« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

CO, PA, IL, and WV. The final push in the Senate races

By: RealQuiet (Diary)  |  October 20th, 2010 at 09:15 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

From the diaries by Erick

There is a second poll out this morning showing Joe Sestak leading Pat Toomey 44-41 in the race for the Pennsylvania Senate seat.  Now, I take these college/university polls with a grain of salt so you can take it for what what it is worth.  However, looking at the internals of this poll, they don’t seem that much out of left field.  Rasmussen put Toomey up by 10 recently so I have to wonder what is going on to show these polls are varying so much.  The first poll showing Sestak in the lead, PPP, which is now the pollster for the liberal blog, The Daily Kos, showed a 1 point Sestak lead with a turnout model indicating that Democrats would show up in greater numbers in 2008 which I highly, highly doubt will happen this election cycle.

Looking over the entire Senate landscape, it is apparent that Dino Rossi and Carly Fiorina are flush with cash and are in great shape coming down the stretch to boot out Patty Murray and Barbara Boxer.  President Obama has been making quite a few visits to Washington state and Democrats are visibly concerned with this race. Sharron Angle is now putting some distance between herself and Harry Reid and is very much flush with cash as well.

The four races that could use a money push to get those candidates over the finish line appear to be Colorado, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and West Virginia.  Things in Colorado look to have tightened considerably over the last two weeks with recent polling showing a 2-3 point lead for Ken Buck.  Illinois has been neck and neck for some time now.  I have to like Kirk’s chances in Illinois with Bill Brady polling so strongly over Pat Quinn and will generate some powerful downstate coattails for Mark Kirk.  However, this race is very, very tight with a lot of undecided voters.  Finally, John Raese is holding a slight lead over Joe Manchin and looks in pretty good shape.  He had an outstanding debate performance a couple of nights back and is really going to be making a hard push in the final two weeks.

Turnout is key always in elections.  Don’t be complacent.  Vote on November 2nd.

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • rdelbov

    add that if you know of anyone in battleground states a little one on one encouragement would be great.

  • bluerose75

    Real Quiet this poll was out yesterday afternoon..who cares…400LV with a college poll you must be kidding. I am so darn sick and tired of Conservatives getting sucked in with this garbage. PPP is a darn joke. This polling firm has affectively stunted Conservatives again yesterday with their joke of a poll. RCP lables them with a (D) which in years past they did not. It is well known now the over sampling PPP does for DEMS. This has been happening since Oct 1st. They have not had a REPUB ahead in any race basically and people get all bent out of shape over a poll that is so distorted yet they have changed the discussion with so many pundits and bloggers crying the their soup!!

    How can you people claim to have intelligence and guts and yet are so easily dupped. I mean now PPP will give Sestak a rallying cry, all they want to do is ENERGIZE DEMS and demoralize REPUBS. And from all the whining going on..IT WORKED!!! The MSM picks up and blasts in to PA, headlines chant “SESTAK MAKING COMEBACK” and the DEMS can now sya GET OUT LOOK WE ARE COMING BACK….REPUBS…boo hoo cry and pout and once again are beaten by the DEMS. It is pathetic.

    Who cares if Zogby, Ramsmussen and Gallup show the difference in Congressional Ballots. Just look at Zogby’s analysis yesterday…even Zogby will tell you REPUBS are going to make big gains. Dick Morris, one of the most in touch politically savy men, is telling us the polling this year across the board is understating REPUBS numbers and inflating DEM numbers. But who cares PPP says SESTAK up by 1….and look at all the whiners and self-doubters. It is such a joke. And you wonder why the press makes all of you look so foolish. You let them set the narrartive and all of you fall apart.

    PPP oversamples DEMS and is blantant about it but they care about the narrative they have given the DEMS a battle cry and from the looks of the things REPUBS are beaten again. BY ONE DARN POLL!! GROW UP!!

    I live in FLORIDA and it was PPP back in Sept that made Charlie Crist think in a three way race he was even with Rubio even ahead. And guess what Crist ran Third Party!! And we are still dealing with it, PPP!!! And then last week PPP again puts out a poll in Florida shoing without Meek….Crist and Rubio were tied at 46 percent. AND BAM magically Robert Kennedy Jr appears to endorse Charlie Crist and the Chairman of the Democratic Party in Palm Beach County says that Meek cannot win and we need to back Crist. And then Friday a major member of the DNC comes to Florida to talk to Bob Graham to see if he can get Meek to drop out. ALL OF THIS BECAUSE OF PPP!!! This organization wants precious resources the REPUBS can use in NV, CA, CO, WV and WA to de diverted back to PA so that the candidates in truely contested contests will have breathing room while all of a sudden money is diverted to PA for Toomey. It is so tranparent!!

    There is no way the DEM turnout will be higher in 2010 than 2008 for Obama in PA. But PPP achieved its goal yesterday and many of us fell right into the trap!! And this college poll means nothing but reinforces so many week spined Conservatives to PANIC!!!

    Shame on those who can realize what BS this is!!

    • proudgop

      What I find interesting in CO is the Gov Race numbers which show Hickenlooper at 46% top and he has had eveyr break u can get and still can’t get past 46% which means that might be base for Bennett

      Buck needs to be getting some of these people voting for Tancredo and Maes but not him yet

      • Coop

        He’s not going to win. In each of the last four polls Bennet received exactly 45% of the vote. And out of 33 different polls the incumbent Bennet has hit a high of 46% exactly three times.

        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/co/colorado_senate_buck_vs_bennet-1106.html#polls

        Strong conservative turnout in Colorado is still critical, however, as the Dems are in serious danger of losing CO-03, CO-04 and CO-07.

    • expatuae

      O’donnell is causing Toomey problems for Toomey in Philadelphia media market (same as Deleware).

      Republicans don’t win unless they win the Philly suburbs which are turned off by conservative social issues generally and O’Donnell in particular.

      This got me to send more money to Toomey. Everyone else should do the same.

    • jomo2009

      tell us how you REALLY feel. I concur entirely with your post. C’mon Nov. 2!!

    • seattlebruce

      How can you people claim to have intelligence and guts and yet are so easily dupped. I mean now PPP will give Sestak a rallying cry, all they want to do is ENERGIZE DEMS and demoralize REPUBS. And from all the whining going on..IT WORKED!!! The MSM picks up and blasts in to PA, headlines chant ?SESTAK MAKING COMEBACK? and the DEMS can now sya GET OUT LOOK WE ARE COMING BACK?.REPUBS?boo hoo cry and pout and once again are beaten by the DEMS. It is pathetic.”

      This is push polling in a nutshell. It’s what democRATs do. I think RealQuiet does a decent job of pointing out the problems with them, and calling people pathetic for decrying or moaning about push polling is I think a misguided approach. We need to simply acknowledge the illigetimacy of these push polls and point like crazy to the legit polls, and get that word out across the blogosphere – and stick together.

    • seattlebruce

      “It is pathetic.”

      This is push polling in a nutshell. It’s what democRATs do. I think RealQuiet does a decent job of pointing out the problems with them, and calling people pathetic for decrying or moaning about push polling is I think a misguided approach. We need to simply acknowledge the illigetimacy of these push polls and point like crazy to the legit polls, and get that word out across the blogosphere – and stick together.

    • RealQuiet

      I pointed out to take university polls with a grain of salt. You have to remember that Obama has made a few visits to Philly recently to try to encourage the voters in that Democratic heavy city to come out. I’m not trying to give the impression of despair. I am saying don’t get complacent. Pennsylvania is actually a pretty Democratic state with Dems having a 1 million registered voter advantage.

      Think about the strategy of this. If we can pour money into CO, WV, IL, and PA and help secure a GOP sweep of the Senate seats along and east of the Mississippi River, the Democratic voters out in the Mountain West and the Pacific whom are in different time zones will see the wave coming at them, get even more depressed than they already are, and be more inclined to stay home.

      Angle, Rossi, and Fiorina are flush with cash and surging so the focus needs to be on these four states which show close to moderately close races. Great poll with John Raese surging to a 7 point lead again via Rasmussen.

  • bluerose75

    Shame on those who cannot realize how politics is played and how to win. The mental state is everything in this!! You better toughen up and realize what you see is what you see but when you take your eye off the ball that is when you lose sight of your goal.

    As well spare me the Spector/Sestak and how Sestak came back. Spector shot himself in the foot!! The DEMS never trusted him and my goodness Arlen’s personality could chill a man in the middle of Jamaica!! The two are not comparable.

    Toomey is in very good shape but our overreaction could very well change some of the dynamics!

    • SIConservative

      Maybe we’ll take you seriously when you learn how to spell names correctly…. Maybe.

    • seattlebruce

      “Toomey is in very good shape but our overreaction could very well change some of the dynamics!”

      What are Conservatives saying about the phony push polls, other than what you’re saying? I don’t see Conservative crying about this frankly. Maybe you can point us to some blogs where that is happening?

    • RealQuiet

      But the countereffect that push polls from these Democratic pollsters have is agitating the voter base of the political party who is looking likely to win. And that appears to what these push polls have done to you bluerose…which is a very good thing :)

  • Superheater

    Is on November 2..

    I’ll crawl over broken glass to vote for Toomey. How somebody can rise to the rank of Admiral and then be associated with the party that is so utterly devoid of honor and integrity, bespeaks something of a character defect.

    Ditto on Corbett. I’m sure Corbett will be a pro-life version of Ridge, but that’s still preferable to Onarato, who at one time was a CPA, but is now an embarrassment to the profession.

    http://www.licensepa.state.pa.us/Details.aspx?agency_id=1&license_id=124771&

    I don’t underestimate the appeal of the “Rich Republican” BS in Allegheny, Philadelphia, Luzerne, Lackawanna and a few other counties..

    Make sure you urge keystoners to vote!

    • nepanyrush

      I live in Lackawanna and don’t understand this mindset applied to this area. We are a blue-collar, largely ethnic Catholic area. My struggle here is with our liberal, obamacare supporting, Democratic Congressman touting the NRA endorsement. Just received one of these calls myself, that made it seem as if the NRA itself was calling me, but I finally realized it was just a Carney supporting saying she was an NRA member. If Carney is re-elected, it will be because of the NRA.

      • Scope

        statement comes from either. I was born in, and grew up in Luzerne county, and that is also very much a blue collar area, that has been overtaken by the illegals. The only people of the area that would be saying the Rich Republicans would be the illegal community that supports the redistribution of wealth mantra. I have faith that Lou Barletta will send the corrupt Kanjorski home this November.

  • spinoneone

    “Looking over the entire Senate landscape, it is apparent that Dino Rossi and Carly Fiorina are flush with cash and are in great shape coming down the stretch to boot out Patty Murray and Carly Fiorina”

    Well, I’m guessing, just guessing mind you, that you meant BOXER, er, Ma’am Senator….no longer.

    • RealQuiet

      Correction made :)

  • IJB

    They simply didn’t “push” undecideds and leaners. That’s the only way to get 5-10% of Toomey’s support to magically *evaporate*, while leaving Sestak’s numbers basically unchanged from other polling.

    This is not the first poll this cycle to pull this trick (there was an earlier poll out of NV that seemed to play the same trick on Angle).

    IOW, earlier posters are correct – I consider this to be another bogus poll, not worth getting worked up about…

    • congressworksforus

      And at this point, any poll not including leaners is manufacturing a result they want to see.

      Add in leaners, and this poll could easily be 51-45 Toomey.

  • Southpaw75

    is right in that the only reason PPP and colleges release these bogus polls is to make Dems think they have a reasonable shot and get unenthused D’s to the polling place on 11/2.

    • seattlebruce

      “and get unenthused D?s to the polling place on 11/2.”

      …by the time 11/2 even arrives. The RATs doom is already half baked in.

  • chbroussard

    I know that everyone here at Redstate is willing to crawl on glass to vote on Nov 2. But there may be some R’s in Indie’s who think the race is won and that their vote isn’t really needed. This could change their minds, and they just might decide they had better crawl across that glass with us.

    • AF Sarge (Ret)

      Keep the enthusiasm up!

      Sarge

  • bluerose75

    This election cycle is very telling. When all is said and done PPP will be shown for what they are. Moe Lane tells us the guy behind PPP is a good guy. I am so sick of that as well. The man is a manipulator and some the nicest people in the world are CON MEN. See Bill Clinton. Has there ever been an audience that after he left that did not offer him a complimentary membership. Integrity is earned by people of character. Being a partisan hack is exactly what it is!!!

    I credit Rasmussen because he tries to maintain objectivity!! IJB thank you for the insight on the Muhlenberg Poll. Time and time again pollsters are able to twist or bring about a desired result. IT IS CALLED SHOCK VALUE!!

    What is pathetic is when you see MR SOUR PANTS Jim Geraghty himself put “PANIC PANIC” as a headline. Is he for real?? The same sour grape cheerleader was acting so full of himself about his “brilliant but uninsightful analysis of the PPP poll in PA and then falls like a house of cards over Muhlenberg. Can anyone tell me how NRO would employ such a negative and generally clueless man. He acts like he knows everything yet he PRESENTS NOTHING!!

    • seattlebruce

      Thanks for the specifics on who’s sounding the panic button. That is ridiculous. Agreed.

  • DocJohn

    Is anybody watching the “professional vote fraud” gang, better
    known as A.C.O.R.N.? Do you really expect “Erick the Red” Holder
    to do anything but aid and abet the outright “stealing of this
    election” in the interest of “fairness”?
    We MUST be vigilant this election season more than any other.
    We are a VERY REAL THREAT to the Marxists, and it caught them
    by surprise early on, but now they have circled the wagons. The
    rule of law, in any form, is meaningless to these, … these … (Sorry,
    there is just no word I can find to adequately describe these
    Maoist worshiping, children exploding/smothering bane of
    humanity.)
    I see the baseless LIES from the NATIONAL DISGRACE OF THE
    PRESIDENCY against the US Chamber of Commerce last week as
    synonymous to a smuggled out message from Bin Laden to his
    minions and “sleeper cells” to “launch against the infidels”. The
    lies have spread like a disease into 100′s of socialist/democrat
    campaigns … coincidence? Don’t be so naive!
    Voter fraud is ramping up as we speak, under the cover of the
    Alinsky inspired socialist democrat “GOTV machine”. Is the list of
    democrat and selected independents exposed here on RS
    designed to invite “identity theft”, or is it meant to provide a
    plausible name list for the “useful idiots” of A.C.O.R.N. to manufacture votes nationwide? Speaking of identity theft, what
    was that outfit that was actively recruiting people actually convicted
    of identity theft? Need a hint? Starts with an A.?
    Already, The Socialist Republic of New York has decided that the
    overseas military will be denied the right to vote. Hey, here’s an
    idea for the NY Fascists: If it takes 45 days to get the military vote,
    THEN YOU WILL WAIT 45 DAYS FROM THE DAY YOU SEND
    THEM OR YOU WILL BE TRIED, CONVICTED AND IMPRISONED
    FOR VOTE TAMPERING AND FRAUD!!! By the way, the buck stops
    with the State Attorney General for this fraud. So I ask you New
    Yorkers, do you really want your Senator to serve his term from a
    prison cell?
    The lying ads are just the beginning. The “Steal this election at all
    costs” campaign is underway. The “end justifies the means” and
    that is ANY means! Laws, facts and science are mere nuisances
    to be overcome to “Save America From the American People”.

    Stay frosty Redstaters. We are the Watchdogs of Liberty! It will get
    worse and WE ARE A THREAT.

    Doc

    • DocJohn

      “So I ask you New
      Yorkers, do you really want your Governor to serve his term from a
      prison cell?”

    • bclare

      Don’t believe they were caught off guard. They were all way too quite when this started. What seemed like acceptance that the Tea Party and Repubs would be winning… was really their planning period. They are calm because they know they will steal the ones they need. Toomey for one will face a mountain of fraud. Remember the New Black Panther goons?

      DO NOT count out Illinois. And you think the union thugs in California will play nice? Jerry has them wrapped up and Ma’am Boxer will benefit on the ticket.

      We need to get out the vote. They will cheat. It is their only recourse.

  • Martin Knight

    “Ignore the polls!” is not a strategy I find particularly useful or even intelligent – but this is almost certainly a manufactured poll to raise Democrat morale.

    Ignore *this* poll.

    • IJB

      I’ll pay attention to Ras, SurveyUSA, Mason-Dixon, and some of the others for statewide or House polling. But most of the college-run polls are junk, and I no longer trust anything out of PPP (when PPP is showing results like a more Dem-over-Republican electorate in 2010 than the *underlying demographics of a state*(!!) they can no longer be taken seriously…).

  • ctpsb

    I basically agree with the last few comments. I’m not saying it’s not possible but I don’t see how Republicans can lead by so much in generic Gallup polls, many House races, have SO FAR probably an edge in early and absentee ballot turnout but yet lost 10 points from last Rasmussen poll in less than a week absent a major event.
    However let’s just use these last two polls as further motivation to not let up until the last poll closes on November 2nd anywhere (esp in blue states like Pennsylvania). Keep after all your family, friends, co-workers, neighbors, little league parents etc to vote Republican!!

  • bluerose75

    Ctpsb you are correct we must turn out and never allow ourselves to become lackluster. Morale is only depressed if you allow yourself to be swayed by pure emotion without rationale. Stop and think! Use your own intuition and you will never be swayed by frauds.

    Conservatives are eager based on principle…liberals are eager based on illusions and false promises. Principle will always triumph because it comes from within while promises come from external forces driven by cause.

    Conservatives will be out in force!! We all feel it and sense it!!! The only leverage the MSM and liberals have is the same they have always had: DECEPTION, FEAR, ENTITLEMENT, JEALOUSY and GUILT!

    • IJB
  • bluerose75

    Hmmm…Well I will be darned!! RCP, MSM and Panic Conservatives…get a look at Rssmussen Reports in “THE REAL WORLD” today…Raese increased his lead in WV….hmmm…I thought Manchin was on the rise…SEE PPP from the other day!!! Kirk is up by 4 in Ill…..hmmm….I thought that was awfully Blue…and was not the Messiah and his Bride just there helping out Alexi???

    And in the my home land of the Sunshine State…Scott up by 6 and just the other day RCP shaded Florida Blue because of a couple of liberal polls for Sink (Governor)….PPP strikes again!!

    When will people learn!! Over at Hotair..they posted the same lame Muhlenberg Poll results (and who released that to the press….well the Washington Post!!! SURPRISE!! SURPRISE!!) Chris Matthews is happy again…take a look at WV moron!! Matthews was pumping up Manchin the other day because of PPP!!

    We kill ourselved with left leaning polls. Also the Mhulenberg poll….50 percent of those polled were in Southside of PHL….a Sestak stronghold!!! Education matters!!

    Good News…thank you Rasmussen for once again restoring sanity to people with little faith!!

    • expatuae

      Sestak doesn’t have any stronghold. He is a 2 term Congressman who won a district from an under investigation big spending Republican. Pretty much a party line leftist with no ideas. He would likely lose his house seat this year if he were running.

      People in Philly are voting against O’Donnell, not for Sestak. Toomey needs to take back control of the airwaves in the Philly/ DE market. 1/3 of the state pop.

      Unfortunately many people (many here) are helping O’Donnell compete for airtime with Toomey on the same stations. Give up a sure win for a 0% chance of victory. Stupid.

    • The_Rebel

      when Rasmussen will be in the field in PA. His last poll had Toomey up 8-9 points, and I doubt his latest will have Sestak ahead or even within 5 points. We should have the results in a couple of days.

      • The_Rebel

        They have Jon Hulburd leading Ben Quayle in Arizona’s 3rd district by 46-44 in a highly Republican district. This is the only poll I have seen of this race.

        And they have McCain with only a 13 point lead over Glassman, just after a Rocky Mountain Poll last week had McCain up by 34 points:

        http://blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com/valleyfever/2010/10/rodney_glassmans_poll_numbers.php

        What do you expect from a kos polling firm?

  • heir2freedom

    The only “pole” that matters is the one that will be sharply applied upside the heads of Democrats on November 2nd IF, and that’s a purposely a big if, conservatives go out in droves and scream at the top of their lungs, “NO! You temporary elected hacks are not going to destroy this country with your pseudo-intellectual, Marxist crappola!”

    The importance of this election cannot be overstated nor underestimated. We are sliding downhill FAST under Obama and his willing abettors in Congress.

    And for you all you O’Donnell haters… keep in mind how you feel each time one of the establishment RINO’s (read Collins and Snowe) vote with the Dems on yet another destructive piece of legislation. If O’Donnell loses, so be it. Conservatives must stand for something, and, besides, we can’t win ‘em all. And that’s okay. Honor must still have its place in this society if we are to survive.

    NEW POST:

    HOMELAND SECURITY UNVEILS NEW BORDER SECURITY STRATEGY: LOSE YOUR JOB!
    http://heir2freedom.blogspot.com/2010/10/homeland-security-unveils-new-border.html

  • 1dbiggs

    Invasion by illegal ie “Criminal Aliens”

    Mr/Mrs Politician:

    Obviously you have never read the United States Constitution or
    else feel that in your ivory tower and wealth that it does not apply to you!!

    I feel you need to read the following and act according to the peoples wish
    not your wishes or special interests wish list!

    There are three references to the words “invasions,” “invaded,” and
    “invasion” in our U.S. Constitution:

    Article I, Section 8: “The Congress shall have Power To Provide for calling
    forth the Militia to execute Laws of the Union, suppress
    insurrections and repel Invasions.”

    Article I, Section 10:”No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any
    Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time
    of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with
    another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War,
    unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as
    will not admit of delay.”

    Article IV, Section 4:”The United States shall guarantee to every State in the
    Union as Republican Form of Government, and shall
    protect each of them against invasion, and on
    Application of the Legislature, of of the Executive (when
    the Legislative cannot be convened) against domestic
    Violence.”

    Your Oath of Office and sworn duties as referenced mean you must Act and
    put a Stop to the Invasion of all the Illegal immigrants we are experiencing.

    Our U.S. Constitution mandates that invasions shall be repelled by Congress.
    and that means the persons in the House of Representatives and the U.S.
    Senate. Our nation’s sovereignty must be protected.

    How can you even stand in front of a mirror and even look yourself in the eyes
    knowing you are a “Bought & Paid Ho” for special interests and the
    Democratic Party Hacks? Tell me I am wrong, please because I fear for the
    future of our country as you certainly don’t care about the people or our
    country!!

  • tea4me

    …for the first time btw. I took my 19 year old daughter with me. I wish she would follow this more. At least she voted down the line for Republicans. My wife will do likewise Nov 2nd.

    I live in the western suburbs. Fairly quite when I was there, Don’t know if that means anything.

    Anyway. That’s 3 votes for Kirk, 3 for Brady, and three against a loon supreme court justice and appellate court judge.

  • tea4me

    doh!

  • californiagold

    In addition to Colorado, Illinois, WV, and PA, numerous other senate races are too close to call. The biggest of which is California. Fiorina is in a dead heat with Boxer, and for Fiorina to win, she will need more money because of the huge media markets all across the state. Fiorina has to get out a better than expected vote in republican areas of the state to offset the huge democratic base of voters in LA and SF. That means Fiorina needs to carry Orange and San diego countys by at least 54%, if not more.

    • RealQuiet

      Doesn’t hurt to donate to her though ;)