Checking the polls, Indiana is winnable for Ted Cruz
Lately I’ve been leaning hard on the 538 projections to see where we’re at with the Republican nomination. After a good stretch he’s close enough that uncommitted delegates could get him over the top. But he’s projected to take a near sweep in Indiana. Will he perform?
BREAKING: New Game-Changing Poll Shows Ted Cruz CLOBBERING Trump By Double Digits in Indiana!!
A new poll is out today, and the results are great news for Ted Cruz and America in general, showing Senator Cruz Trump with a double-digit lead.
Read More »
Donald Trump in New York confirms: Poll averages are dead
Public political polling has been dying for the last 10 years. The end of the landline telephone era and the rise of the Internet have combined to turn it from a reasonably accurate public service, into a farce existing solely to draw clicks.
Polling averages served to take the polls, which were increasingly inaccurate, and piece together some sort of coherent message from them. But now the polls are so wrong, even the polling averages have outlived their usefulness.
Read More »
New York Provides a Last Chance at Redemption for the Pollsters
Never before in an election season has the polling been more abysmal. Not even during their disastrous performance during the 2014 midterms have polling companies been so consistently wrong, and measured so many candidates’ performance outside the margin of error. Most astonishingly, the polls have all erred in one direction: the direction of overstating Trump’s support. Trump has underperformed his RCP average in every primary | Read More »
Polling update: Donald Trump choking away Wisconsin, on the edge in New York
Donald Trump has led by as much as 10 points in Wisconsin polling and is approaching the critical 50% threshold in New York, but both states could end up terrible disappointments for the Branch Trumpidians.
Read More »
March 8 Poll Post Mortem. That Wino Is Back On the Job
Whatever the pollsters have been doing wrong, well, they are still doing it. Only bigger and better.
Read More »
New South Carolina Polls Show A BIG Surprise
Tomorrow’s Republican primary in South Carolina could provide some big surprises, if you believe some of the latest polls. The most dramatic is a new poll from Opinion Savvy showing that Marco Rubio might be in striking distance of longtime frontrunner Donald Trump. Of course, you should take any poll with a grain of salt, and there’s a flurry of them telling us different things. | Read More »
BREAKING RUMOR. Ted Cruz Trails Trump By Only Six In South Carolina. Marco Rubio Closing the Gap.
This is what it is. A rumor. But it is a rumor sufficiently well-placed that Bill Kristol feels comfortable running with it: Trump 32; Cruz 26; Rubio 20; Bush 10; Carson 7; Kasich 2. Keep in mind this is not an internal campaign poll but one that will be published in the next day or so. Compare and contrast with the trend lines. If true, | Read More »
Sanders & Rubio Gain While 30% of Repubs ‘Would DEFINITELY NOT Support’ Trump in New Quinnipiac Poll
A new Quinnipiac national poll is out, one of the first since the Iowa caucus, and it shows that there is a wide swatch of Republicans who simply will not line up behind Trump. More importantly, it shows who might be able to corral the voters, as Marco Rubio starts closing the gap. Rubio also proves to be the most well-liked candidate, and the one | Read More »
Shocker Iowa poll shows a big shake up in Iowa
I’ve been saying all along that anything could happen in the Iowa polling during the last month. And, as it turns out, I was right. With two new polls out today, we’re seeing what looks like a very late breaking surge for one candidate. What once was a Donald Trump vs Ted Cruz race, might now be a three-way contest with Marco Rubio. And in | Read More »
Myth BusTED: Ted Cruz actually isn’t falling in Iowa
The results of a political poll are deep and complex. We tend to boil them down very simply though, because most of the time we’re polling two-way, winner-take-all elections. Those races are generally zero-sum games between the candidates. The Iowa Caucuses however are as far from a two-way winner-take-all election as you can get. They’re a multi-way contest with proportional results. So the usual heuristics | Read More »
17 days away from Iowa: Can Rubio or Cruz stump Trump?
We’re 17 days from the Iowa caucuses. As Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio look to stump Donald Trump, who currently holds a very slim lead in Iowa and a 15 point margin in the national polling average, let’s compare how Trump stands, with previous frontrunners this far out. Can Trump be beaten this late in the game?
Ted Cruz Leads Donald Trump And the Rest Of the Field In New California Poll
The new Field Poll shows Ted Cruz with a small lead over Donald Trump. Generally, the same trends observed in other polls are apparent here. What makes this poll significant is that it calls Rubio’s campaign strategy into question.
Read More »
Poll Round-Up. Trump Leads In National And State Poll. Rubio In Third In Florida
Several new polls came out yesterday: two national and three state polls. On the whole, the national polls tell us very little we didn’t already know. The state polls are a lot more interesting. FoxNews Trump 39, Cruz 18, Rubio 11, Carson 9, Bush 3, Christie 3, Fiorina 3, Huckabee 1, Kasich 2, Paul 3, Graham 0, Santorum 1, Pataki 0 PPP (yeah, I know, | Read More »