Swingometer: Gallup Party ID figures predict solid Romney win

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 26th at 12:00 PM  | 

We always talk about the independent, swing vote in elections because those tend to be the persuadables. But party ID numbers matter as well, because those partisan voters tend to split better than 90/10 for their party.

It is for that reason that Gallup’s new partisan ID split, one that mimics what Rasmussen has been saying all along, predicts nothing less than doom for the Democrats, and a solid, national win for Mitt Romney this year.

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Conflicting polls in the Massachusetts Senate Race

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 20th at 02:30 PM  | 

I’m happiest when all the polls in a race match up. It means we have a very good idea of how a race is going for the candidates in it. So, naturally, I’m not happy about the Massachusetts Senate race right now. Seeing a 10 point swing from poll to poll, giving both candidates opposing 5 point leads, means we have to dig deeper to | Read More »

Steelman over 50% vs McCaskill in Missouri

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 19th at 04:00 PM  | 

I’m glad that we’re now starting to have a better idea of the shape of the Senate race, as we settle down on who the candidates are going to be, and how they’re polling against incumbents (or each other, in the case of open seats). Soon I will update my Senate projections with actual data. In the meantime, we’ve got the first Missouri Senate poll | Read More »

Bob Kerrey’s unfriendly welcome back to Nebraska politics

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 9th at 01:00 PM  | 

Medal of Honor recipient, former Senator, and former Governor Bob Kerrey has announced he will run for Senate in Nebraska to replace Ben Nelson, the man who replaced him in the Senate. Common sense suggests a multiple-time statewide winner with a distinguished personal history would be a favorite to win the open seat. New polling however suggests Kerrey is a large underdog to Republican Jon | Read More »

Mittmentum moves to Ohio, Gingrich leads Georgia on a true Super Tuesday

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  March 5th at 11:30 AM  | 

The Republican party has held five primaries this cycle to date: New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Michigan, and Arizona. Mitt Romney won the statewide vote in four of them, including the last three. Super Tuesday tomorrow will shake all that up, of course. But Ohio looks to be one state Romney may come back to win from Rick Santorum.

Primary Day update of Michigan and Arizona

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  February 28th at 12:00 PM  | 

Last I looked at these two Republican Presidential primaries, the first primaries since Florida and the first binding races since Nevada, I called it Mittmentum. I was right about Arizona. Michigan though has remained complicated.

Huge Romney bounce in Florida

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 26th at 11:00 AM  | 

We were spoiled by the New Hampshire and South Carolina polling. Those states weren’t stagnant in voter opinion, but they at least moved at reasonable speeds, and allowed for a clear understanding of what was going on. Florida is different. After swinging 20 points to Newt Gingrich, has now gone 10-15 points right back to Mitt Romney.

Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 23rd at 11:00 AM  | 

When word came out of InsiderAdvantage’s new Florida poll, I said to myself “I’ve heard this story before.” Newt Gingrich shooting up like a rocket, but confirmation is needed. Rasmussen provided the confirmation.

One pollster gives Gingrich South Carolina surge, others disagree

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 19th at 07:00 AM  | 

InsiderAdvantage polled South Carolina just a few days ago on the 15th, and Mitt Romney had a 32-21 lead on Newt Gingrich. NewsMax had them poll again on the 18th, and the results were different. Gingrich takes his first SC poll lead in a month.

Primary Day in New Hampshire

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 10th at 10:30 AM  | 

I made a big deal about the polling in Iowa being skewed. However I have no reason to suspect oddness in the New Hampshire polling going into today. Open primaries are much easier to poll than closed caucuses. Jon Huntsman has rebounded rapidly, but he’ll likely finish behind Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

Romney still leading, Huntsman out of the Hunt in New Hampshire?

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  January 6th at 04:30 PM  | 

Three quick polls of New Hampshire came out this week to try to measure the effect of Iowa on New Hampshire. Predictably, the top three of Iowa are now the top three in New Hampshire. This matters most to the one candidate that put nothing into Iowa and everything into New Hampshire: Jon Huntsman.

Iowa Poll Update: This news is ridiculous

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  December 29th at 09:30 PM  | 

Rick Santorum. Now? Seriously? This is ridiculous. How are prognosticators supposed to do our jobs if we get a break so late it makes Mike Huckabee look like an early frontrunner? Seriously, Iowa, simmer down now. All I know is Ron Paul isn’t winning. Beyond that, anything’s possible.

Rasmussen: Newt Stands Alone

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  December 1st at 02:30 PM  | 

I’ve been going crazy since Thanksgiving. We hadn’t gotten any polls over the long holiday weekend, and then no polling was conducted over the weekend itself, so we went 10 days with no major national polls in the field. Rasmussen broke the dry spell and the read is simple: Thanksgiving was very, very good to Newt Gingrich.

Cain on the roller coaster

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  November 4th at 12:00 PM  | 

It always pleases me when two polls taken close together have very similar results. Even if they make out to be wrong some speculation of mine. So yes, it’s looking like Herman Cain isn’t exactly being helped this week. And if the new Rasmussen poll is genuinely showing a trend from the previous national poll, then he needs this story done as soon as possible. | Read More »

Little did we know how well Herman Cain was doing last week

By: Neil Stevens (Diary)  |  October 17th at 12:00 PM  | 

Before the cold that really took me down since Friday (to explain my silence since), we checked in on the pre-debate polling for Herman Cain’s first debate as a major contender. It turns out that Cain’s momentum had taken him even further ahead of the Tuesday debate, though post-debate polling suggests he took at hit in the national audience.