« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

MEMBER DIARY

You Still Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere

The Humid, Dismal Torpor Of Another Recovery Summer

By: Repair_Man_Jack (Diary)  |  June 1st, 2012 at 11:30 AM  | 

RESIZE: AAA

Buy me a flute. And a gun that shoots
Tailgates and substitutes. Strap yourself
To the tree with roots. You ain’t goin’ nowhere

(HT: Bob Dylan)

Last month came and last month went. The BLS has issued another jobs report and it looks painfully familiar to what took place the month before. I referenced the old Bob Dylan song “You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere” as a metaphor for the US economy based upon data from the ADP National Employment Report for April. We now have the data for May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics release follows below.

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), following a similar change in April (+77,000). In comparison, the average monthly gain was 226,000 in the first quarter of the year.

I find it curious that they don’t mention the 42,000 downward revision of the original April release. Nor do they see fit to mention that April had an original expectation of 170,000 new jobs. This represents a miss of -30% (119K/170K) followed by an adjustment of -35% (77K/119K). All told, the April number is now down to 45% (77K/170K) of what the market originally expected back in late April. As Lord Vader once advised “Pray we don’t alter it any further.”

We now have numbers for May to compare against initial projections. Joe Weisenthal of Business Insider offers a comparison. Wall Street called for 150K in May. We got only 69K. The first part of my chain would be (69K/150K) = -54%. If BLS goes back in June and again quietly readjusts this report down by (7/6) as large a percentage, we would be left with 37% of 69K or an adjusted May figure of 26K jobs added.

So in honor of Mr. Dylan’s recent Medal of Freedom, we again use his musical genius to describe the US economy.

.

COMMENTS

POSTING RULES  |  LOGIN TO COMMENT  |  REGISTER TODAY
  • Tbone

    ain’t gonna eat the crow,
    They?ll lie and blame
    GWB
    but we ain?t goin nowhere

    • Repair_Man_Jack

      This Dylan Song has one more verse
      To describe our fate if things get worse
      Our economy rides in back of a hearse
      if Obama ain’t goin’ nowhere.

      • APA Guy

        Your sad implosion

        just rips my heart to pieces

        Love, Willard Romney

      • Tbone

        Indeed.

  • Viet71

    I guess more of the same.

    Bubbles can artificially reduce unemployment. But technology and foreign labor competition mean a whole bunch of Americans are just going to struggle to get by. And GDP is never going to grow enough to change this.

    Yet a lot of Americans are doing from OK to well. The threat to them isn’t this month’s job’s report. It’s the double-digit compounding of the cost of public higher education.

    • APA Guy

      …and it didn’t begin in May, but months ago. From my diary:

      The number of Americans unemployed for six months or more rose from 5.1 million to 5.4 million. Revisions provided no comfort, as the BLS changed growth in payroll employment in March from 154,000 to 143,000 and in April from 115,000 to 77,000. (n.p.)

      Take a look at the lasting unemployment impact…300,000 more people have been unemployed for 6 months or more than before, and 5.4 MILLION of them are in that boat. The “improving” jobs numbers of March and April were revised steeply down.

      This is a TERRIBLE job market…no way around that. The single biggest threat to the American electorate is either the lack of jobs or the fear that they will be the next shoe to drop.

      • acat

        than you were four years ago?” …

        (although I give Clinton points for “It’s the economy, stupid!”.. great rephrase)

        Mew

        • APA Guy

          I hope he stays the course. About 1/3 of the country things we’re heading in the right direction. Let’s remind the other 2/3 daily just how much they should want another 4 years of Obama by rewinding his record and playing it…over…and over…and over…

          • acat

            is following Reagan’s model .. decently well.

            Reagan put out more position stuff between 1976 and 1980 than Romney did between 2008 and 2012 .. but Romney locked up the party insiders much earlier than Reagan was able to.

            It’s not a precise parallel .. I’d say Palin and Perry’s trajectories better resemble Reagan’s .. but that’s okay. This election I’ll be satisfied with a Ford or a W.

            Mew

          • APA Guy

            I think he could end up being the most pro-business president since Reagan…and that would strengthen both our economy and position in the world. I can live with that given our alternative.

          • acat

            There’s no way in Kos that Romney wouldn’t sign a social-conservative bill if it hit his desk.

            Given that, it’s up to us to change the Senate so we can actually, you know, *deliver* one.

            Mew

          • APA Guy

            Oh wait…we’re already doing it :)

            I have a really good feeling about the 2012 Election. Something tells me that the country will look back at November 2012 as the election that saved our country.

          • acat

            on *how badly* the wheels come off in the E.U. and China.

            Mew

          • rightlane1111

            A football coach in Tennessee was fired for making an Obama song. He’ll make
            more money when this song becomes a big hit than he would teaching school.

            Tennessee middle school assistant football coach, age 26, was fired for a song
            he wrote and played! This could be the next number one hit country song. It’s
            the best effort yet at encapsulating the outrage at the oversteps of this
            government in an entertaining song.

            Apparently, the guy was fired over the song because some parents complained. If
            you like it, help it go “viral” by passing it along to everyone you know. Click
            for a Great Song!!!

            http://video.staged.com/dtglobal59/tennessee_football_coach_fired_for_making_oba
            ma_so

          • rightlane1111
        • tnfriendofcoal101368

          That Reagan question is too easy, considering how the stock market tanked today, the question should be are you better off than you were 4 minutes ago.

          • acat

            I’m not surprised by the stock market’s reaction.

            I do feel bad for all the Spaniards who bought in last week, though.

            Mew

          • tnfriendofcoal101368

            had a shred of honor, he would be giving this address in shame…(back in samurai times he would fall on his own sword)…

            Goodbye

          • earlgrey

            Or at least a little something for Michelle so she can eat more greasy food that she tells the rest of us not to eat. Maybe they can invite Mayor bloomberg over for root beer floats.

          • APA Guy

            nt

          • earlgrey

            and he doesn’t even have to get anyone else to approve it. He is like a little king over there. Bammy must be really jealous.

          • acat

            Rahm for Mayor of Chicago… think he would have been happier… really big fish, decent sized pond.

            Mew

        • checkmate2012

          from now if Obama is re-elected?” We know the past and present but what would 4 more years ahead look like w/O as prez….that would be more effective to give those O voters a reason bail without blaming them.

    • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

      for many many decades.

      They seem to have only the most short term effect on employment and growth.

      We know what is necessary to turn this ship around, it isn’t a mystery: A reduction in anti-business regulations, A reduction in anti-business rhetoric, a reduction in anti-business taxes that tax capital formation. A reduction in the size of government, A reduction in government borrowing. and a return to sound money and lending practices.

      • acat

        We’re going to become like kids who can dance and sing on command, then cry when some brit tells them the truth… ?

        Mew

    • rightlane1111

      I’m middle class, retired. We’ve had to cut down on plenty in order to stretch out our saved retirement because of the SUPPOSED NON INFLATION.

      Public education is just one factor. If the Supremes do not strike down Obamacare…we’re cooked. People do not realize all the “stuff” that is hidden in that bill.

      For instance…if you are retired and figured that you home was to be an investment when you downsized…WRONG. The housing market went south…partly because of Fannie/Freddie and partly because of jobs going away. But…besides not getting what you expected…come January 2013…IF OBAMACARE is not struck down…you have to pay 3.8% to the Federal Government as a tax on the purchase price. House sells for $300,000….if you are lucky..$11,400 goes to the Federal Government.

      This current government is trying to bankrupt ALL OF US…not just small business…but all of us. Vote Romney in 2012.

      • Viet71

        The non-inflation in this country is amazing. I mentioned the cost of public higher education because it strikes at the heart of the nation’s future.

        As for retirees, all I can say is, good luck. I plan to keep working until I fall out of the saddle.

  • Repair_Man_Jack

    http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

  • pantera1968

    By perusing some other blogs today I learned that, gosh, the President doesn’t pass laws! Are you kidding me? After listening to Obama and his crew for the last four years I was CERTAIN that the President passed whatever laws he wanted. I mean, after all, didn’t the Democrats have the majority in Congress the last two years of Bush’s presidency? Yet, everything is Bush’s fault.

    Now that the GOP has the majority it is their fault that none of Obama’s “jobs bills” are getting passed. What an amazing Civics lesson!

    • lineholder

      ROFL! Is that the argument being presented on the lefty blogs today? The GOP has the House of Representatives…1/2 of Congress. That’s all. And as far as the Obama admin is concerned, executive power trumps legislative and judicial power anyway.

      I have to go check this out. If that’s the rhetoric being used today…the left is not only delusional but desperate as well!!!

      • APA Guy

        …as well they should be. The president is sinking…and taking them down with him.

      • pantera1968

        “Blogs” was probably not the correct word to use. More like the local newspaper and some of the stories on news websites. These aren’t deep thinkers. It just never ceases to amaze me how some buy the left’s talking points but don’t catch their hypocrisy.

      • renl57

        …because he cynically figures that many voters don’t know that the Dems control the Senate.

        And of course, Obama won’t mention that.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    control with a twist. What he claims is that instead of relying upon quantitative easing to fight deflation central banks should set a long term growth goal of say 5%. Then, where the rate of growth falls below the target, the money supply is increased by the difference.

    It seems kind of strange, but in these times we might be better off trying something new.

    • renl57

      That would represent about $400 billion.

      Yet the Fed has done some $2 trillion of quantitative easing, but it hasn’t worked–even when combined with the $780 billion stimulus bill. It’s hard to believe that another $400 billion is all it would take to boost us to prosperity.

      The usual point of boosting the money supply is to make money cheaper; that is, to lower interest rates and devalue the currency.

      But interest rates are already close to zero as it is. Since interest rates cannot go negative (in nominal terms), no matter how much more you boost the money supply, the money won’t get cheaper.

      Devaluation of the currency has real risks, especially when the currency is the dollar, the world’s reserve currency.

      • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

        we really have a problem with liquidity, and it cannot be addressed by interest rates which are at zero. Nor is there any danger right now of inflation.

        Granted weakening the currency has it’s own problems. I don’t think it is any sort of magic bullet, there are many structural reforms that need to take place as well as cutting government spending.

        But it has to be admitted that there was a slight upturn in economic activity after each phase of quantitative easing.

        • APA Guy

          QE is not wealth creation…it is artificially living beyond your means. It also works in tandem with increased borrowing spurred by artificially-low interest rates. In other words, economic activity is generated not by the creation of wealth, but the creation of debt.

          Haven’t we danced that dance before?

          Plus, any temporary economic “upturn” from quantitative easing has been followed by extended dollar weakness.

          The solution to our problem is freeing up WEALTH AND JOB CREATORS, not the artificial creation of money and lasting debt.

          • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

            that adding liquidity during a time of deflation is perfectly consistent with both classical and Chicago school economics.

      • actuarius

        They did so on certain German sovereign bonds on Friday.

        It means that the bondholder must pay the issuer to hold the bond. If that fact is new to you, it will play games with all your assumptions about what interest denominated securities will do going forward.

        Think about interest “cost” on the federal debt being a source of revenue for the Treasury Department. There is no end to the mischief that some could get into.

        • Repair_Man_Jack

          When people deliberately invest in debt to lock in a minor loss it speaks vlumes. When intelligent people do this it speaks through a bull-horn.

  • rightlane1111

    with the same effect. Less revenue coming into the government and more money to the “gimmes” going out. Result…Worse than Europe is experiencing now.

    • Repair_Man_Jack

      Over the last 30 years they have given The Executive Branch greater interpretive power once a law has passed. This has given the executive branch the option of changing the desired effective of laws once the Congress has passed them. The regulatory findings issued by agencies are increasingly effecting how laws operate and this is constitutionally dangerous. Expect a major USSC case over regulatory findings in the next 10 years.

      • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

        They have to pass a law of review and repeal which will hold agencies accountable for mission creep.

      • rightlane1111

        If we don’t get a pro-active three branches of government going with Romney…we’re in trouble. Most all of these regulations have to be nullified.

  • basokla

    Nice chart.

  • http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php kralizec

    …and fast. New POTUS to inherit a mess of gargantuan proportions, the odds of surviving a failure to unravel all of the damage and control spending while boost growth and jobs is steep.

    • Repair_Man_Jack

      Makes me glad he won the GOP nomination instead of anyone I actually liked.

  • http://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php kralizec

    …and fast. New POTUS to inherit a mess of gargantuan proportions, the odds of surviving a failure to unravel all of the damage and control spending while boost growth and jobs is steep.