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Obama Winds Down the War on Terror

The killing of Osama bin Laden has created a series of dilemmas for the left. My colleagues have detailed the debt owed the Bush Administration which the current administration juvenilely and churlishly refuses to acknowledge ( here | here). And many on my side are willing “to give the president credit” for doing his duty. According to reports bin Laden’s location has been known to the administration since March with the same degree of certainty that existed on May 1, so I fail to see what credit is really due unless we are saying that indecisiveness is a virtue.

Bin Laden’s death will eventually be seen as the unofficial end of the US assault on al Qaeda. We will leave a war not won and forsake a victory that would make the world a safer place simply because Barack Obama doesn’t have the guts to prevail. What is worse, he wants to give the impression of being serious.

Intelligence is the key tool in fighting any war. Technical means are valuable but the only way you can obtain insights into the enemy’s operations and intentions is through prisoners.

Taking prisoners and getting intelligence from them carries with it three implications: 1) you have a place to keep them, 2) you have a means to extract the information from them in a timely fashion, and 3) you have a plan for what to do with the prisoners when their intelligence value is exhausted.

Even though Obama has backed off his efforts to close the prison at Guantanamo this does not mean he is supportive of its presence. In fact, the easy way to close the prison is to simply stop adding new prisoners while releasing those prisoners held. If you aren’t going to vigorously interrogate the prisoners, because as Leon Panetta reminds us waterboarding does work, why bother taking them in the first place. Lest anyone think this administration will relent on an policy that succeeded in keeping us safe you need look no further than this exchange at Ground Zero between Obama and a member of the 9/11 families group, Debra Burlingame

If you don’t want to watch the video, this is the story:

When the president approached her table, Burlingame said she told him that as a former attorney she knows he can’t tell the attorney general what to do – an assessment the president agreed with, she said.

“And I said, but that shouldn’t stop you from offering your opinion. After all, we wouldn’t be here celebrating today if they hadn’t done their job,” she said. “And they have the hammer of a possible indictment over their heads. Can’t you at least give him your opinion?”

The president replied that he wouldn’t, she said. She added, “And he turned around and walked away.”


As Jennifer Rubin notes

In addition to eliminating the very techniques that allowed us to track down and kill bin Laden, Obama has permitted the Justice Departmentto reopen investigation of previously cleared CIA operatives. Muskaey explains: “ I say ‘reopening’ advisedly because those investigations had all been formally closed by the end of 2007, with detailed memoranda prepared by career Justice Department prosecutors explaining why no charges were warranted. Attorney General Eric Holder conceded that he had ordered the investigations reopened in September 2009 without reading those memoranda. The investigations have now dragged on for years with prosecutors chasing allegations down rabbit holes, with the CIA along with the rest of the intelligence community left demoralized.”

Having a animus against both holding and interrogating prisoners, the administration has developed a novel means of reducing prisoner intake while giving the illusion of actively pursuing al Qaeda. We have simply started killing people who we should be taking prisoner. First, let me say that I do not fault the SEALs for killing Osama bin Laden. In my view he falls into a unique category of prisoner whose continued presence would cause problems far beyond the value of any intelligence he could provide.

According to the Washington Post:

When a window of opportunity opened to strike the leader of al-Qaeda in East Africa last September, U.S. Special Operations forces prepared several options. They could obliterate his vehicle with an airstrike as he drove through southern Somalia. Or they could fire from helicopters that could land at the scene to confirm the kill. Or they could try to take him alive.

The White House authorized the second option. On the morning of Sept. 14, helicopters flying from a U.S. ship off the Somali coast blew up a car carrying Saleh Ali Nabhan. While several hovered overhead, one set down long enough for troops to scoop up enough of the remains for DNA verification. Moments later, the helicopters were headed back to the ship.

The strike was considered a major success, according to senior administration and military officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the classified operation and other sensitive matters. But the opportunity to interrogate one of the most wanted U.S. terrorism targets was gone forever.

The Nabhan decision was one of a number of similar choices the administration has faced over the past year as President Obama has escalated U.S. attacks on the leadership of al-Qaeda and its allies around the globe. The result has been dozens of targeted killings and no reports of high-value detentions.

To say the least, this is not a man who has learned anything about fighting the War on Terror from the death of bin Laden, rather he sees the death of bin Laden as nothing more or less than a monkey that is no longer on his back and it gives him good reason to declare victory both in Afghanistan and in the War on Terror in general.

Our ability to kill or capture terrorists, roll up their networks, and interfere with their operations is being degraded by the lack of fresh information while the administration continues to act like a tee ball team, all the while talking about its “gutsy call.”

COMMENTS

  • juumanistra

    Too many on our side have lost sight of the strategic plot: There’s a poll up on NRO today asking whether, with Osama dead, the U.S. should accelerate its withdrawal from Afghanistan: As of this moment, it’s 42% Yes/42% No/16% Not Sure. I fear war weariness and the siren’s song of To Hell With Them Hawkdom will make declaring victory in Afghanistan a surprisingly well-supported bipartisan maneuver.

    • oldbird77

      . . . that this is what we went to Afghanistan to do. Mission creep has led us to build schools and roads, good work all but not the job of the military. I have a hard time believing that Afghanistan is going to become a modern nation state anytime soon. I’d like to see mass troop numbers begin to come down and we switch over to more special forces and CIA/FBI work that reflects the multinational nature of the threat rather than concentrating on a relatively worthless country. Do I want us to abandon our allies there a la Vietnam? No, but there’s got to be a happy medium and the Afghan government needs to start working things out to stand on it’s own. As it is now, Karzai is becoming a very rich man bilking the US, Iran, and the poppy growers. At some point someone needs to start governing over there and I don’t know if that’ll happen while we act as a crutch and shield.

      • streiff

        to kill bin Laden?

        Silly me, I thought we went there to drive out the Taliban. I must be thinking about another Afghanistan.

        • oldbird77

          . . . we went to Afghanistan was to drive out the Taliban, why did we only invade after they refused to turnover bin Laden? Our cause for war was that they harbored the al Queda leader. They no longer do. If bin Laden had been hiding in Somalia, we wouldn’t have still invaded Afghanistan despite the terrible Taliban regime being there. We would have invaded Somalia. Nobody wants the Taliban to take back over. But, Karzai needs to take some responsibility here and start working towards a political solution, and I don’t think he will as long as he has the security of a massive number of US forces insulating him from the reality of his and his “country’s” situation. (yes I meant country ironically)

          • streiff

            1. Why have we been in Afghanistan since 2002 when bin Laden left? The Taliban ceased to rule at the same time. On that basis alone your argument fails.

            2. Nobody wants the Taliban to take over but you don’t want to do anything to prevent it. Really consistent.

            3. A “political settlement” would entail power sharing with the Taliban. The people “no one” wants back… except the people who don’t want to stop it.

            This is strategic thinking that would do Ron Paul proud.

      • juumanistra

        There’re really only three options for dealing with the strategic conundrum posed to the U.S. by Afghanistan: The direct approach, in which American arms are brought directly to bear against our jihadist enemies in combination with an American-sponsored regime; the indirect approach, which is an adoption of purchasing local control through compensating the tribal powers that be handsomely, which essentially was the British policy during the Raj era; and a hands-off policy, where we leave that pissant craphole to its fate and only intervene through violations of its sovereignty for black ops purposes.

        That is the extent of it: Given that declaring victory and going home ends the usage of the first choice and no real appetite for the consequences of the second appears to exist, we’re more or less stuck with the third if the worst comes to pass re: Obama.

        • oldbird77

          if we just want to slaughter the population that’ll solve all of OUR problems, but I don’t think anyone has the stomach for that. And paying tribute to some two-bit warlords seems almost as distasteful.

          • juumanistra

            The classic approach, as perfected by the British, is to take the competing tribes and pit them against each other in a quest to curry favor and financial patronage. Said favor and patronage are awarded on the basis of, broadly speaking, not rocking the boat and keeping things broadly peaceable. There’re plenty of more mercenary tribal sorts that positive working relationships could be forged with in the fight against the jihadists: The problem that most of these men are rather odious thugs of the sort that many Americans cringe at the sight of.

            The Brits didn’t particularly care about what the Pashtuns did to themselves or each other with the patronage that was provided, so long as the Raj was not molested. That strategy might be able to work, if actually pursued, but I sincerely doubt that in the modern media environment that the stomach could be found for the atrocities that would sooner or later be committed with American “blood money”.

          • streiff

            that’s a pretty bizarre way to term it. Paying bribes to retain loyalty has been part of the foreign policy of the US, and every other nation, since the beginning of warfare. From where I sit paying a few dollars makes more sense than getting people killed.

    • aesthete

      but IMO, leaving Afghanistan is a good move at this point. Al-Qaeda in Central Asia has been eviscerated thanks to our initial invasion, and we are mostly treading water in our other interests (building a democratic regime, general centralization of government in Afghanistan, civilian protection, etc). IMO, concentrating our resources in building a society in one of the most ungovernable parts of the world is a waste of time, and I find it hard to see what national interests our continued occupation advances.

  • kellyclayton

    We do not have a choice on the war on terror. We can pull out all some of you would like and they’d still be at war with us. This is not two silly kids in an argument and we just need one of us to make the first step of a truce. This war will not end until they feel they’ve won. We didn’t start this, we were dragged into it, but there’s no way out. If we pull out we have only two choices, fight them here or start brushing up on our Quran. I also feel just killing them is a mistake. Not only for the information but also, they fear being caught and being forced to squel more then death. If death is the highest risk for them it’s not enough. Dying for the cause of Islam is the only way to insure paradise for them, according to their belief.

  • blooch

    Seems they’re not raising it anymore, as it offends the delicate sensibilities of the inmates…or they’re qiuetly raising our flag it a closet somewhere, no doubt with a mute in the reveille bugle. I have to believe that this came from the White House…Maybe “Beer Pong” Tommy Vietor, who apparently got a promotion to NSC Spokesman after the BP disaster. The WH logic must be, ” “You cannot raise the flag without offending the prisoners, so free the prisoners if you want to raise the flag again.”

    • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

      I had not heard about this. Can you provide a link, please?

      • blooch

        Here’s the link to the gitmo flag outrage:

        http://bigpeace.com/dreaboi/2011/05/03/new-book-on-ksm-us-military-defers-to-inmates-hides-us-flag-at-gitmo/

        and here’s the link to Tommy V…though you probably don’t give a tinker’s dam about that kid. Still, I bet he gets Jay Carney’s job before long:

        http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/05/06/bin-laden-killing-white-house-pentagon-cia-botched-storyline/

        • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

          Every time I think the current situation can’t possibly get any more surrealistic, I’m proven wrong. No one could make this stuff up.

  • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

    They will wake up — if ever — when a Mumbai-style attack or worse, a Beslan-style attack occurs in America.

    • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

      and as a mother and, for that matter, as a citizen, I resent the hell out of that.

  • jamesonx

    Our ability to kill or capture terrorists, roll up their networks, and interfere with their operations is being degraded by the lack of fresh information…

    Yes, the Obama administration is not sending people to Gitmo anymore. And yes, they have ended waterboarding. Undeniable facts. But the thesis of your post is basically this last line – that our intelligence on the whereabouts of terrorists is being degraded – but you provide no evidence to back that up. Is there any?

    I’m no expert on terrorism, but I can read the news. We just found and killed Bin Laden, and today we had a near-miss on another top 5 guy. Again, not an expert, but it seems to me like our intelligence capabilities with respect to finding and killing terrorists are in pretty good shape.

    • aesthete

      and for what purpose? I have no idea where we’re at in Yemen, but Al-Qaeda’s ability to launch any sort of attack has been dramatically reduced due to the death/capture of many of its veteran agent provocateurs. As much of a running joke as it was to hear that Al-Qaeda’s #2 or #3 guy was killed in Afghanistan, the truth of the matter is that Al-Qaeda has been stripped entirely of its hardened and experienced core. In that sense, there isn’t much intel out there that needs capturing, especially relative to the amount that we needed at the beginning of the conflict.

      Mind you, I don’t actually think that Obama’s actions in office are significantly different from Bush’s: we never waterboarded at Gitmo, our interrogation centers in Poland and Romania are still open for business, and renditions are being picked up. There is more continuity than not between Bush and Obama on GWoT policies in Yemen, the Philippines, etc. The changes made by Obama and co have mostly been marginal or cosmetic, not fundamental.

      • jamesonx

        I guess I’m just looking at it relative to the past 5-10 years in terms of results, i.e. high-value terrorists killed or captured.

        Yeah, I agree with you though, there has been more continuity in the WoT policies than people sometimes appreciate. And to me at least, that makes the OP’s argument not very compelling.

    • blooch

      on 9/11 because somebody flipped a tooggle switch down on 9/10. It was a long incremental slide over many years.

      Lottery winners like Obama are famous for squandereing their unearned fortunes on flashy baubles. We ‘d be wise to set up a conservatorship for our own good. You may think it’s fun hanging out by the gold-plated pool with him…until the day the mob shows up to collect on his gambling debts.

    • http://theheartlander.wordpress.com/ heartlander

      …our counterterrorism efforts in many areas of the Middle East have been disrupted — and/or discontinued — because of all the political turmoil going on there these last few months.

      For nearly a decade, the U.S. has conducted a major cloak-and-missile campaign against al Qaeda, teaming up with friendly Arab leaders to swap intelligence, interrogate suspects, train commandos or carry out military strikes from Morocco to Iraq….

      Now popular movements sweeping the region have knocked some counterterrorism allies from power, and left others too distracted or politically vulnerable to risk open cooperation with the U.S.

      Intelligence-sharing has already slowed in some areas as the U.S. struggles to identify reliable counterparts in reshuffled governments.

      …The upheaval has upended U.S. foreign policy in the region, with old friends shaken or gone and the allegiance of emerging leaders uncertain. The effects on counterterrorism efforts are one of the aftershocks that worry the intelligence community the most.

  • wilee

    Everyone send Obama a MOTHER Card.