Not a lot remains about which to philosophize. Two weeks remain, the debates have finished and Campaign 2012 is down to the brass tacks of game-day execution. Having read everyone’s polls until I’m sick of the concept, I can boil election 2012 down to the following if/then/else statement.
If turnout >= D+5, then Barack Obama is re-elected
Else, America is liberated.
We should be about to capture the big prize, but another question is what happens to the Senate. With Romney’s surge, this has swung back in our favor as well. Jim O’ Sullivan of The American Thinker tells us that at present, we should expect wins in NE, WI, and ND. He says we are likely to win MN and NV. After this, it gets more tenuous. FL and VA are day-to-day. MA, CN, and (amazingly) MO are still long shot possibilities. Against this, the GOP loses a seat in ME and probably MA.
When I read this between the lines, I get the following logic table.
If turnout >= D+8, GOP gets net +1.
If turnout >= D+5, GOP gets net +3
If turnout >=D +2 GOP gets net +5
If Turnout >=D-1 GOP takes +8.
Just so I state the obvious and put it out there for all to see, you have a vote concerning what that turnout looks like. In 2008, we saw what D+8 looked like. In 2010, we saw how things looked at D+0. Here’s how we can make 2012 look more like 2010 than 2008.
We have the enthusiasm to make this happen. Ace of Spades tells us that Gallup has surveyed party affiliation from 1-21 Oct. Here’s what they got: Gallup survey of party affiliation preference for 1-21 Oct: Dem 34.3% GOP 34.1% Ind 31.6%. That's right where we need to be to get the Senate. The missing ingrediant here is YOU
So how do we put Romney solidly over the top and take the Senate? We go to work on the Independent vote. Walk precincts. Work phone banks. Display yard signs, bumper stickers, Romney/Ryan bath toys, et al. You don’t have to get in anybody’s face, pace Obama, but letting America know who’s team you’re proud to support overcomes any potential “Shy Tory” effect that would prevent a wavering moderate from voting against Barack Obama.