Swingometer: Gallup Party ID figures predict solid Romney win
We always talk about the independent, swing vote in elections because those tend to be the persuadables. But party ID numbers matter as well, because those partisan voters tend to split better than 90/10 for their party.
It is for that reason that Gallup’s new partisan ID split, one that mimics what Rasmussen has been saying all along, predicts nothing less than doom for the Democrats, and a solid, national win for Mitt Romney this year.
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The Current Electoral College State of Play
Two weeks before Election Day, all signs point to this being a very tight election. Romney clearly seized the momentum with his debate win two weeks ago – one which Obama failed to stop with his stronger performance last week. Most national polls show Romney with a 2-3 point lead; however, the state polls show an even tighter race. One thing has not changed in | Read More »
Romney vs. Obama still too close to call
Rasmussen Reports’ daily presidential tracking poll for Thursday, Sept. 27, 2012, finds the presidential race tied at 46 percent for both Governor Romney and President Obama. If you count “leaners,” it’s tied at 48 percent. The Rasmussen tracker has had Romney and Obama tied or within a point of each other for each of the seven days since we reported that Obama’s seven point lead | Read More »
Pennsylvania considering Electoral College split
Governor Tom Corbett and Pennsylvania Republicans are considering legislation to change the allocation of Pennsylvania’s Presidential electors. Instead of awarding all 20 on a winner take all basis, the plan by Senate leader Dominic Pileggi would switch to the Congressional district model currently in use by Nebraska and Maine. In Nebraska and Maine, the statewide popular vote for President only determines two Presidential electors, the | Read More »
The Census Bureau today released the official reapportionment figures from the 2010 Census, which will determine (1) what states gain and lose House seats and thus will be prime targets for redistricting and (2) what states correspondingly gain and lose votes in the Electoral College for 2012. By and large, the news was good for the GOP. For the immediate impact, I’ll focus on the | Read More »
Further Relegating The Constitution To Irrelevance One State Law At A Time
On reliable authority (from those much smarter than I) I’m told that this notion of abandoning the traditions of the Electoral College is well within the rights of the “some several States” as afforded them in the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution and that sending Electors from each of these “some several States” with specific instructions to cast their ballot for the person with | Read More »