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The Strategic Failure of the Obama campaign

Chicago must be terrified

We are one week into Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan. A number of polls are coming out telling a variety of stories about what it means. But one thing is clear: Barack Obama’s campaign has had several significant strategic failures this summer. And they failed to define Paul Ryan out of the gate with their Mediscare tactics. And they failed to define Mitt Romney this summer with a huge campaign spend.

The Obama campaign hoped to use the summer to define Mitt Romney. They spent $25 million in May ads. Obama spent $58m in June. What effect did it have? At the end of July, Purple Strategies, a bipartisan polling firm, found (PDF) that Romney has pulled ahead of Obama, even as Obama’s favorability ticked up slightly. Obama’s out of control campaign spending yielded nothing, just like his out of control government spending yielded nothing.  Politico even described that poll as giving the Ryan pick a small bump for the Romney campaign.

But then the bombshell came. After a week of Mediscare attacks on Paul Ryan, they were not able to dislodge seniors in Florida. According to a poll, reported by the Palm Beach Post:

But two Florida polls conducted since Ryan’s selection suggest that voters who are 65 and older support Ryan and his budget plan more than younger voters do. A third Florida poll released this week doesn’t include an age breakdown, but finds the state’s voters agreeing more with Ryan’s description of his budget and Medicare plan than with Democratic criticisms that it would “end Medicare as we know it.”

The challenge for the Obama campaign is that if they can’t scare older voters away from Republicans with dishonest attacks on Paul Ryan’s proposal to save Medicare, then they are trapped. Paul Ryan turns out to be a big win. He is a candidate who is deeply connected to the industrial midwest which will be the swing region of the country this election. The Purple Strategies poll found that he helps most in Ohio. He will also help with young voters disenchanted and under-employed by the failure of the Obama economy.

So the Obama campaign has failed in the two main tests. They hugely overspent Romney to disqualify him. They failed. And they have tried for three years to attack Republicans with the Ryan budget. And the polls in Florida, the place that should be most vulnerable to attacks, show that that failed.

Chicago, you have an emergency.

COMMENTS

  • fotophun

    I read that Ryan will be addressing seniors with his mother
    http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ryan-florida-senior-visit/2012/08/17/id/448957

    Obomber complains his kids are untouchable, but then sites them over and in a speech or ad

    • rabun1016

      Paul Ryan delivers the message with a real fervor. Nothing contrived about him, and it comes across. Absolutely nailed to the wall the canard that he is cutting medicare for the retirees. Made clear that the program won’t stand solvent unless it is modified “for his generation”. Great way to deliver it. Was at a reception for him last night, and he nailed it as well. Only wish we had other Republican leaders as ardent and heartfelt as he is.

      • thethinman

        It would be nice just to have some leadership from the Republicans. We live in a country whose government is being held hostage by the Senate controlled by the Socialist Democrats and the do nothing Republicans who appear to bow and scrape before Harry Reid while Obama continues to give our money away to people who are just lining their pockets and NOT performing the task for which the money was given.

  • evilbloggerlady
  • ctredstater

    hooooowwwww sweeeeet it is!!!

    it is too early to declare anything definitive about the trajectory of the campaign, but I have had nothing but good feelings and good feedback and good data since last Saturday at 845 AM.

    What a totally beautiful thing if the Medicare Boomerang ends up being part of the force which dismantles the Obamacare Nightmare – electorally.

    As Obama’s mentor might say – “Mediscare’s Chickens – - – - – Are Coming Home
    to Rooooost!!!

  • rabun1016

    Lots of good messages that need to be presented in the right way.
    You can’t control what the networks put on the sub-screen crawls, but Romney needs to be specific about the millions he has given away in charity over the last five years. The dems want the discussion about the tax rate; he needs to make it about what he gives away without the gun of the US govt at his head, and the aggregate millions he also paid in taxes. .

    • thethinman

      Romney has no reason to pander about what he’s given to charity. the BIBLE says you get your reward here if you do it publicly, but your reward is in heaven if you do it in private. I don’t care what he’s given, it’s none of my business. What IS important is the scam and cover up of REAL information on the scum that sits in the White House and rules like an African dictator.

      • rosegrower

        is to repudiate the Obama lie that the rich “don’t care about the poor.” I suspect that most of Romney’s giving has to do with human-need-related charities; one criticism I’ve heard is that he only “gives to his church.” However, Obama also is on record as contributing to Rev. Wright’s “church.” Rather than subsidizing rabble-rousing, as Rev. Wright seems to do, the Mormon Church is noted for advocating things such as adoption, feeding and clothing the poor, etc. The entire charity thing is another great way to contrast left vs. right – the left believes that government spending solves social problems, while the right knows that charity combined with human intervention solves social problems.

        • lionelpeach

          That’s the real narrative of the left. If you are a rich Democrat, wink wink, more power to ya. I mean, no one occupies Oprah do they? And that piece of work, Soros, well, he’s a just darling, isn’t he?

          On charity, I recently heard that the Mormon faith obliges its congregation to pay a 10% tithe regardless of whether that is 10% of $2,000 or 10% of $2,000,000.

  • major_sensible

    That Purple Poll is very interesting. I didn’t see a D/R/I or demographic breakdown of the samples anywhere, any idea what they were?

    • Ausonius

      No information on polling bias, but there is this statement:

      “Fielded 8/13-8/14, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=1000 likely voters, margin of
      error +/-3.1. OH, FL, VA and CO have been oversampled to N=600 per state, margin of error +/-4.0.”

      See:

      http://www.purplestrategies.com/

  • 6eorge Jetson

    Couldn’t see that one coming

    • renl57

      …we should have realized he couldn’t stimulate his own re-election campaign either.

  • hunter

    One way to consider this is to think of the work they did on Mitt’s dog.
    They thought they would be able to turn people off by talking about his dog in a car top carrier. Which begs the question of people driving with their beloved dog in the bed of the pickup truck. They tried to use Romney’s dog as a reason to dislike the Governor.
    Now it is as if the dog is biting team Obama. and the problem is not int he mesage but in their out of tune tactics and thinking.
    They want to talk about the dog in the carrier.
    Instead, people are noticing a certain look of hunger in Obama’s eyes when he talks about dogs.
    This is emblematic of the Obama campaign and its inability to find targets.
    Not to mention funny, in a creepy sort of way.

    • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

      nt

      • checkmate2012

        just saying…no one has seen BO. And who names their dog with their own initials??? Narcissism at its finest!

        Or is that he thinks of himself as a dog? I’m sticking with the first premise :)

        • Brookhaven

          Someone should do a parody fo the old Marie Antoinette quote: “You say the people have no bread? Let them eat cake!”

          Headline: Ethanol mandates are causing corn and beef shortages.

          Obama: “You say the people have no beef? Let them eat dog!”

      • tnfriendofcoal101368

        Bo being missing was because Obama got a case of late night, munchies caused by Choom…

        • http://www4.webng.com/rickbull/lostlucky/ rickbull

          labeled as a hate group by the SPLC.

  • Tbone

    Without it he would be down 10-15 points.

    • acat

      Without Obama’s huge ad spend* there’d be more money to help Dem Senators and Reps up for re-election this cycle.

      Mew

      * I’ve seen pro-Obama ads on the air in the Chicago media market (and pointed out the logic #Fail to Mrs. Cat) .. What does Obama’s internal polling tell him that has him wasting money in Illinois?

      • ctredstater

        by Douglas Urbanski – Guest Host on Rush’s show today.

        shocked me.

        Maybe it is because of all the fundraising they do in those markets.

        • renny

          emphasizes Mitt’s millions and how he only pays 14% taxes. I think that is 15%, on unearned income (had an online tiff with a poster on the difference between earned and unearned income), but who cares about a digit or so?

          NJ? 3–1 Dem. registration, but our boy Christie maybe has DC in the quivvers as some polls have him at 60% poopylarity.

          I will enjoy seeing the gov. at the Rep. conv. (No one is evidently going to the Dem. conv.) And think maybe NJ can be swinged, esp. when the big guy gets to campaigning here full time.

      • ChicaGOP

        I know from experience that cable ad buys are notoriously poorly targeted and there’s a ton of slippage across markets, but I see one or two Obama ads nightly… mostly on my wife’s HGTV, Style and TLC programming… all focused on women.

        I think the choice of network says at least as much as geography of the ad buy.

        By the way, I’m proud to announce here that in 29 days I will officially be out of Cook County for keeps. Hello, Will County!

        • emptybucket

          somewhat fascinating that Obama is spending money for ads in Chicago. Not being up on Illinois politics I think to myself that things must truly be bad if Illinois is a worry for him. Is Illinois like New York in the sense that the heavily populated large cities vote for democrats, however there are many counties that actually vote Republican? Just looked at a 2008 election map and noticed a lot of red in Illinois.

          The pundits trying to chart the electoral count are interesting but we have the sense here at our house that Obama is up for a landslide defeat. Or we could be delusional…not sure anymore.

          They can target women but hate to tell them, the Lib women I know are not exactly on board this time around.

          • renny

            but o got the cities. We need to attack voter fraud (an AFL-CIO operative was just arrested in OH for voter reg. fraud), have challengers and poll judges in all voting sites even where not many Reps. (cities like Phila..), and make sure we take MORE counties. Only two in NJ were completely red for McCain.

          • ChicaGOP

            … but rather nearby Indiana and Wisconsin population centers. I am depressingly certain that Obama will win my state by 20 points but our closest neighbors are much more likely to go red this time. Obama only won IN by 1% and he’s not likely to do any better than that in WI this year, either.

            But as I mentioned, it’s all the woman-targeted media that surprises me. I’d have thought he’d have them sewn up by now. Maybe not.

      • emptybucket

        where’s the money for the Dem senators up for re-election this year. If the pressure stays on Obama because his fund raising is lagging behind will the DNC tighten the funds up for others because they are so concentrated on Obama? Haven’t heard much about what is being spent on other campaigns, guess I’d better go out on the Net and get some researching done.

        Am particularly interested in Elizabeth Warren vs. Scott Brown. I wonder if it is realistic to expect that seat to stay in the GOP column. Warren seems to be going strong and hey, she’s got a big speech coming up at the DNC convention.

        • checkmate2012

          Meaning he’s not going to share his war chest with the down ballot small people. Prob about 4-6 months ago per the campaign. He’s selfish and we all know it!

          The great news is his war chest is hurting!

          • emptybucket

            for answering. Like the great news part. We aren’t able to do much but have done a little bit several times. This is the most we’ve ever given to a political campaign and we will keep on sending whenever we can.

          • acat

            are shorting their “mandatory” contributions to the DNC.

            I forget where I read it, but even Rep. Waxman isn’t going to be spreading his war chest around this year ..

            This means many of the Dem incumbents in purple areas, who usually depend on being able to use DNC bucks to out-spend .. can’t.

            It’s going to hurt them in the Senate more than the House, but .. it’s going to hurt them.

            Mew

          • fightnright

            if Obama must make huge outlays of campaign cash just to keep up, or to stay *only* a couple of points behind.

            If he’s reduced to ‘running the Red Queen’s race’, maybe it’s a sign that he won’t be the Red King any more

            :)

    • Viet71

      I have high hopes for the three presidential debates.

      Romney should win them.

  • standfast24

    1. Don’t think they thought SC would uphold OC as a tax.
    2. Never had to really sell OC, the MSM did they selling and they told just enough lies to get it passed, then everybody forgot the little detail they knew.
    3. OC will be producing factoid landmines that will be exploding between now and November 6,2012.
    4. Despite the contrary claim, they were expecting Portman or Rubio , not Ryan. They have to test focus group based attack lines on Ryan and it will take them some time.
    5. Why Obama is avoiding the press is they have nothing to use other than the Tax return angle.
    6. Still very wary, but sense that Obama’s support among certain segments is mile wide, but inch deep. The whole MSM narratibve is that Obama support is solid and that almost no undecideds exist..

  • fiscalsanity

    It’s a failure of ideas. People are starting to realize that Obama’s plan of doing nothing is guaranteed to lead to Medicare’s demise. Romney needs to whole heartedly embrace Ryan’s plan for saving Medicare!

  • renl57

    …to raid Medicare to finance his own pet scheme (ObamaCare in this case).

    That’s why Obama’s attacks on Ryan on this issue are blunted. Obama gutted Medicare Advantage, all by himself.

    Remember all those “town hall meetings” in 2009 in which Dem politicians pushing ObamaCare got an earful from seniors on just that issue?

    • reclaimit

      But not get into specifics. Nothing good comes of this. I saw him trying to explain the $716 Billion Obama cuts, and he was factually off base. Fortunately, no one really caught it. But he should leave that to Ryan, who is much more adept with figures, and will be able to destroy Biden in a debate. Obama will catch Romney on these errors, and the President has never been more vulnerable. Don’t let Mitt break out marker boards!

      • commonsenseobserver

        And how it affects the economy as a whole. Linking less debt and smaller government to more jobs.

        Mitt Romney can make a good case for the power of free enterprise and business himself. He’s best on the private sector itself, which means becoming a voice for job creators and working families who benefit directly not only from pro-growth government policies, but from the innovation and industry of American business itself.

        So Ryan should stick with reforming government, and Romney should stick with unleashing free enterprise. Of course, the two overlap.

        • cactusjack

          Romney isnt Reagan but he tries to go that way. Ryan isn’t a Reagan – yet. But put them together they become an entity that is closest thing to Reagan there is now for us to see.Didnt put that together til your post. Maybe that’s why so many conservatives this week are feeling unexpected, inexplicable good vibes from this ticket.

          • gekster

            Do you have an actual clue, or what.
            Romney is being Romney, and is being what the majority of voters want, which at this time and place is a conservative.
            Don’t go driving with your eyes closed.

          • cactusjack

            legged stool that otherwise cannot stand if it loses even one leg: 1) foreign policy Con; 2) EcoCon (free enterprise and reduce fed government size; 3) SoCon. I think they’re still the campaign essence of the perfect conservative candidate. Reagan had all three. Neither on his own, but[ Romney + Ryan] cover all three. Given the reality of the economy, Romney will instintively go towards Reaganesque free enterprise whether consciously emulating Reagan or not.

          • emptybucket

            your pithy comments. EE wrote a great diary on Nikki Haley. Very postitive and uplifting. Made we want to stand up and fight for America. You know, truth, justice and the American Way.

            Hope all is well. Elaine

        • reclaimit

          Romney doesn’t have to get into the nuts and bolts of what works or makes sense. People understand he was successful in private equity. He comes across like a winner in business. Ryan comes across as a bold young man who cares about America’s future. They make a great team. But theyhave to play to each other’s strengths. Sometimes, Mitt talks his way into problems, and then Americans think, “How did he do it?” I’d rather see him arrogant and vague (like with his taxes) than being transparent and specific. He can move those unfavorable numbers a lot by the convention if he just keeps talking about Obama failing.

  • CarolT

    I watched the season finale of The Closer on demand, they leave some commercials in, there was an anti-Romney ad from Obama. I live within 7 miles of Boston. Did that ad run nationally or only in Boston? What are their internal polls that they are advertising in Boston? I rarely pay attention to commercials, but I posted a month of so ago that I was home all day, not feeling well, and watched Law & Order SVU all afternoon on USA, they had the ad every hour.
    My brother lives in Augusta, Maine and the same commercials are airing there.

    I’m feeling very hopeful that Romney & Ryan will win.
    I do not understand how anyone can say Obama is likable. To me, he’s a petty little liar, nothing likable about him.

    • commonsenseobserver

      Well, some people just find poor liars to be so pitiful and likeable.

      The problem with that is that reasonable people would vote for Romney and then have a beer with Obama as they watch him being crushed by a landslide.

    • cbartlett

      I watched that same show 2 days after it aired because we recorded it. Was dismayed to see the very misleading statements about Romney.

      • CarolT

        They are desperate to play it in Boston, I don’t think MA is going to turn red and TX isn’t going to turn blue!
        Let the DNC and Obama waste all their money, while Romney has to wait until after the convention.
        The cable system I have has an “on demand” feature, they remove almost all the commercials, except for ABC shows. I watched it on demand, I didn’t watch it from my DVR. Sometimes the shows will be up the next day, other times it may not be on at all.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    The voters (not the average person, but those who are motivated enough to vote) The voters are much much more knowledgeable, more sophisticated, and more cynical than they used to be.

    Going back in history, left wing demagogues like Huey Long, and FDR could tell the most outrageous lies and sell liberal snake oil to the unsophisticated public. The media of course helped.

    Even just a few decades ago Someone like Biden could get away with his bigotry and stupidity when talking to one of his blue collar audiences.

    But none of the works anymore. because there are now alternate viewpoints being heard, and because likely voters just don’t believe that crap anymore.

  • commonsenseobserver

    I smell desperation. Trying to make him into the poor matyr for hope and change.

    In Tampa, welcome a new Mitt, and in Charlotte, an Obama as old as ever.

  • wrongwaybama

    & Florida. we need more Gop in the Senate to fix this mess!!!!!

  • commonsenseobserver

    Obama claims to use savings from fraud, waste, and abuse to shore up Medicare…

    Essentially, Americans are piling on more debt to pay for poorer care. Only geniuses like Democrats would dream that rationing care in exchange for more debt is a good deal.

    So far, we’ve failed to connect the dots between the two (reflecting our failure in connecting smaller government with jobs, growth, and quality of life as a whole). But if we get our messaging right, Obama-Biden would really look like financial gurus and health experts (not).

    Obama’s solution for Medicare: Ration care for American seniors, borrow more money from the Chinese government. If that doesn’t offer a clear choice between bankruptcy and Romneynomics, I don’t know what does.

  • commonsenseobserver

    They will try to distract from the Republican National Convention using a series of campaign stops by the President, focusing on “the economy, middle-class taxes, affordable health care and having access to that.? Perhaps we ought to send a bus of Republican supporters to chase him like he chased Mitt… Or dedicate a primetime spot at the convention to educating viewers all about Obama’s promise gap on all those issues and hitting him hard for his lies. Perhaps right before a grand appearance by America’s comeback team.

    • michaelbowler

      chasing Obama would encounter two things:
      1. They would be kept out of the rallies
      2. You can bet your life they’d get the *&%$# kicked out of them by union goons.

      Of course #2 would be very good advertising if it managed to be shown on the MSM, though I’d bet that’d be edited out and not mentioned…

      Make no mistake, the dems intend to cheat their way to victory, they know the O-man is not so popular with anyone really paying attention who is not a true believer in the cause. True believers alone cannot put him over the finish line…without cheating.

  • onepercenter

    Long time reader, first time poster. While I would like to be optimistic about our chances in the fall, what credible sources are pointing to a Romney win? Everything I am finding shows a very tight race for the popular vote but a comfortable margin for Obama in the electoral college. I appreciate the enthusiasm that many on this site have, but I am a realist. Even after the positive roll out of Ryan, we are still losing. Hell, even Rasmussen has Obama with a narrow lead over Romney.

    • commonsenseobserver

      Florida, Virginia, Iowa, and Ohio, and remains competitive in NH, CO, PA, MI, WI, etc.

      Certainly, most of them remain tight, but we don’t feel too pessimistic about our chances of winning across the nation.

    • ceili_dancer

      Look at the dates the polls were conducted, Some are still posted with polling from April and May. Also there is still this fixation of using registered voters instead of the likely voter model. Looking at Rasmussen you will fiond that things are very close, but momentum is with Romney/Ryan if you look at state by state and not the national poll. Although, with a three day rolling average the Obama lead should be shrinking soon in that poll.

  • commonsenseobserver

    Team Mitt had better be ready. It should focus on the following, based on what liberal writers are busy spinning out.

    Bush’s spending (including 2002 stimulus which extended and expanded tax relief and unemployment benefits), tax cuts, Medicaid, Social Security, Pell Grants, and a fair bit of abortion and contraception.

    Team Romney should wrap up the Medicare fight well and then fire rapidly, but coherently and clearly, on debt, jobs, entitlements, welfare, health, and education. Rallying bipartisan support and getting surrogates out are especially important. We’re still the party of working families. A series of ads and explanatory videos on each issue could perhaps help.

    Suggestion: Use Art Davis, and get people like Dan Boren on board.

  • http://impudent.edublogs.org/ kyle8

    If you are elected, Are we going to see some people brought to justice for stealing and wasting over a trillion dollars? For arrogant, outlandish gun policies and a stonewall and cover up? For systematic efforts to suppress the vote? For endless unconstitutional executive orders? For some members of congress who instituted new harmful financial regulations and exempted their cronies? For general cronyism and defiance of the will of congress?

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