The UMass tracking poll of New Hampshire is bad news for Donald Trump
So we now have two tracking polls in New Hampshire. ARG is also running a tracker (one that adores John Kasich, for some reason), but today I’m going to draw our attention back to the UMass tracker. It’s showing movement for the second tier of candidates that’s different from before. Different in a way that’s bad news for Donald Trump.
The ABC/IJR debate lineup for Saturday.
ABC News will have seven people on the debate stage Saturday. They should have, really, only five.
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New Hampshire Tracking poll: Guess who fell today?
Since the Harper poll of New Hampshire is pretty bad (landline only, “The fav/unfav numbers are so absurd it has to be a transcription error – Jay Cost, “That poll looks weird” – Harry Enten), we’ve still only got the UMass tracking poll to work with. And in the tracking poll, one candidate is even, one is down, and one is up.
New Hampshire Momentum: Marco Rubio gaining fast
UMass and 7News have started a New Hampshire tracking poll. That’s nice because it gives us daily feedback on the race, letting us catch sharp changes in the polling. That’s where Marco Rubio comes in. He may not have won Iowa, but for his campaign it was as good as a win.
My take: Iowa Winners and losers
So according to the Decision Desk, the candidates who won the Iowa caucuses were Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz. But who really won and lost tonight?
, bernie sanders
, Donald Trump
, Fox News
, Hillary Clinton
, Jeb Bush
, Marco Rubio
, Megyn kelly
, Right to Rise PAC
, Ted Cruz
Must See: Donald Trump’s character distilled in one photo
Donald Trump told ABC of his daughter “I don’t think Ivanka would do that [pose nude], although she does have a very nice figure. I’ve said if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her.” That joke is bad enough, but wait until you see this photo of the pair together.
This is one poll result Donald Trump isn’t going to crow about
Pew Research did a poll about the 2016 Presidential candidates, but they didn’t look to see who’s winning or losing. They asked opinions about the candidates and religion, and the results are not looking good for Donald Trump as the Iowa caucuses approach.
What happens when you make an ad full of Donald Trump’s own words?
What you get when you use Donald Trump’s own words against him, is a devastating new attack ad, of course. This one’s in Iowa, in the final days before the caucuses. I’m very interested to see if this one leaves a mark. If Trump underperforms, thank Ted Cruz.
Myth BusTED: Ted Cruz actually isn’t falling in Iowa
The results of a political poll are deep and complex. We tend to boil them down very simply though, because most of the time we’re polling two-way, winner-take-all elections. Those races are generally zero-sum games between the candidates. The Iowa Caucuses however are as far from a two-way winner-take-all election as you can get. They’re a multi-way contest with proportional results. So the usual heuristics | Read More »
17 days away from Iowa: Can Rubio or Cruz stump Trump?
We’re 17 days from the Iowa caucuses. As Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio look to stump Donald Trump, who currently holds a very slim lead in Iowa and a 15 point margin in the national polling average, let’s compare how Trump stands, with previous frontrunners this far out. Can Trump be beaten this late in the game?
Iowa polling: Is Ted Cruz holding up against Donald Trump?
It’s amazing to me how little polling there actually is of Iowa right now. We’re about two weeks away from the caucuses, but according to Real Clear Politics as of this writing, there have only been six polls this year. So when we’re ‘ooh’ing and ‘ahh’ing at the rough-and-tumble between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, we don’t actually have very many data points to look | Read More »
House GOP one-ups Obama’s SOTU on criminal justice reform
President Barack Obama used his State of the Union message to push a forward-looking agenda, as is the style these days. One element was to reduce sentences on crimes he doesn’t think are all that serious. The House GOP is going a step further, and interestingly enough, Obama is opposing it. I guess he only wants show reform, not real reform.
Myth BUSTED: Steve Hoffman shows Ted Cruz can win by expanding the base
I’m old enough to remember the hand wringing. The GOP must reach out to libertarians, they said. Young people are too libertarian for the GOP, was the claim. When we at RedState banned Ron Paul supporters, we were told we were part of the problem, keeping the GOP from ever winning again, because Paul was reaching an ‘untapped strain’ of voter. Well, here we are | Read More »
Trump is so scared of losing Iowa to Cruz, he’s wetting his pants
Donald Trump was on Face the Nation, and had an epic tantrum. Right now he’s so scared of losing to Ted Cruz, he’s having to lash out in ridiculous ways. It’s interesting seeing what Trump looks like when he’s behind, he knows he’s behind, and he’s wetting-his-pants scared of being the big, fat loser.
2015 has been a Record Year for Federal Regulations
The soon-to-be finished year of 2015 has been one full of milestones and records, but this one is certainly not worth celebrating. The Obama administration has been busier than even rolling out new regulations. The 2015 Federal Register has amounted to 81,611 pages of new and proposed ones, more than the federal government has ever before issued in a single year. Per The Hill: This | Read More »
Tags: Administrative Procedure Act
, Congressional Review Act
, Federal Register
, guidance documents
, House of Representatives
, imperial presidency
, Obama Administration
, reins act
, Resolutions of Disapproval