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Retirements: An Early Reading On The 2012 House Race

Frankly, Barney, You Would Not Be In Charge next Session Anyway.

I assume that polling for Congressional races one year before they occur has little predicative power in races for perennially competitive seats. Thus, the Generic Congressional Vote numbers will probably offer little perspicacity between now and next Summer. Like an investor who tracks what corporate insiders do prior to investing or divesting in a stock, I find the recent trend of retirements in the House to be a potentially useful indicator.

According to The Hill.com, we have the following statistics regarding Congressional Retirements:

Pure retirements (Dems)

Dan Boren (Okla.)
Dale Kildee (Mich.)
Lynn Woolsey (Calif.)
Mike Ross (Ark.)
Jerry Costello (Ill.)
Dennis Cardoza (Calif.)
John Olver (Mass.)
Charlie Gonzalez (Texas)
Barney Frank (Mass.)

Running for another office (Dems)

Jay Inslee (Washington governor)
Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin Senate)
Shelley Berkley (Nevada Senate)
Mazie Hirono (Hawaii Senate)
Chris Murphy (Connecticut Senate)
Martin Heinrich (New Mexico Senate)
Joe Donnelly (Indiana Senate)
Bob Filner (San Diego Mayor)

Running for another office (GOP)
Todd Akin (Missouri Senate)
Jeff Flake (Arizona Senate)
Mike Pence (Indiana Governor)
Mike Rehberg (Montana Senate)
Connie Mack (Florida Senate)
Rick Berg (North Dakota Senate)
Ron Paul (President)

I feel fairly safe in speculating that the Democrats will retain David Wu’s former seat. in the January 31 special election. This leaves them 25 short of control. I also figure that both parties should retain about 2/3 of their respective retirement lists. This leaves the Democrats starting from a base deficit of 25 seats, and then losing six while gaining three off of retirements. This would put them 28 seats away from control.

For the Democrats to pick off 28 seats, they will need an electoral environment identical to the one that prevailed in 2006 and 2008. Therefore, barring an absolutely catastrophic GOP Presidential Campaign in 2012, the GOP House Caucus will probably still hold sway over the lower house in Congress. The question then becomes whether it will use it more forcefully one the GOP improves their current position in the US Senate.

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COMMENTS

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    But isn’t this a lagging indicator? Don’t changes of majority trigger retirements?

    • Repair_Man_Jack

      No significant number of Dems left town in either 2006 or 2008. They knew what was comeing then, they have a pretty good idea of what is not coming now.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    Frank, retiring? Who will be the butt of future jokes, so to speak?

    Is there any single Congressman that has done more damage to our economy? I think not.

    • throwback59

      As Rush stated earlier, now that Barney’s Seat is Wide Open we should be concerned who and how many will try to Fill it.

    • wumingren

      After Barney leaves, Maxine Waters will move into his committee seats. Ouch!

      • funwithknives

        Maxine however, is a whole ‘nother kettle of goo. How’ IS that banking investigation coming along, anyway? {First Capitol?}
        Been real quiet, hasn’t it? Where are the GOP’s Committee’s Representatives on this sideways trade off? Who’s got themselves some stones?

      • quad4x4

        When she mis-spoke and threatened to grab org. of big Oil it was too much….In Sir Barney Baloney’s chair… she will be a real lefty

  • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

    One less defender of Communism in the House is good news.

    • acat

      whether I’m happier about Bawney or Luap exiting.

      Mew

    • rcastonjr

      that according to your analogy anybody that TRULY believes in freedom, liberty, free markets, and sound money is a now a communist. I kind of thought Republicans were FOR all of those things. Maybe I’m not a Republican after all. Never dreamed I was a communist though.

      • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

        He argues for it louder than Noam Chomsky and Jane Fonda combined.

        Supporting Ron Paul is to support the boot of tyranny in the face of millions, forever.

        • satchman3

          Ron Paul supports private (rather than communal) ownership of property. He is against eminent domain. He also supports gun rights for the purpose of fighting govenment tyranny.

          • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

            He does so loudly, and he doesn’t apologize for it.

            Ron Paul is America’s #1 Fellow Traveler.

          • avgjo

            I have never heard this!?! I tried to look it up, but I didn’t have a specific search term. What should I type in? Thanks .

          • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens

            .

          • avgjo

            thanks.

          • http://www.hakubi.us/ Neil Stevens
  • duanej

    This articlese in line by deflating tba seems to be the obligatory “sell the home team short to keep things interesting” article.

    Ranking Barney Frank’s retirement as “just another retirement” is so empty its almost liberal.

    Congressmen generally do not give up their seats (particularly those with as much power and influence as Frank) unless it is to run for some other office. He’s read the numbers. He sees a very difficult electoral landscape ahead. This is simply nothing but bad news for Dem’s. Repair_Man_Jack is just “trying to keep it real”

    • nathanalbright

      …maybe a lot more is in play than we Republicans think.

    • edintexas

      Barney’s just retiring because with redistricting he will no longer represent the MA fishing industry.

      • ag8tor

        Just as long as this worthless POS is gone. Sorry, that’s as respectable as I can get for the problems this one Dem caused the entire country. Makes it even more mind boggling that they are so in love with his co-conspirators Reid, Pelosi, Schumer and Dodd. They are ALL worthless. This little group along with the community organizer and his AG have done more damage to this country in less than 3 years than any other force on the planet. Thay can’t be gone fast enough. This is why we must carry the message to everyone who votes. Please remember what a short memory the American voter has. Re-election is not an option!

        • quad4x4

          So a sign post that had a statement” Re-Elect No One” , well I sort of agree, however. Some 2010 electors must be kept, as part of the turnover sheet. Dump the dummies and get fresh blood in the trenches. Barney did himself and us a favor.. now get the rest.

          In Your States look into rVote.com and get the ball moving and defeat the socialist in power and wanting more. In the meantime cut out the money if we can’t cut departments i.e./ Education, NLRB, Energy, etc etc and cut defense by bring home troops from Korea, Japan, Germany and many other of the 150 countries we have troops in. And Bases without purpose…like in Nevada, cut it and close it down, Reid will cry and cry that we are picking on him, yeah sure.

          do not reelect Rino’s and progressive Republicans. (McCain, comes to mine.) Others should be shunned, right out of DC.

      • geoph

        He won’t have the time, money, or influence to buy enough of his new constituency’s votes by election day.

        Look, Frank is displaying typical Liberal behavior – abuse the system for personal gain, then leave and live off others when the prospect of work rears its ugly head.

  • paco12348

    We need both Houses plus the Executive branch to undo the damage Obama has done and as quickly as possible. America is crying out to live and continue breathing Freedom. I hear the call, even in my sleep, the call to fight for what the Founders gave us, what they expected us to appreciate and maintain for future generation. So far, we have slept while America suffered in silence, but no more. We must rise to the occasion and fight for our freedoms and for a living America.

    • quad4x4

      We can be proud of them as leaders or else we will never get a chance to restore the America we once knew. And roadblock all socialist from every again gaining power or influence in elective office or behind anyone in power.

      Staffers can be worse than office holders. I firmly believe all elected office holders should be required to staff their DC offices with at a minimum of 85% of staff people from their home state or at least area. Some continuation of staff consulting MAY be Ok, if the outside rep’s don’t plunder the system.

      Get more out of elections than just R or D people, think, resolve then act accordingly.

  • midwestmike

    I think the electorate is fed up with the socialists and 2012 will be a referendum on the Messiah and his Socialist Party. I think it will be a well deserved rout, with the Socialist losing as many as 15 additional seats.

    • Melody Warbington (rwm52)

      There may very well be a backlash against those voted to raise the debt ceiling, put the Super Committee in place, and kicked the problems down the road instead of taking a stand to fight the liberal agenda, not to mention anger at those involved in the insider trading, making money while legislating scandal.

      • Repair_Man_Jack

        Is Spencer Bacchus in any primary danger? It would be a shame if he were not.

        • Melody Warbington (rwm52)

          As the newest member of the Steering Committee of the Shelby County GOP, I certainly voiced my opinion to the staffers at his office.

          Dr. Stan Cooke who ran against him in 2010 is a great guy. Solid conservative and wonderful family (I work with his wife). Just had little to no name recognition, but I know some folks have asked him to try again. It’s sad that in a district as conservative and as large as ours we can’t find a decent challenger. He has “served” since 1992 and hasn’t had a Dem challenger since 2000.

          A shame indeed.

  • celador2

    We see so few retirments and almost always incumbents return whatever party. However, 2006, 08 and 10 saw voter outrage.2012 sees redrawn districts.

    Florida may have gone for Obama in 2008 and carried some CDs but they swung back in 2010, or did they?

    Florida has so many liberals and independents its hard to say if the seats Obama carried 08 that swung GOP 10 will remain with GOP in the newly drawn districts.

    But all states saw GOP gains 2010.

    Whoever in state legislatures draws the new Cds sets the ground work for defeat and victory 2012.

    Add the angry electorate to new lines for CDs and we do not know who may win.

    Barney Frank retired rather than face a GOP trending new MA CD minus New Bedford..

    • quad4x4

      I suppose there is good news and bad news in all CD’s, we have had so many lawyers (in and out of office) practice on how we should write laws and then do the interpretation of them to the leg. operatives, really. How much real knowledge has been expended to reward the guilty and punish the electorate. The courts have just compounded the problem, perhaps with immoral thoughts. A clean sweep is needed and purge is perhaps the right word, not like Stalin did (even if it sounds good).

  • rubicon01

    The announcement that Barney Frank will retire at the end of this congressional session, was anti-climatic, and long overdue. Over the years I listened as Barney spoke w/ reporters & on the issue of Fannie & Freddie’s financial status, he always told the reporters they were financially solvent.
    Of course Barney also typically added that if there were to be a problem, the mortgage giants were federally protected. The public will take care of any problems.
    Barney never really explained that tidbit. What he meant & what he and those reporters should have emphasized in their reports was, if Fannie & Freddie go belly up, the American taxpayer would be expected to cover all their losses, by law. This despite the fact they are only ‘quasi’ public entities. Supposedly being quasi public is different than being public. To those stuck paying the bills, there is NO difference at all.
    Barney led the public & gullible members of congress down the proverbial garden path. And during the last three to five years of operations, Barney knew for fact those entities were about to fail spectacularly. The loss ratio was growing each year. No, it was growing month to month. That so many financial instruments failed so abjectly in such a short period of time, remains an issue that only serious financial auditors will ever be able to understand and determine what really happened. It sure looks to me like someone or some entity or entities, created the circumstances that allowed or pushed those mortgage giants over the edge & if this is true, then it was done for a specific purpose, such as currency manipulation. Personally, I suspect ‘we the people’ have been had & I mean seriously had!
    So Good-bye Barney Frank. If only we had never met ye! Truth be told, Barney is the best example why we need term limits. His ultra liberal constituency kept re-electing him. Most people would have dumped him in the first or second term. His supposed intellect is a vacuous construct of a liberal media seeking to heap credibility on someone they felt was colorful and who provided some sort of political cover for those inept that the media wanted the public to overlook. If Barney had been term limited to 6 – two year terms, his disastrous effect on this nation could have been limited. Term limits tend to protect the rest of us from constituencies whose ability to discern capability from notoriety, is disabled.

  • carolynr

    Do you think we need a true Conservative in the WH YESTERDAY…WELL READ THIS.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Euro-Finance-Ministers-wscheats-3060132077.html

    Now…do you think Perry would stand for this stupid idea…and since when does America cede anything to anybody. This *&(*&) in the WH has to go