« BACK  |  PRINT

RS

FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

Arming Libyan Rebels

Stupidity Unchained

The Libyan operation would have nearly a comic opera quality were it not for the fact that people are needlessly getting killed because of the fecklessness of the Obama Administration. As we pointed out yesterday, our motive for going into Libya has absolutely nothing to do with establishing a less repressive regime, the rebels are happily engaged in the slaughter of their enemies and carrying on a campaign of ethnic cleansing to force black Africans from Libya, than with one particular twit, Samantha Power, trying to prove a particular academic version of BushLiedTM.

Ignoring Rumsfeld’s warning to President Bush, the administration’s monomaniacal pursuit of a “coalition” has led to a dog’s breakfast of a UN Resolution, UNSCR 1973, which is effectively self-negating. It calls upon civilians to be protected, though apparently doesn’t extend so far as to demand the protection of civilians living in the dystopia being created in the areas where they hold sway, yet it forbids the introduction of foreign military forces into Libya in furtherance of that goal.

Now the next great idea is being floated: arm the rebels. What could possibly go wrong?

National Journal has produced a half-baked for-against column on the subject of arming the rebels. Boiled down to the bullet points:

5 Reasons Against Arming the Rebels:

  • We Don’t Know Who They Are.
  • It May Not Be Needed.
  • It May Not Be Legal.
  • It May Stir up a Hornet’s Nest.
  • It May Cost Too Much.

5 Reasons For Arming the Rebels:

  • It May Level the Playing Field.
  • U.N. Resolution Authorizes All Necessary Measures.
  • It May Stymie al-Qaida.
  • Regional Stability is at Stake.
  • Other Countries Can Provide the Arms.

Most of these, on both sides, range from merely silly to profoundly stupid. One finds It as hard to believe that supplying the rebels with weaponry is going to do anything but add a marginal cost to the expense of maintaining a no-fly zone just as one is hard pressed to understand how a suppurating civil war adds to regional stability. And as Libya is under an arms embargo, this would be a technical violation of UNSCR 1973 but as we’re already trying to bring down the regime in violation of UNSCR 1973 violating an arms embargo seems like small beer to me.

The real question is how would supplying the rebels with weapons achieve the goals of UNSCR 1973, which is to reach a political settlement between the rebels and the government. Fortunately, there is an easy answer. It can’t.

The US and its “coalition” are embarked upon a program of regime change under the guise of the doctrine of Responsibility to Protect. Never mind that Qaddafi’s actions haven’t come close to any reasonable interpretation of the three potentially triggering events:

Principle One stresses that States have the primary responsibility to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity (mass atrocities).

Principle Two addresses the commitment of the international community to provide assistance to States in building capacity to protect their populations from mass atrocities and to assisting those, which are under stress before crises and conflicts break out.

Principle Three focuses on the responsibility of international community to take timely and decisive action to prevent and halt mass atrocities when a State is manifestly failing to protect its populations

Supplying more weapons, and in all likelihood more advanced weapons, to the rebels will result in several things, none of them particularly benign.

  • Casualties on both sides will increase, the conflict will be prolonged, and reconciliation will become more difficult.
  • An increase in the numbers of weapons will inevitably result in more people being involved in the conflict. This will increase the number of people
  • Advisors will have to be introduced into Libya in order to train the rebels or, alternatively, rebels will have to be brought out of Libya in order to be trained on the weapons.
  • The weapons will remain after the conflict ends but not necessarily within Libya.

Introducing weapons into this conflict makes less sense than the current strategy and that is saying something.  Unless, that is, they are accompanied by advisors to train the rebels on their usage and ground forces to speedily remove the regime and bring this conflict to an end.

Tags:

COMMENTS

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    no one will ever figure out the situation was dirty.

  • Marcus_Traianus

    they look pretty well armed to me. I am pretty sure there is already a cornucopia of weapons, including the type that shot down the Libyan jet.

    Exit question, given the “rebel” composition of LFIG, AQIM, Saudi’s and God knows who else, is somebody seriously considering arming these guys? Just curious, because if they are armed by “us”, who do we see when these weapons are dragged to another battlefront and used against our troops or maybe a civilian jetliner?

  • paramedichess

    Remember how well it worked when we armed the Taliban? Why wouldn’t we want to repeat that glorious chapter in our always-successful Middle East policy?

    • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

      why not re-arm The Taliban…

    • streiff

      the Taliban didn’t form until after the USSR had already withdrawn from Afghanistan.

      • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

        we deliberately gave arms to an organization that worked hand-in-glove with AQ?

        • acat

          Little voice in the back of my head is screaming “Iran-Contra”, but .. IIRC, there were some older American weapons pointed at our troops in Afghanistan….

          Mew

        • streiff

          you consider the stuff we gave the Lebanese Army that ended up in the hands of Hezbollah, I think so.

          Al Qaeda was created after the Cold War so we’ve had little incentive to arm them.

          • glaucon

            Soviet War in Afghanistan (December 1979 ? February 1989). US supplied and funded the Mujahideen who were fighting the Soviets.

            Al-Qaeda formed in August 20, 1988 from members of the Mujahideen.

            Soviet Union fell December 1991.

          • aesthete

            in 2001 — i.e, our allies in the region, such as they are. As far as I know, the Taliban did not uniquely benefit from our largess apart from their peripheral connection to the “winning” side of the Afghanistan conflict.

          • Doc Holliday

            who fights in the name of Allah. We probably did arm some guys that later joined Al Queda, I think the facts are pretty clear. Of course that does not really mean anything Al Queda got what they wanted from rich Saudi Princes.

            The Muhajadeen were not necessarily the same as the Taliban although I am sure some joined them. The Taliban were radicalized school kids from Pakistan.

            BTW, from what I have read The Northern Alliance was pretty good by Muslim standards. They had a strong leader but he was murdered right before 9/11.

          • streiff

            but what you become is significantly different from what you are.

            The claim was we armed the Taliban. We didn’t. By the time the Taliban formed no one in State or Defense could find Afghanistan on a map.

          • Doc Holliday

            We did not arm the Taliban. Also, the Cold War caused us to support not the nicest people at times. I don’t think we were wrong to do that, the world is full of bad places and bad people. I think we need to get away from the Bush/Obama doctrine that everyone in the world wants to be free and let others be free. See, everyone does want freedom, but not everyone wants others to have freedom.

            The dirty little secret (that I know you know) is that Muslims do hate us for supporting non democratic leaders. But many of them are made only because they want to be the next non democratic leader.

            Look at Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, et al. Sorry guys, I am not for overthrowing those guys, particularly the Jordanians. We have seen too much evidence that their populations are more radical than their leaders. Look at the Turks, people almost let them join Europe. But the Turkish people voted to be more of a theocracy.

            I have had it up to here with the lot of them. And the leftists in this country that have forced us to rely on Middle East oil are part of the long problem too.

          • aesthete

            I’d still say that in the context of the Cold War, it was a good idea to arm the mujahideen: the Soviet Union was a much greater threat than Al Qaeda ever will be, and if we go around scared of every potential outcome of our action, we’ll never get anything done.

            That said, in today’s world, it makes little sense to sponsor guerrillas of any sort (especially Islamists): foreign policy generally works better with established actors, and fundamental regime change is a gamble every time. Iraq and Afghanistan are essentially client states for the time being; who knows what they’ll do when they’re untethered from their leash? In a world that generally understands US hegemony and where most countries do not present a threat to US interests, regime change is something that should be considered only sparingly. I can count the countries where we would objectively benefit from a US policy that advances regime change on one hand. (Unsurprisingly, Libya is not one of those countries.) Arming of rebels being a strategy that has few uses outside of regime change, it seems to be a counterproductive strategy for all of the reasons that Streiff listed and then some.

          • streiff

            we gave them Stinger SAMs. Their other arms were provided by third countries.

            Stephen Coll, in Ghost Wars, relates an incident where we were trying to give the Afghans T-62 tanks from Egypt, which was being reequipped with M-60A1s. We could not get permission from State to do it because we had an arms embargo against Pakistan and the tanks had to go through Pakistan to get to Afghanistan.

          • Doc Holliday

            I admit I supported killing/catching Ghadaffi and taking out his military. I did this solely thinking about the WOT and that Ghadaffi is a terrorist.

            The ongoing mission in Libya does not support these goals. The people running this thing are a joke, with the Americans running it being the biggest jokes

            It is time to get the CIA or French intelligence, or the freaking Hell’s Angels on the ground to capture and kill any Al queda types among the rebels.

            I am sure you have read this article, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8407047/Libyan-rebel-commander-admits-his-fighters-have-al-Qaeda-links.html

            if this leader is a terrorist, he should be taken out too.

          • merryj1

            …and just prior to 9/11, al Queda killed the leader of the Northern Alliance (“the Lion of … was it Kandahar, or Kabul?”), presumably because he was seen as a reliable US ally.

          • streiff

            for 6 months while the Soviets were withdrawing and after our aid to the Mujahideen had stopped (See Ghost Wars for the timeline of our marginal arming effort) there were Taliban in Afghanistan.

            Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima freakin culpa.

          • merryj1

            That the Taliban was organized and/or established by military/government forces in Pakistan, elements that Musharef (spelling, sorry) couldn’t fully control..

        • glaucon

          “we deliberately gave arms to an organization that worked hand-in-glove with AQ?”

          We also aided AQ in taking over Kosovo. AQ was so grateful that they sent terrorists to the US to thank us in person for helping them.

          • streiff

            we gave Kosovo over to a criminal enterprise that tolerated the presence of AQ sympathizers

          • glaucon

            The most recent Kosovo war was a “revolution” by ethnic Albanian Muslims against Serbia. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) had funding and training from AQ (Bin Laden), including sending KLA personal to Afghanistan to train at AQ training camps. Foreign Mujahideen fighters went to Kosovo to help in the fighting and that included Saudis and experienced Mujahideen from Afghanistan.

            The KLA worked with AQ, and Clinton helped them win.

          • glaucon

            Some might argue that Clinton and Albright believed that helping a Muslim group (the KLA) would be good PR for the US, and serve a dual purpose of creating goodwill with moderate Muslims, and undermine the influence of AQ. Unfortunately, the opposite effect occurred instead: Kosovo was a feather in the cap of AQ and Bin Laden, and it furthered their image in the Muslim world and helped them move on to bigger things…

          • paramedichess

            At the end of the day we seem to frequently fall for one (or both) of two false premises. First, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Often times, the enemy of our enemy is also our enemy (especially in the Middle East). Second, “a revolution against a evil dictator will inevitably bring a better government.” Often these revolutions bring on new dictators who are often as bad or worse than the original (see ‘Iran’ and soon ‘Egypt’). Until we have a State Dept that understands these two errors, and commits themselves to not repeating them, we will continue to embarrass ourselves, put our troops in harms way unnecessarily, and support regimes that eventually try to harm us.

  • sowa1

    Seems as tho we train and arm people all over the world. They know how we fight and our weapons. Soon they will use them against us. Stop the money, arms etc. going to all Foreign Countries especially the ones who hate us.

    • streiff

      obviously I’m in favor of limiting who we send weapons to, but an all encompassing embargo would present some very interesting financial problems.

      The only way we can afford to build something like the F-35, or even small arms, is through our Foreign Military Sales program. Stop that and you either shut down the assembly line or you have Uncle Sam pay a lot of money to keep it open.

  • YnotNOW

    Your first two bullet points on the “results” of arming rebels are pretty weak: casualties may increase on the Gaddafi side, but the rebles will have enhanced ability to defend themselves, attack, or work out a more amenable settlement (negotiation through strenth, rather than surrener without condition).

    But your 4th bullet point clinches the argument: “the weapons will remain after the conflict ends”. This is bad whether they are in Libya or elsewhere. It is dubious to trust the rebels to set up a democratic government or promote human rights among their own people. We definitely cannot trust them with advanced weapons that could be turned against the people, or to be “shared” with other countries’ groups of equally dubious credentials.

    • streiff

      that casualties will increase across the board as more people will become involved — using the increased supply of weapons — and the combat will become more intense.

      If you mission is humanitarian, it strikes me that increasing the casualties is a counterintuitive way to go about it.

      • Danielle Davis (ocleverone)

        5s all over the place for you. ;)

      • YnotNOW

        It may be nice to have humanitarian motives in stopping Gaddafi from slaughtering his people, but if we end up leaving him in power and continuing to oppress his people now and in the future, it is a very short-term gain. That’s why I think the “humanitarian” bullet point has some value but is weak.

        And certainly, arming a future oppressive state, regardless of who is in charge of that oppression (current or new dictatorship) is a losing proposition for humanitarian goals.

  • andystone

    on the last point. Libya is already sending the most jihadis to Iraq (particularly from rebel-held Benghazi and Derna). Distributing weapons into such an area is not only irresponsible, but downright criminal.

    • canadianson

      The current administration will most likely distribute weapons.

      • blooch

        Before you know it, he’ll have Blackwater in there, too. For a little Kinetic Mercenary Action. I can’t wait to hear them explain that.

        • Doc Holliday

          and informants among them to figure all the crap out! If this thing is the charlie foxtrot it seems like, we need to forget about the spilled milk and figure out what the best move for THIS COUNTRY is now.

          If we have to advise some AQ types to go see the virgins, then let it be so.

          • blooch

            on the shortest path to this cockroach:

            http://www.antifascistencyclopedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/al-megrahi-returns-to-Lib-001.jpg

            it would go a long way toward salvaging this mess.

            I like to think that each half of the crowd outside that plane is right now trying to kill the other half, and both halves are enjoying great success.

          • Doc Holliday

            If he isn’t advised to pass on or move to Gitmo, this operation will be a failure.

  • drfredc

    Arming Idiot Infidels — what could go wrong? If done prudently, it can be easily managed chaos. Look at this as arming one side of the Hatfields and McCoys…. When the other side already armed…

    In other words, applying the 2nd amendment where none existed. Yes, this will be abhorrent to the lefty gun grabber types…

    You don’t have to give them an infinite stockpile of bullets to fire.
    You don’t have to give them things to shoot at planes.
    You don’t have to provide assets that are easy to maintain for long periods of time without coming back to you for maintenance and parts…
    You don’t have to provide lots of high tech weapons and training unless that helps achieve your goals (not necessarily to be confused with their goals).
    You might provide just enough stuff to get a cease fire/stalemate, if that’s what’s desired.
    You can provide some equipment that traces its location.

  • lgbpop

    Sending arms to rebels in Libya….What does Obama think this is, Mexico?

  • Menlo

    I don’t know who else is of like mind on this, but this is unfortunate. It would be nice to see Republicans arguing that the whole action is unjust, unwarranted, unethical, and immoral and should be ended. Instead, some seem focused on implementing it even more aggressively.

  • http://pocketchangeproductions.net/ anotherindyfilmguy

    I’m no fan of the kernel Q but if the reports are true that AQ is helping the rebels then I think we should let the two sides fight it out to the last man.

    Then knock of the surviving winning side if any good reason shows itself such as if AQ wins and takes over or the kernel is still in charge.

  • merryj1

    The “Samantha Powers twit” is married to Cass Sunstein, the “most dangerous czar in America.”