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FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

The Speaker’s Plan Is A Bad Bargain

Unlike several of my colleagues, I find there is a lot to like in the plan put forward yesterday by Speaker Boehner.

I like the idea of a smaller increase in the debt ceiling to give time and a sense of urgency to work out some very difficult problems that can’t be solved in the short term.

I like the idea of this debate taking place again during the course of the 2012 election campaign as a way to put our candidates at all levels on the record in favor of fiscal sanity.

I like the idea of statutory caps on spending though, having lived through the era of the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Deficit Reduction Act and the Concord Coalition, I’m not terribly sanguine about any statutory measure that doesn’t involve federal marshals and congressmen spending time in jail for failure to comply. Just remember, there is statutory requirement that the Senate pass an annual budget.

What is unthinkable, in my view, is this bastardized “joint committee.”

As they say, the devil is in the details. I’ll freely admit that I don’t know the details of how this committee would operate but, on the other hand, the people who want me to support the plan haven’t seen fit to share those details either. This makes it, to use the metaphor I grew up with, a pig in a poke.

On its face the idea looks enticing. To get any substantive reform of Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security through the Senate requires finding a way to 1) ensure the bill is actually voted on and 2) prevent the lefty Dems who dominate that body from using a filibuster or attaching contradictory amendments. In the final analysis, this is the kind of operation that will have to take place, something along the lines of the Base Realignment and Closing Commissions, that will prevent a minority of senators from driving us into the fiscal ditch.

The main problem with this that conservatives will only have a maximum of three votes on the committee. There is no way a Jim DeMint, Mike Lee, Marco Rubio, or even that arch-conservative Orin Hatch are going to be selected by McConnell to sit on the committee. We’ll have three squishy, go-along-get-along “statesmen” who will do what they are told by Schumer, Durbin, and Reid. From the outset, conservatives lose this battle.

The second problem is that we don’t know what the “joint committee” will look at. We know from the outset that at least six of the twelve members will consider any reductions in taxes a “tax expenditure” and will demand that tax rates be up for negotiation. I’d feel better if there was more precision in describing what the joint committee would cut.

The third problem is, and it may result in a poor choice of words by the various sources, that there is no requirement that the president sign anything to get the $1.5T in additional debt authority. In other words, the joint committee is engaged in little more than mutual onanism.

This makes the deal a non-starter as far as I’m concerned. I’d feel much more comfortable with the Speaker committed to executing the first half of the plan as often as it takes because the man who determines the success or failure of the second part is Obama who has shown he cares about nothing more than his reelection.

COMMENTS

  • carolina

    been negotiated with the senate – and that the senate will pass it.
    BO will be ‘forced’ to sign it, or be responsible for defalut.
    This a compromise that the GOP seems to think is the best they can get.

    • streiff

      The debt increase is automatic when the legislation produced by the joint committee is passed by the House and Senate, not when it is signed into law. If the debt increase took place when the bill was signed there might be some merit to the idea.

  • http://dreamsfrommyforefathers.com RoguePolitics

    nt

  • Carner_York

    I’ve been following the debt limiit debate for quite some time now. An overwhelming percentage of conservative pundits and bloggers have been convinced that the GOP would cave and I admit that I believed the same thing. But they haven’t. Boehner has stood firm and I applaud him for it. There was never any possibility of getting immediate spending cuts or, for that matter, any positive long term deal. It’s simply not doable with Obama in the WH. I don’t like the committee portion of Boehner’s plan but I don’t think the plan will have any chance of passing without it. Boehner’s plan, if passed into law will accomplish some good things. It will confirm that the President cannot run roughshod over the Congress. It will allow the GOP to keep Obama on a somewhat shorter leash. It will keep the debt topic out there and it will shake Obama to his core. I am convinced that Obama believes that he can get his way with rhetoric alone and that the American people trust him.. If the Boehner bill passes, look for a lot more gray hair on Obama’s head.

    • Repair_Man_Jack

      I like your attitude. A 2nd public debt debate is not what Obama wants right before he revs up the campaign bus to promise everything to everyone on the Gubbermint’s tab.

    • http://dreamsfrommyforefathers.com RoguePolitics

      The House could balance the budget today.

      Simply refuse to raise the debt ceiling.

      Balanced.

      The left would go screaming bonkers but then they are screaming bonkers.

      If we do or don’t raise the debt ceiling is of little consequence to conservatives (except raising it is the politically risky thing) since it is liberal voters who are bought and paid for using borrowed money.

      The left on the other hand would be guilty of failing to deliver on their half of the cash for votes bargain.

      Let their base eat them when they fail.

      • Repair_Man_Jack

        We do exactly that. We put up with this as long as Dems still have legitimate political power. After the next election, they will have much less of that left.

      • sarg01

        But Obama would get to decide the entirety of the cuts.

        And going cold-turkey on government spending really would crash the economy in the short term, and Republicans would rightfully be blamed. In the long term it’d be beneficial, but you’re talking years down the road – after conservatives are tossed out of office in droves and Obama wins re-election.

        Then permanently-entrenched Obamacare will simply eat up the savings.

        • http://dreamsfrommyforefathers.com RoguePolitics

          Easy enough for Boehner to pass out a small ceiling bump that requires Social Security, Military pay and debt service to be prioritized in the future.

          At that point the sell is simple. “We gave them the money AND protected seniors and soldiers and they wouldn’t take it.

          On the other hand Gingrich paid a price for dealing with the devil, first he lost seats in the house and second the devil got re-elected as the WINNER.

          Right now the Republicans seem determined to follow the ONLY path that could get Bacha re-elected.

          People vote for winners. Give him victory in this and he will win in 2012.

          The Republicans will be much less likely to take the Senate and may lose seats in the House. History repeats itself because people do the same boneheaded things over and over. Lessons must be learned.

    • bgintn

      As I have posted before for these reasons.

      There is one fundamental problem with the entire plan. Unlike the actual CCB plan, this proposal would hand the Democrat wolves the keys to the spending hen house first, while promising unverifiable and unenforceable cuts later. The bottom line is that once we return the federal credit card to the Democrats, they will no longer have any incentive to vote for a balanced budget amendment.

      It is very plain that neither side is interested in actually reducing the size of government. Nowhere in the negotiations has anything been mentioned about eliminating any programs, government departments, or subsidies.

      Any political deal that meets one side?s demands up front and promises to meet the other side?s demands in the future is a bad deal for the side that bets on the outcome. Congress has no legal obligation to deliver on its promises.

      In other words, with the exception of contractual obligations which bind the government of the United States, promises of future action or inaction by Congress have no legal force.

      The reality is that every act of Congress that has not created a contractual obligation can be undone by the Congress that enacted it or by any future Congress.

      Please remember, When you compromise with evil you are stupid.
      The outcome of the compromise ends up being both stupid and evil.

      So, sir in my opinion, NO! to both plans.
      The Cut, Cap and Balance is ‘far from enough’, but it is the best so far.

    • ihateliberals

      I fyou think Boehner won’t cave then you don’t know the RINO Boehner. we aren’t up to the deadline yet and he will cave in some fashion. I know tha t and the Democrats know that. The Democrats think ths is 1995 again and they are so wrong. People are smarter now and they recognise that the Democrats are not willing to negotiate at all. Harry Reid so much as said the other day no matter what the House GOP sends thier way it is DOA. What kind of negotiation is that?

      • ihateliberals

  • Paul Seale

    Still reading and have lots of questions.. but I am leaning toward your position, Streiff.

    There are too many unknowns at this time for me to sigh with any sense of relief.

    I am still concerned about the following points:

    -Where is the 4 trillion necessary to avoid downgrade.. I gather 3t+ from reports.. havent gotten that far in the plan yet to count specifics past that number

    -Any sort of committee. Dont like the idea, truthfully. This could be offset if there were gaurantees by leadership to put nonsquishy real fiscal conservatives on the group.. I am somewhat relieved to understand that the committee decision must survive an up or down vote in the main bodies.. this means that the decision to raise taxes could come out of the committee, but killed upon hitting the floor. If the proposal was for the committee to come up with and pass by its self law, I would say no way in the devil is it viable and support killing the proposal.

    In short, I want more details. Too many unanswered important questions for me at the moment.

    • Paul Seale

      Forgot to add the whole revote on adding to the deficit.. not sure why it is in the plan.. While it is different from McConnell’s plan, in that the responsibility is still Congress’s and Obama is not getting a free hand, I still find it odd for the need to get a free pass to raise the debt limit with minimal political pain.

      • acat

        Good luck hanging onto your business, Paul.

        Things are not going to get better.

        Had we held the line, we’d have a better deal today.

        Mew

  • http://travismonitor.blogspot.com Freedoms Truth

    Our conservative activists are missing the upside in this half-glass-full scenario:

    1) We get spending cuts defined up-front on our terms, in exchange for only 6 month extension on debt ceiling.
    2) WE CAN MAKE REPEAL OF OBAMACARE THE NEXT LINE IN THE SAND.
    3) Fight to get conservatives on the panel … “There is no way a Jim DeMint, Mike Lee, Marco Rubio, or even that arch-conservative Orin Hatch are going to be selected by McConnell” … why NOT?
    4) Fight to get Cut, Cap and Balance principles AND #2 – repeal of Obamacare – in the plan, or write up an alternative.
    5) NOTHING happens in February without the House, the GOP House, going forward with it. Again, #2, Obamacare is put ON the table over the next few months IF CONSERVATIVES START MAKING NOISE ABOUT IT.

    We are looking at the downside of another commission, not seeing the upside in the opportunity to have a plan that repeals obamacare on the table.

    What this gives us and why Senator Schumer calls this ‘dangerous’:
    - Tough votes for 23 Democrat Senators
    - MORE front-and-center discussion of the deficit during the election year, an issue the GOP owns
    - Opportunity to cut more and address debt crisis more fully
    - Opportunity to refocus the ‘entitlement’ discussion on the cost of Obamacare
    - This is setting a GOOD precedent. Shorter debt ceiling increases and deficit/debt reduction plans tied to them.

    Boehner’s bargain is a path to Obamacare repeal.

    This is far better than Reid’s fake-cuts plan.

  • http://www.AmericanThinker.com Hammer2008

    Why not let the balance budget amendment passed on to the States be the “trigger” for the debt commission? A balanced budget amendment should motivate the “commission” to get on with cuts before the power is taken away from them. Any cuts should or reductions via less tax breaks should be tethered to time with ratification of the amendment. 5 years maximum.

    Said commission be open to public and aired over CSPAN. It should have 10+10 and require 12 votes to?move further identified budget cuts directly to?floor, not 12 (which could result in 6 democrat plus 1 republican). ?Furthermore, said GOP members should include Rep. Cantor, Rep. Ryan and at least half be freshman.

    • snowshooze

      But that ball and chain should be stamped on everything. Not just the commission, but every single plan that moves on this debt ceiling battle.

      • http://www.AmericanThinker.com Hammer2008

        23 democrat Senators up for re-election in 2012. How many of them care to join the 47 to pass the BBA?

  • gunslingr45

    I like the idea of this debate taking place again during the course of the 2012 election campaign as a way to put our candidates at all levels on the record in favor of fiscal sanity.

    I say why? So they can LIE to us again?

    It sucks to be a liberal when you run out of OPM (other people’s money.)

    • streiff

      buying some of Glenn Beck’s non-genetically modified seeds and stealing off to a National Forest somewhere and wait out Armageddon.

      • gunslingr45

        may be right except that I would be marching with a pitchfork and torch and not hiding if thats what it were to come to.
        I took an oath to defend the Constitution with my life if it came to that. I did so in a time when socialist were spitting on soldiers for doing what their country ask them to. Was not scared then, and I don’t think an Honorable discharge relieves me of that obligation. Do you? Unlike Obumber, I felt a pride when I took mine.
        I always have and always will rail against anyone I deem disloyal to that cause, be it Liberal or RINO which really are one and the same to me.
        As Erick is fond of saying HOLD THE LINE! That means holding and not negotiating a peace or surrender that favors the enemy in any way.
        And if you don’t think we have been lied to by some of these people (and will be again) then just know they are counting on you.

        Socialism billions dead, but liberals keep wanting to try it?..

      • ihateliberals

        We are supposed to be on the same side here. One problem the last leadership of the GOP created a haven for RINO’s. The created a riff in the Party which didn’t strengthen it but weakened it. there is nothing wrong with debate but why the name calling and nastiness? streiff Glen Beck is part of the conservative movement as is Michelle Bachman, Rush Limbaugh and many others. If not for the Tea Party we would not even be having this conversation. The Democrats would stil be in control of Congress and the Debt Ceiling would have been raised months ago. Let’s quit fighting with ourselves and defeat the Liberals.

  • gunslingr45

    use all caps? everyone by now must know (on redstate and elsewhere) that I hate the traitors (RINOs) worse than I hate the liberals. At least liberals admit being what they are (socialist.)

    Know Liberals/RINO?S, Know Despair.
    No Liberals/RINO?S, No Despair.

    • ihateliberals

      I hate RINO’s the worse because they claim to be something they aren’t. they lean conservative just enough to get elected. Under GW Bush (a RINO president both of them) and Michael Steele, Karl Rove etc. they told conservatives they were not welcome in the party. Then when the Conservatives Organized as the Tea Party they went on the attack even though the Tea Party is what put them into power. I have never seen democrat turn anyone away.

      We must either take back the GOP or form a New Conservative Party. Not the Tea Party though something new and inviting.

  • ihateliberals

    as the battle to be fighting? Why not just get rid of it and move on to the real fight we sent the GOP there to take care of and that is Obamacare? Boehner and the Elite GOP do not want ot repeal Obamacare. They don’t want to admit that the Tea Party had any influence on their rise to power. The longer they wait the harder it wil be to repeal just like Social Security was after FDR. The end of WWI and the Korean War side tracked the GOP and that stopped the Repeal of the Social Security act. Now the Democrats and elite Republicans want to side-track the GOP on Obamacare. The Insurance companies don’t know that they have been lied to and that they will not be the insurers of the 30 million additions. the Government has the intent of becoing the insurance company and putting free market insurance companies out of business.

  • ihateliberals

    Simply defund the projects that are eating up the money. Obamacare for one and foreign aid etc etc. They don’t need the Senate or the President to take that action, they just need a Majority vote the House.

    • d_lamar

      The US Constitution granted the House of Representatives absolute veto power over government spending. If the house doesn’t approve the president or senate’s spending plan, all it has to do is not vote to approve.

      We’re in the mess we’re in now because the house has always gone along with Obama’s spending.

      If I were in congress, I’d never vote for any bill or appropriation that contained even one penny for the epa, nlrb, npr, planned parenthood, departments of education, commerce, or energy, obamacare, or foreign aid for terrorists organizations or supporters of terror. To me, that’s an easy vote.