Obama — 60% (the anti-obama)
Palin vs Obama — 40% (I know a lot of conservatives who won’t vote for her)
Barbour vs Obama — 55% (loses 5% for the accent and what it represents)
Bachman vs Obama — 45% (house member, lots of brash stuff out there to paint her as crazy)
Huckabee vs Obama — 70% (would be a disaster for the country, but he would win handily)
Daniels vs Obama — 65% (a bit of my bias, but I think the country is ready for an adult conversation, I dinged him in the primary for his “social truce”)
Huntsman vs Obama — 55% (loses 5% for involvement in Obama cabinet)
Gingrich vs Obama — 40% (still are a lot of people with a negative opinion about Newt plus the soc-cons aren’t exactly going to rally to his side (wifes 1 to 3) … total squish on global warming as well)
Cain vs Obama — 50% (the lack of political experience will hurt him more than his executive experience will help him)
Trump vs Obama — 45% (we’ll never elect an actor … oh wait)
Guiliani vs Obama — 60% (I think Da Mayor will play well against Obama)
RESULTS
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT LIKELIHOOD — 54%
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT LIKELIHOOD — 46%
Individuals:
Obama 46% (but the only DEM)
Pawlenty 9%
Romney 8.25
Huckabee 7%
Barbour 5.5%
Bachmann 4.5%
Palin 4%
Daniels 3.25%
Guiliani 3.00%
Huntsman 2.75%
Cain 2.5%
Trump 2.25%
Gingrich 2.0%
Have at it!
We’ve been called to be more civil in the past few months here at Redstate so I’m going to give you a contest to let you prove that you have what it takes.
Here’s the rules:
1) In the comment section, using only POSITIVE phrases about your candidate, attempt to persuade me that your candidate is the best candidate for the GOP nomination for 2012.
2) Do not use phrases like “my candidate is the only candidate who XYZ” unless it is completely factually (i.e. Haley Barbour is the only candidate who has been the president of the RGA and the NRC).
3) Do not comment negatively on any other candidates even if you disagree with the statements given by that candidates backers.
4) Do not write pitches for more than two candidates. Let’s let everyone play.
5) Do feel free to give your pitch even if someone else has given a pitch for the candidates.
AWARDS
1) Anyone who breaks one of the rules above will be counted as a LOSER in the contest.
2) After a few days, I’ll choose what I think the best pitch for each candidate was and post this group of people as the WINNERS.
3) Anyone who keeps the rules but isn’t a WINNER will get a mention in an HONORABLE mentions comment.
So have at it.
Most of you are familiar with ColdWarrior’s push to fill the Precinct Committeemen slots of the Republican Party with conservatives and push the GOP to the right in all facets of the party platform.
To me, this should be especially true in our most conservative states, where we should be putting forth strong, Jim DeMint type conservatives.
Georgia is such a state and now is the time to take it over.
A few months ago, I said I would keep an open mind on all of the candidates and give them a pass on their previous statements as much as possible as we headed into a new campaign season.
At the bottom of my list after the 2008 primaries was Mike Huckabee. I mean the bottom, as in, behind Guiliani.
Many of you know that I am leaning towards Mitch Daniels as the GOP candidate for 2012.
This diary is not about you giving Mitch Daniels a chance in 2012.
It’s more about me opening up my mind, and all of us opening up our minds, to all of the candidates as we move forward.
One of the issues as we move forward into the race for 2012 is “How Many Choices Do We Really Have?”
I think the answer to that question is somewhat time based.
For all of 2011, I think that are choices are wide open: Palin, Jindal, Gingrich, Trump, Romney, Huckabee, Daniels, Barbour, Pawlenty, etc, etc.
There is plenty of time for us to open our minds and see what type of candidate we are looking for without judging any of them.
This is a stretch for me since I like Daniels and carry strong apprehensions about several other candidates at this time.
And the truth is that what got me started on this was listening to Palin talk the other day and feeling like I needed to push back some of my bias against her as someone who “can’t beat Obama” and try to get a fresh take on her.
Hey, I’m a spreadsheet guy so what can I say. If you prefer paper then make yourself a big table on a piece of paper. Put your top five items across the top and the ten or so candidates down the side of one piece.
What are your five issues? Abortion, Limited Government, Afghanistan, Experience, Ability to Win the General election, not a Washington type?
They could be anything that really makes a difference to you.
Maybe it’s not five issues for you. Maybe it’s three issues or even two issues this time around.
Part of what we’ve learned from the tea party movement is to do our own research and talk these things through with our friends and lead from the ground up.
Crank up Fox News, read redstate and realclearpolitics, search google news for speeches the candidates are making or look at their record — what they’ve actually done not just said.
Do this for the next six months whenever you hear something from one of the presumed candidates.
When June rolls around, it will be time to cut back the list a bit — based on fundraising, who’s really in, and who you just do and don’t like after you’ve done you’re research.
Problems happen in the Republican primary when we just line up to take the next person without really thinking about the true pros and cons that are out there in regards to who are next President could be.
We need to take an approach that will lead us to the Marco Rubio of presidential candidates — the one who will resonate with both the conservative base and the American people as a whole and it’s still too early to decide who that is going to be.
While the Republicans have generally made peace with regards to how they will proceed with earmarks, the fact that they consider them to be trivial and in the case of Jim Inhofe, the right thing to do, earmarks are the first necessary step in righting the ship.
James Madison said famously upon vetoing congressional spending that:
Such a view of the Constitution would have the effect of giving to Congress a general power of legislation instead of the defined and limited one hitherto understood to belong to them, the terms ‘common defense and general welfare’ embracing every object and act within the purview of a legislative trust.
(H/T: Americans For Prosperity
The very problem that we have with both the Democrats and the establishment Republicans (not all are RINOs) is that they love the power and the control that they get from congress. Our money is seen by them (and by the Jim Inhofe’s in particular) as THEIR money.
Who can forget such things as the Husker kickback and the Lousiana purchase as part of the healthcare bill?
Further digging by the Sunlight Foundation shows that the 11 “pro-life” Democrats who compromised their beliefs for expediancy also received larger earmarks than they had previously put in for.
The biggest issue, however, regarding earmarks is a more simple principle: earmarks give ownership.
Why is ownership a bad idea?
The reason is that while Senators due represent their state, they also are suppossed to be taking care of the Republic and protecting the constitution not playing a game of how much money can I steal from other states and take home.
Let’s say that you and I are running a small business and we sit down to cut spending. Now what happens if I control 60% of the business and you control 40% of the business and any extra money that we don’t cut comes home to one of us in a bonus? Now, how easy is it to cut. Do we cut across the board or do we argue a bit more over how that money will be spent?
Inhofe and McConnell argue that earmarks don’t cost extra, but is it easier to cut ten percent of the Department of Education’s budget or cut the extra money for Kentucky magnet schools?
Earmarks are the first step to sanity.
It’s like cutting hot fudge sundaes when starting a diet. It may only be once a week and it might be a small amount of your total calorie intake over the week’s time, but if you can’t stop eating sundaes, there’s very little chance that you’re going to give up seconds and thirds of normal food and make other hard choices in your diet plan.
Change Jar Conservative … formerly known as Oz
Some people feel this is all you need to know about my political upbringing.
Many of you know that I was a pro-life Democrat until they went instinct. I chose that road for the fondest of reasons — I knew it would drive my dad crazy if I became a Democrat (Dad thinks Rush and Hannity are moderates).
Whenever my birthday falls on the election, I do five things:
1) I go and vote (although I early voted this year)
2) I call my mother and wish her a happy “birthing day”
3) I make sure my friends know to go vote (thank you facebook)
4) I spend the day praying that God would elect the right people to lead our nation regardless of if I think I know who those people should be.
5) I spend the evening with some pizza, some pepsi, and the TV on
Now I’m going to ask you for two birthday presents today (I’m greedy that way).
#1) VOTE (you knew that was coming)
#2) Please share your “turnout” stories with us … they may not tell us ANYTHING about ANYTHING but they sure help pass the time (feel free to use my comment section)
Finally, I’m predicting +92 / 11 Senate seats for today even if the consensus seems to be 65 / 8.
I don’t believe that we won’t flip the Senate and I think that Gallup is right and if they are right, a lot more is going to go red than the “experts” say.
Yes, I know we need to vote and GOTV and harass our friends on facebook about getting out to vote.
A few points before my projections:
1) I think that the polls are still underestimating GOP turnout by 2 to 3%.
2) I think things are moving in the GOP’s direction.
So here is my, overly optomistic prediction going forward, please add your own:
House +86 (yes it’s a crazy number but if Cook says we can get 55 then I think we can push beyond it).
Senate +11 (although +8 won’t surprise me. Something between those two would surprise me).
Governors 33 at the end of the day.
I think Barney Frank will survive although I most certainly hope not.
If you read through my previous diary entries, you will find my idea about using the change piled up in your change jar to make two donations.
The first should go to someone on the RCP “Leans Republican” list and the second to someone in the tossup category.
My first donation to John Raese was met with mild applause, but my second made to Karl Rove’s American Crossroads was derided by a few people because of the Rove connection. The defense I made (and stand by) is that while I didn’t like what Rove did in the primaries, I think that American Crossroads is invaluable in their funding of house races.
Be that as it may and in the interest of keeping my conservative brethern (and sistern) on the same page, I want to make an additional donation (though it’s not coming out of my change jar money) to someone that I think we can all agree on:
Nick Popaditch
Nick is a true American hero who would be a great addition to the Congress.
His patriotism is beyond question and his stands for a strong border, lower taxes, and most of all limited government are what this movement is all about.
And to those who disagreed with my last donation, hopefully, we can agree on this one.
Onward to victory in November.
Let’s roll.
In the first of my posts, I talked here about using your change to take back America and here I discussed why Jon Raese was my first of two donations.
Instead of giving my second donation to someone I picked up off of the list for RCP, I went ahead and sent the money to Karl Rove and American Crossroads.
There were several factors that lead to me going against what I said about giving to someone on the “tossup” category of RCP’s house list (my plan as outlined).
Empty your change jar and get that money into the hands of the people who need it.
Use facebook to promote turnout.
There are some seats that might be up this election and not again for another 20 years.
Incumbancy has power and that is a power that we need to seize while we can.
Be ready for some interesting poll swings in the upcoming couple of weeks.
I fully expect that we will see the generic ballot continue to swing towards the GOP and many races solidify squarely into our camp — it’s our year.
However, I fully expect at least one race that is leaning Republican or is a tossup to widen out into a big Democratic lead (or swing from a small GOP lead to a small Democratic lead). It might be in Illinois or Washington or California or even some place we have a reasonable expectation of winning like in West Virginia.
The Democrats are furiously trying to spin narratives into October surprises for the Republicans that will cast us as crazy, racist, stupid, lying something or others. These things are unlikely to work this year, but don’t miss a couple of things that are just going to happen one way or another.
The two remaining factors that could swing things away from Republican candidates are debates and stupidity.
I have always dreaded debates from Bush looking horrible against Gore into the GOP 2008 primary debates where I watched several of my favorites crumple into non-candidates.
The fact is that every once in a while a debate will trip you up. Perhaps we’ll get lucky and people watching the debates will see what WE are seeing since they are looking for faults in the Democratic candidates this year. Perhaps they will see the Blumenthal quote about jobs or the Giannoulis basically saying he knew they were crooks but that he “didn’t know the extent of their activities.”
But some will be looking (maybe in Angle and O’Donnell’s case) for them to say the wrong thing.
And let’s not leave out stupidity. I’m talking here about a Macaca moment (although Allen got a lot of help from the media in youtube) in having that reverberate through the rest of the campaign. Someone, somewhere is going to say something stupid and blow up any momentum that they have in their campaign.
The final bit is what is going to happen on the left coast and in the North East. These people are reflexively Democrat lever pullers. While I agree that undecideds will, for the most part, vote with the Republicans (or stay home), there are a few states where I think they will either ticket split or just do what they always do — vote Democratic and hope that Obama doesn’t screw it up.
The bottom line in these last three weeks is to give what you can give, RIGHT NOW and to get your friends pointed at the polls.
Make sure the ones that travel for business vote early or get an absentee ballot.
Earlier, I discussed here how all of us can make a difference simply by emptying out our change jars every two years.
You can’t make that difference on your own, but if all of us send of $40 for this election then we can make a difference. One thousand people == $40,000. Ten thousand people == $400,000.
If you haven’t read it, click the link above, give it a quick read and come back.
In my write-up, I note that politics is a grinding business and so after dumping your change jar and dividing it up in two, you’re first donation should be to someone in the “Leans Republican” category.
The reason is that we need to have a good chance of winning with at least half of our money if we are going to continue in this business called politics. I’ve written probably $10,000 worth of checks since 1996 and nothing feels as bad as sending someone (like Jim Talent) a large donation and having him lose on election night.
To counter that, the first of the two donations should go into a race that leans Republican, but is far from a sure thing. (I’ll talk about the second in a couple of days).
One of the things that has long irritated me as a conservative is to watch conservative states like Arkansas, the Dakotas, and West Virginia constantly elect people who are much more liberal than their own state.
In fact, if I had a billion dollars, I would use every legal means that I could find to build a conservative bench and pick off as many state house seats, SOS, dog catcher, etc appointments in those four states with the ultimate goal of having 8 long term, solid conservatives in the Senate from those four states.
Enter Jon Raese.
When I saw Raese’s initial polling, I was skeptical.
Once he came out with his first ad, I saw a much more likely chance at this being a winning seat. The polls now have Raese up 5 to 6 points but those will likely tighten. RCP actually calls this a toss up still so it falls slightly outside of where I should put my first donation, but I think that at +6, we’re into leaning territory with Raese so this is where I’m going to drop my money.
When I cleaned out my change jar, the total came to $38.50.
That’s not a lot of money by itself, but I believe in one of the main Tea Party principles which is that every little bit helps and that we can take America back as a country if we each give a little time, a little energy, and a little money.
Cut that in half for two donations and Raese is getting $19.25 from me.
I’d like to encourage you to join me and do soon so that candidates can have the money to spend on TV now.
Empty your change jar and follow what I’ve outlined here.
Post a link on twitter or facebook to the changejarconservate site as well and let’s bring in some extra money in these last few weeks: http://changejarconservative.wordpress.com/tcjw/
We are in the midst of a citizen revolution unseen in our lifetime.
People have marched, people have voted in the primaries, and people have taken over their state and local parties.
Here’s another idea along the same lines.
People all over the country emptying out there change jars and making a difference together.
The theory is simple. Elections happen roughly every two years in America. If you toss fifty cents a week into your change jar and empty it September the 15th every even year, you’ll have about $50.
Can $50 change the world of politics and fund candidates that care about our long term American values?
The power of course lies in the math.
If a hundred people give $50 that is $5,000.
If a thousand people give $50 that is $50,000.
If a million people give $50, that is $50,000,000.
1) Get a change jar
2) At the end of the day, empty your purse or pockets of your change into the jar
3) Repeat
Count, roll it, and deposit into your checking account (but remember how much it was).
Next split the amount into two parts.
In the future, Change Jar Conservative may make some recommendations, but for now, let’s leverage off of some existing resources.
Below are links for the House and Senate races:
and
Use those lists and the guidelines below to pick two candidates in your state, a nearby state, or just two candidates who catches your interest.
Pick someone in the “Leans Republican” to support from either the Senate or House list. This is where the first donation goes.
Politics is a blood sport. Sometimes it only takes you one election cycle to learn that and sometimes it takes a few. It hurts to lose and it feels good to win.
The first donation will help out someone who has a good chance to win, but who probably still could really use your money. Backing someone who is a little bit ahead going into the last six weeks will give you a good chance of winning and recharging your desire to be involved in politics.
Pick someone in the “Toss Up” category to support from either the Senate or House list. This is where your second donation goes.
Winning feels good. Helping a longshot or upset victory feels even better (but happens less often).
The second donation has the chance to make a bigger difference, but also a chance to fail. That’s okay. If we don’t fail then we aren’t trying hard enough.
Help get the word out and generate momentum for the Change Jar Conservative Project.
Post a link to changejarconservative.wordpress.com or this article on your facebook or twitter account.
Follow us on twitter
If you decide to follow the change jar way, email us the amount you gave and to whom at changejarconservative@gmail.com.
We’ll total it up whether it’s a big or small amount and post the totals on Election Night Eve.
Note to the Mods: I thought I wrote this last night and put a publish date of this morning on it so if it show up again, feel free to kill the one that doesn’t have this text in it
From the Diaries by Erick.
My first political act was attending a Ronald Reagan rally back in 1980.
Since then I’ve watched with great disappointment the ability of the GOP to turn opportunities into wasted piles of crap and to push soft Republicans and weary independents into the arms of the Democrats or those who don’t vote.
Such moves have led to this kind of apathy among even people who would love to be dedicated Republicans: “Unfortunately neither party, once in power appears to be terribly concerned with limiting their own power” and “The only people I see truly dedicated to limiting government are the Tea Party, but I’m not so sure they can get enough broad support to make it happen” (both real quotes from friends of mine in response to a note I posted on facebook).
Let me ask you this question: If you were to survey ten of your closest friends who you considered soft Republicans (they either voted for Obama or considered it), what would they say the number one issue for the Republicans should be after they win in November?
I’m betting you either said “cut government spending” or “get rid of healthcare” or “make government smaller.”
Now ask them a different question. “Where did the GOP go wrong in the 1990s and the early 2000s when they had control?”
They will probably say one of two things “they spent too much” or “they wasted all their time investigating Clinton.”
At least that has been my experience in talking to my “soft” Republican and independent friends who lean conservative in their ideals.