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Some hard questions on political economy

Perhaps the simplest way to describe the difference is to say that if you’re in business enterprise, you’re exposed to very high risk of failure and bankruptcy, while if you’re in finance capitalism, you’re protected from such risks by means of an astonishing proliferation of machinations and arcane subtleties.

What if virtually every variety of debt security were still overvalued? What if, to put it another way, the aggregate demand for debt securities had fallen off dramatically and never returned to its pre-crisis state? What if virtually every imaginable mechanism of accounting legerdemain, every method of budgetary chicanery, every generous wink-and-nod easement, every facility of subtle support for usury, had been employed in the effort to prevent the pain of that massive loss in demand from being felt?

Back up a step. What if, right alongside an unprecedented rhetorical and regulatory onslaught on business enterprise, we were living under an unprecedented coddling of finance capitalism?

Well, these are tough questions that I do not propose to answer with any finality. But I do think that, at the highest levels of financial sophistication, the global political economy is still in such a state of flux and disorder that any statement pretending toward finality ought to be treated with the utmost skepticism. Thus I do think that we must strive by all the means of our appointment, to realize that the political economies of the world are still adrift in uncharted seas. Uncertainty still reigns supreme; and we all must be ready to observe and record facts that may well disturb our prior certainties. We have to keep these sorts of questions open, and maintain a hardly skepticism of that ideological frame of mind which would close them prematurely.

Consider the absolutely extraordinary reversal in the political-economic dynamics between the US and Europe. To me is a truly staggering feature of the last six months. Something has really put the scare in European leaders; to the extent that real honest-to-goodness fiscal austerity, far from being merely proposed in oratory, or recommended by wonky financiers, is actually being implemented, right in the teeth of the usual union-led demonstrations. Meanwhile, the US has only gotten as far as a few lower-level pols and former pols throwing out some austerity-like ideas. On the American Right, the newest hotshot — a paunchy and pugnacious Governor of New Jersey — is only just now pressing openly (and then only at the state level) for the kind of policies that European leaders like David Cameron and Angela Merkel have started to implement at the national level. Then there is the old union-friendly paleo-Left in America, those aging social democrats of Marxian cast: these guys have spent their entire careers praising European redistributionist politics, and now the poor fellows find themselves driven by events to curse and harangue the same.

I hasten to add that for myself, at least, the question of whether fiscal austerity is wise — whether current European policies are the best ones — ones that we should emulate — is a question I’m going to resolutely keep open. I’m happy to let the Europeans run this experiment first.

It’s possible that austerity will prove both wise and necessary (it will never, I am convinced, prove popular, despite the populist agitation that appears to support it). But it is also possible that it will prove a craven capitulation to usurers and plutocrats. Today European officials, as reported by the Financial Times, had to come out and reassure bond investors that any “haircut” on their investments in public debt securities will be purely “voluntary.” Why this particular class of investors and speculators should receive an indirect promise to be made whole is not altogether clear to me. And one cannot fail to detect the note of blackmail in it: “make us whole on our unwise investments or we will sink your pitiful economies.”

Haircuts of a different sort, meanwhile, are contemplated for the middle classes of the West. In Europe (since so many of the middle classes are public sector workers) it will come in the form of benefits, salary and job-security reductions; while in America it may well take the form of new taxes. The US deficit commission has floated the idea of removing the mortgage interest deduction, which would frankly be a punch in the gut to millions of middle class Americans.

So the question naturally arises, why in the hell should the bond financiers be coddled with comical “voluntary” haircuts, while middle class folks are forced to eat the bitter gruel of more straitened conditions? (For one thing, there is this complication: in many cases they are the same people. In other words, a good chunk of Western middle classes consists of folks on fixed incomes — pensions, retirement funds, etc. — derived precisely from … securities markets, and especially from bond security yields.)

As I say, we face some really tough questions; and I’m suspicious of anyone who thinks he’s got the ready answers. But the one proposition I am fairly confident about is that it is high time we acknowledged (and this goes especially for people on the Right) that business enterprise and finance capitalism are not the same thing. Perhaps the simplest way to describe the difference is to say that if you’re in business enterprise, you’re exposed to very high risk of failure and bankruptcy, while if you’re in finance capitalism, you’re protected from such risks by means of an astonishing proliferation of machinations and arcane subtleties. This would explain, in part, the rush of big industrial firms over the past few decades to get into securities markets. From AIG to GE to Walmart, many years it redounded to the corporation’s benefit to become a major player in some particular niche of securities trading: that is the path to the promised land of Too Big to Fail.

If, being a big bank, you deal directly with the Federal Reserve (or any other monetary authority) there is a good chance that, in a pinch, you can cheerfully sell government securities for new currency that didn’t exist before the sale. In other words, you can sell a stagnant or highly volatile security and get newly-created money in return. That this operation is given a puzzling piece of jargon as its name — quantitative easing — and is undertaken with apparently genuine assurances that it will help the broader economy too, in no way alters how nice a deal it is for the primary dealers.

When you add this in with all the other sweet deals extended to banks since the crisis of 2007-08, you start to realize that maybe the banks couldn’t survive at all without sweet deals — lots of sweet deals, all wrapped in a similar shroud of technical obscurity. So hear is another hard question: did our banking crisis ever actually end? Maybe, in fact, the sweet deals are little more than a complex structure of life support measures — increasingly desperate life support measures — for a financial system still saddled with vastly overvalued debt securities.

COMMENTS

  • http://www.flaliberty.org scorpio0679

    This shouldn’t even be a question anymore. It is becoming increasingly obvious what is going on. It also delineates a very clear difference between what is going on in Europe and what is going on in the US. Let me explain.

    What happens when demand for “debt securities” i.e. government bonds, dries up (based on simple lack of demand or increasing risk) to the point where there are not enough buyers to fund government operations? Two things must happen at that time. Either: (a) you are forced to spend less money because there is no more money in the bank; or (b) you are forced to print new money to ‘exchange’ for the government bonds to pay for ongoing government operations.

    Europe has chosen to face the reality that they cannot sustain their current government operations. They simply cannot find buyers for their bonds. The U.S., on the other hand, has chosen to print more money to pay for ongoing government operations.

    Hence, ‘quantitative easing.’ I believe, as do others (who are currently a minority), that QE is less to do about stimulating the economy (Bernanke’s stated purpose) and more to do with protecting U.S. treasuries than it does stimulating the economy.

    If Bernanke doesn’t engage in QE, either interest rates will skyrocket and destroy the federal budget, or the federal government will run out of money.

    I believe the federal government should RUN OUT OF MONEY so that they are forced to REDUCE SPENDING (or increase taxes—which is politically unpopular).

    STOP SPENDING STOP SPENDING STOP SPENDING STOP SPENDING STOP SPENDING!!! That is the only answer to this problem!

    • http://beaglescout.wordpress.com Beaglescout

      At least in the US there are many government programs and departments that produce nothing that anyone wants. They could be cut without much of an outcry. Energy, Education, EPA, FCC, FEC… Even CPB could be cut since anyone with a brain knows that the supposed purpose of CPB, to provide diverse programming in a 30-years-gone world of three national TV networks, is baloney given 300+ channels on every cable or dish connected TV.

    • Paul Cella

      The unhealthy power of finance is real too.

      What happens when demand for ?debt securities? i.e. government bonds, dries up

      Well, “debt securities” is not a category coextensive with “government bonds.” The acute crisis in 2008 was a consequence of collapsing private financial markets. There was and is, for instance, an enormous problem in mortgage-backed securities. It was commercial paper that nearly ruined GE. It was CDS on mortgage paper than ruined AIG. Etc., etc.

      Many of these instruments are innovations from the private sector. The derivatives markets in particular, are authentic refinements and innovations made by men in private enterprise. We cannot blame government for the invention of these debt securities.

      I believe the federal government should RUN OUT OF MONEY so that they are forced to REDUCE SPENDING

      How can the owner of the printing press run out of money?

      In any case, the government does not exhaust the problems we face. This is a deeper matter than simply the disorder of American public-private balance, in my view.

      • http://www.flaliberty.org scorpio0679

        Sorry, I thought that you were referring to government bonds in your reference to “public debt securities” . . . I was responding to that only. I’ve re-read your post in its entirety and would like to offer the following in addition to what I wrote above:

        Maybe, in fact, the sweet deals are little more than a complex structure of life support measures ? increasingly desperate life support measures ? for a financial system still saddled with vastly overvalued debt securities.

        This is absolutely without question. The TARP bailouts did nothing to cure the fact that millions of homeowners are defaulting on their mortgages, sending the value of the mortgage-backed securities into the tank.

        I don’t think these instruments are overvalued, however. They are simply being offset by greater liquidity. So instead of an empty toilet bowl full of crap, you’ve filled the toilet with water so it doesn’t stink. It doesn’t change the fact that you are still holding a toilet bowl full of crap.

        The original TARP plan was for the government to physically take possession of these instruments – but for what? What is fair market value for these assets? In order for this to work, the Treasury would have had to pay the face value of the instruments — which is laughable because then you’ve rewarded the idiots who made these investments in the first place. Look at the micro level. Home values have crashed. In some places in Florida (where I’m from), home prices are barely 1/3 of what they were pre-crash. Unbelievble! To saddle taxpayers with these assets while rewarding the firms who engaged in what was essentially the greatest financial fraud in decades would have been completely unacceptable.

        So they loan the money at low interest rates so that they can carry the soured assets. But the rot is still there.

        The only cure to the disease is for the housing market to find its true bottom and to let the foreclosure backlog to clear (it will be years, based on the reset dates of adjustable rate loans). Once this happens, it is my belief that housing prices will spike dramatically as the downward pressure of foreclosures is removed.

        Again, it will take years. I suspect it will take until 2016 at the very minimum for real estate to stabilize at its ‘true’ value, which of course will be much less than the inflated prices at the height of the bubble.

        Meanwhile, if you have cash and can wait a few years, now’s the time to get into real estate!

        Today European officials, as reported by the Financial Times, had to come out and reassure bond investors that any ?haircut? on their investments in public debt securities will be purely ?voluntary.? Why this particular class of investors and speculators should receive an indirect promise to be made whole is not altogether clear to me. And one cannot fail to detect the note of blackmail in it: ?make us whole on our unwise investments or we will sink your pitiful economies.?

        Okay, this is where you totally lose me. It seems perfectly obvious to me why they are reassuring their bond investors that they will be made whole. It is because these idiot governments wish to continue borrowing to fund unsustainable spending. Government bonds are supposed to be the safest investment. Where does capital flee to when government bonds are no longer safe? Gold? It’s already happening.

        Governments must get their fiscal houses in order and balance budgets – FAST. In the U.S., the Fed is enabling the addict by monetizing the public debt. It can’t go on. The Fed is bailing out the federal government with ‘quantitative easing’ — but the game is up. The U.S. has perhaps one year, maybe less, to get uncontrolled deficits back in line before we will start to experience real serious pain.

        I just feel bad for anyone with savings out there, because they will be destroyed. The winners are the losers, and the losers are the winners in this game.

        PS. the federal government doesn’t control the printing press, the Federal Reserve does. The Fed is a private entity. It has the power to hold the government accountable by NOT monetizing the debt. Let them run out of money and force them to make the hard choices.

        • earlgrey

          Should we be expecting the dollar and worldwide ecnoomy to collapse a la Glenn Beck’s prediction?

          • http://www.flaliberty.org scorpio0679

            My personal thought is that the Fed will continue to float the U.S. until we can extract Obama and the rest of the imbedded roaches from the U.S. Senate — and at that point, IF we defeat Obama and IF Republicans earn a majority in the senate, we might be able to save ourselves by balancing the budget in 2013.

            It will be absolutely draconian, though, but it MUST be done. As an aside, I think that the dems understand what is happening as well — only they want to balance the budget with massive tax increases, not massive spending cuts. Said otherwise, the issue isn’t whether we should balance the budget, but how to do it.

          • earlgrey

            A compromise that puts us closer to the economies of Europe or holding out until 2012 to make real changes to seriously shrink the Government? I can’t decide myself. Part of me is so freaked I want to go buy a bunch of dried food.

          • http://www.flaliberty.org scorpio0679

            I am totally with Erick on this issue. No compromise. The House needs to block all attempts at raising taxes, and tie increases in the debt ceiling to major cuts in spending. I think the American people are fed up and in line with this (I hope!). The bottom line question is: how much of our freedom do we want to cede to the federal government? in my opinion, they’ve overdrafted their account by a fairly large margin and need to be reigned in.

  • The_Gadfly

    I am reminded of the Steven Wright skit: “Somebody broke into my house, stole all the furniture, and replaced it with exact duplicates.”

    If everything is overvalued by the same amount, you don’t really have a problem. You only have a problem when something is overvalued relative to something else. This is exactly what happened to the MBS market. The MSB were held at value 10X. Then for some reason a particular holder of MSBs found them to be of value 9X. But that either left the under capitalized under GAAP rules or didn’t meet their cash flow needs. So they dumped more of their MSBs and drove the price down to 8X. Other investors found themselves in the same situation, and the result has been that MSBs now have an effective value of 0X. Which isn’t right because the MSBs still generate some cash flow, but it is the way it is. But these changes in MSBs have rippled through to other real assets, because real assets needed to be sold to meet cash flow or capitalization needs.

    The problem now is there is no way to walk back what happened to MSBs and the rest of the asset market. In theory, TARP was supposed to provide government money to buy the toxic portion of the MSBs and re-establish the value of the MSB at some significant portion of 10X. But they pulled a bait and switch on us, so we still have the toxic assets PLUS the added debt.

    So I think Scorpio is partly on the right track back: Government needs to stop the wasteful transfer payments. Investment is okay, but it needs to be real capital investment, not make-shift jobs work or welfare payments. Even Social Security doesn’t help build the economy back up. The most important change government can make, is to stop strangling business development with talk of raising taxes and regulations. Start rolling it back so that American businesses can start investing in real capital projects that will increase jobs because they have also increased productivity.

    And yes, banks and related financial firms probably need to have more direct exposure to risk than they currently do as part of the restructuring to avoid these problems in the future. I’d start with Freddie and Fannie. Everybody else will get the message as soon as they are dealt with.

    • Paul Cella

      The most important change government can make, is to stop strangling business development with talk of raising taxes and regulations. Start rolling it back so that American businesses can start investing in real capital projects that will increase jobs because they have also increased productivity.

      Yes, agreed.

      My point is that it aint just government, though. The amount of capital we have thrown away into the hi-tech gambling joints of securities markets is appalling to reflect on. We all need to repent of this fundamentally liberal and materialist notion of the creative power of man being able to be captured in probabilistic modeling and super-sophisticated calculus. Prosperity lies in the older vision of man the steward, the image-bearing of the Creator. That creative power is mysterious. We should humble ourselves, no boast of our greatness. To labor is to pray, as the Benedictines (whose work with the monasteries was an extraordinary generator of prosperity) remind us.

      • http://www.flaliberty.org scorpio0679

        Paul, the problem with the mortgage backed securities crisis wasn’t the form of the instrument, but the underlying investment.

        All these things are are ownership shares of entities that hold mortgage promissory notes. That’s it. it’s actually a pretty efficient way of investing in real estate. The problem is, the investment — the actual mortgages — were crap.

        Why were they crap? Widespread financial fraud. Mortgage brokers doing anything for a big commission. Borrowers who thought prices would keep going up and they’d just “re-fi” in three years when their interest-only low introductory rate was scheduled to reset.

        • Paul Cella

          We had presages of ruin ten years earlier, when all the rocket science modeling behind the bond arbitrage at Long-Term Capital Management fell apart. That mess was cleaned up with no public capital staked, but it was nonetheless a crucial piece of the TBTF puzzle.

          • http://www.scragged.com petrarch

            There is nothing wrong with people investing using fancy models, if they think that’s what they want to do. It’s no different conceptually from people who invest based on closing their eyes and sticking a pin into the WSJ. It’s their money, it’s their business.

            The ONLY problem here is TBTF, and the solution to that has been around for a century: Anti-trust law. If a bank is too big to fail, it’s too big too EXIST and needs to be broken up.

            Not having our entire financial system hostage to these monster banks would solve most of the problems you are describing. In diversity and competition there is strength.

  • onehutu

    And the follow up posts reflect a good understanding of the issues. It is terrific to see this debate being started in this forum; let’s hope more people are reading it. Although Paul does not explicitly argue it, I believe that after the bail outs of the banks, which essentially was shifting private sector losses to the public, real financial reform (i.e. eliminate the risk of “too big to fail”) should have been possible. Instead we ended up with an ugly piece of legislation that will do little to avert the next crisis.

    • onehutu

      Sorry to reply to my own comment, but what do I see now? BofA is in deep trouble and likely to need to be bailed out (again)? This is a racket and the only practical solutions I see are that Bof A is a) bailed out again, transferring it’s losses to the taxpayer b) allowed to simply fail with the damage accruing to BofA shareholders and bondholders or c) nationalize BofA and turn it into a sort of public utility ala the Bank of North Dakota.

  • wattchildress

    The Wall Steet bailouts failed on the first vote in the House because conservatives and progressives were able to forge a coalition. The same coalition joined forces in the 90s to challenge Most Favored Nation trade status with China.

    Can we support that kind of bridge-building in order to counter the crony capitalists who’ve squandered our limited resources? I pray we can.

  • JSobieski

    Or maybe there are so many stupid obstacles in business finance, that smart people dedicated to making money just flock to finance capitalism.

    The hassles of buiding factories and manufacturing products are just too great in comparison to the finance capitalism game.

    The accumulative impact of our laws and regulations almost make us idiots for not trying to break into the Wall Street game. The ground rules make other types of profit making ventures less and less desirable to those who are able to get a seat at the Wall Street table.

  • Death_of_the_Donkey

    There is no reason to be first in line to try the austerity experiment, because failure (failure being defined as a falling economy) likely puts us into a depression. Also, I would note that all the other countries going the austerity route are also raising taxes, as it is virtually impossible to make up the budget problems with cuts alone (unless you are willing to risk depression or willing to give up our military). And, as we have seen with the deficit commission report, even the (so-called) conservatives here are unwilling to give up THEIR subsidies (ie the mortgage interest deduction) in order to fix our deficit problem.

    • JSobieski

      nt

      • Death_of_the_Donkey

        and phasing in is probably necessary (although with the overall lower brackets I am not sure we would need to phase it much). However, quite a few people here made comments that appeared completely opposed to eliminating this market skewing subsidy over any time period.