2012 shaping up like 2004, on the Generic Congressional Ballot level.
I spent perhaps a bit too much time this morning trying to put the spreadsheet below into graphical form: Pollster Time R D R +/- NPR Oct 3/4 43 43 0 NPR Sept 4/4 45 48 -3 Politico Oct 4/4 46 45 1 Politico Oct 3/4 46 46 0 Politico Oct 2/4 44 46 -2 Politico Oct 1/4 45 46 -1 Politico Sept 4/4 44 | Read More »
Attention, @barackobama: Source required on “We will not let the truth get in the way.”
On Wednesday, at a speech in Charlottesville, VA, President Obama made this statement: And they were asked about it and they said — one of their campaign people said, we won’t have the fact-checkers dictate our campaign. (Laughter.) We will not let the truth get in the way. (Laughter.) This is a reference to comments made Tuesday by Romney pollster Neil Newhouse to Buzzfeed regarding | Read More »
On that potentially troublesome Cook County poll.
The Daily Caller reported on a poll today that gave a rather remarkable result: it showed Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 49 to 37… in Cook County, Illinois: which of course includes the City of Chicago. Being under 50% in what can be considered the ultimate Democratic stronghold is not good news for the President. In 2008 Cook County went for Obama over McCain | Read More »
Collusion between Obama for America and Priorities USA on ‘their’ lying Soptic ads.
The Story So Far: two days ago, the Obama administration – using the fig-leaf/cutout of Super PAC Priorities USA – accused Mitt Romney of being a murderer because a company that Romney used to own closed down a steel mill (several years after Romney left that company) and that meant that the wife of the husband who lost his job at that steel mill (one | Read More »
Tags: and I approved this message.
, Bain Capital
, Barack Obama
, Bill Burton
, I'm Barack Obama
, Joe Soptic
, Mitt Romney
, obama for america
, Priorities USA
, Stephanie Cutter
Crunching the July 2011 Rasmussen trust numbers.
I stopped doing this in the middle of 2010, once it became clear that the real question of 2010 was how many hits to the head with the snake the Democrats were going to take before it was all over. As the answer was “a lot,” I feel that this was a wise prioritization of my time. But it’s a new cycle, so let’s look | Read More »
Fourth of July: REPUBLICAN BREEDING GROUND!!!!!
[UPDATE: Promoted, with a link added from AoSHQ. I wish that I had written #1 on that list. - ML] I suspect that the Democratic party probably doesn’t want to ever see this sentence from a Harvard statistical survey appear in a news story: Taken together, the results indicate that Fourth of July celebrations in the United States shape the nation’s political landscape by forming | Read More »
Gallup: Obama slips with African-Americans, Hispanics…
Gallup mentions the most obvious point – the President has slipped from his historical approval rating among African-Americans (usually around 92%) all the way down to 85%* – but it kind of obscures a detail on the graph with regard to Hispanic voters. They acknowledge that the President is currently at a low with 54% of those voters, but Gallup does not point out that | Read More »
Glenn Beck Did Not Tell His Audience To Shoot Anybody
Patterico notes a meme being rapidly spread by left-wing bloggers: that Glenn Beck told his viewers to shoot Democratic Members of Congress in the head. This is, sadly, the kind of thing the left-blogs try to put over on their readers, hoping it will stick quickly before the facts can come out. But I would not advise doing that while the likes of Patterico are | Read More »
Message for Meg Whitman: Go on Offense. Now.
The best way past a “scandal” for a Republican is through it. Take a day or two – no more, no less – to think it through, find a line of attack and go on offense. If George Allen had done that instead of trying to plead, ignore and then cower his way past the “macaca” incident, we’d not have the tragedy of both Senators | Read More »
So, DSCC: which candidate will you abandon…
…to firewall Connecticut? Propelled by Connecticut likely voters who say they are “angry” with government, former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, the Republican U.S. Senate candidate, is closing in on Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, and now trails just 49 – 46 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 51 – 45 percent Blumenthal lead in a September 14 | Read More »
The poll that scares the Democrats most.
It’s this one, from the never-to-be-sufficiently-hated-by-the-Left Rasmussen: and on its face it’s innocuous enough. It’s the partisan identification poll, and it currently lists Democrats at 35%, Republicans at 33.8%, and Neither at 31.1%. Unsurprising, based on recent events, right? – Also, it’s a poll of adults, so this probably means a Republican advantage among likely voters, as that’s the usual rule of thumb for these | Read More »
The August Rasmussen Trust Numbers.
The latest Rasmussen trust numbers are out, after what was an odd formatting thing that made me decide to stop reporting them until things settled down. Short version: Rasmussen has replaced Abortion with Afghanistan in the top ten category; the GOP won all ten, including that perennial heartbreaker Government Ethics; and the numbers nonetheless show a shift away from July’s numbers, mostly because July’s numbers | Read More »
Reid: Back to the Drawing Board for Energy Bill
As reported by Politico, Harry Reid has decided not to advance the Democrats’ Senate energy bill prior to the body’s scheduled August recess. The matter will be reconsidered when the Senate returns after Labor Day. Senate Democrats punt on spill bill “It’s a sad day when you can’t find a handful of Republicans to support a bill … that would hold BP accountable for the worst | Read More »
Gallup whispers DOOM in 2010.
With less than four months to go before the fall elections, the greatest growth industry in the country right now is the tea importation business: everybody who has any interest in the November results is trying his or her hand at precognition. Gallup is no exception: This year’s low approval ratings for Congress are a potentially ominous sign for President Obama and the Democratic majority | Read More »
The May Rasmussen trust numbers.
There’s no article up on them yet, but the raw numbers are available here. May 2010 April 2010 Issue Dem GOP Diff Dem GOP Diff Shift Health Care 41% 48% (7) 41% 48% (7) – Education 40% 43% (3) 43% 39% 4 (7) Social Security 40% 42% (2) 40% 42% (2) – Abortion 40% 42% (2) 40% 42% (2) – Economy 39% 48% (9) 39% | Read More »