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Iowa Aftermath: Good Night for Romney and Santorum, Bad Night for Perry and Bachmann

By: Brad Jackson (Diary)  |  January 4th, 2012 at 10:06 AM  | 

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On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Matt Lewis to discuss last night’s vote in Iowa, the potential departure of Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann, and how the race looks now with New Hampshire and South Carolina next on the primary calendar.

We’re brought to you as always by BigGovernment and Stephen Clouse and Associates. If you’d like to email us, you can do so at coffee[at]newledger.com. We hope you enjoy the show.

Related Links:

Mitt Romney celebrates GOP win; 2 rivals flounder
Quitters: Why a conservative exodus is bad for Romney
To fend off Iowa attacks, historian Newt Gingrich turns to ‘passive resistance’
Matt Lewis at the Daily Caller
Matt K Lewis.com

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  • tngal

    The guy has been working Iowa for 8 years. He’s had operatives there for almost a decade. He did worse this year there than he did 4 years ago. He has had 8 years to shmooze and suck up to every person in Iowa of voting age three times over. Millions upon millions of dollars of his own and donor money spent, and all he has to show for it is 75 percent of the people don’t like him enough to vote for him. Even though he didn’t “personally” campaign much there this time out he should have done better that eight votes above the next candidate, which in most races equates to a recount since accidents happen. Not saying Santorum has my vote. Just saying Romney should have pulled better numbers given his time, ground game and financial resources.

    If I were Mittens I wouldn’t start cheering “We’re Number One” just yet.

    • Flagstaff

      Perry. Bachmann is gone. He hasn’t been nasty to anyone. Nobody exects him to win in NH. SC lies ahead. Santorum has lots of time to be exposed as… What?

      The wonderful “acceptance” speech Santorum delivered last night was pretty weak, in my opinion as one who is not in his camp yet. After reading the reviews and before watching the speech, I expected better.

      I suppose Perry didn’t spend all his money in Iowa, which is another plus for him.

  • seanl

    two of the conservative candidates dropped out. The field is winnowing too fast for Romney. And the two conservatives that are left (Santorum and Newt) are friends with each other.

    Secondly, Newt’s speech left the impression that he is on a kamikaze mission to destroy Mitt. Mitt has had it pretty easy so far in terms of criticism. That won’t be the case anymore.

    Romney may have barely eked out a technical victory, but in reality the resulting field doesn’t look so good for him.

    • Paul_Zummo

      Assuming it’s down to Santorum, Newt, and Romney (and, for the record, I hope that nobody drops out because I think it’s high time we stopped allowing Iowa to have such an enormous influence on the process), then Romney is really in for a world of hurt, especially when you say:

      Newt?s speech left the impression that he is on a kamikaze mission to destroy Mitt.

      We could see a similar dynamic as last time, with Huckabee and Romney essentially taking each other out and letting McCain kind of skating by.

      This is also why it’s not really a victory for Romney. As you said, a winnowing of the field this early is not good news for him at all.

    • parkfairfax

      It was a good enough night when two of your biggest opponents from the past 2 months underperform (Gingrich, Perry), 2 rivals drop out (Perry, Bachmann) and you win in a state in which you barely campaigned in until the final month.

      It was a great night for Santorum. However, Romney was not realistically expected to win Iowa. It was Bachmann, then Perry, then Paul, all of whom spent more time in the state. The fact that it took Santorum living in Iowa to tie Romney is a good enough night. Santorum has no change in Massachusetts … New Hampshire … and little to no national organization. If Santorum is the best that the anti-Romney crowd can muster, Romney will waltz to the nomination.

      If you are just running out the clock as Romney has been doing for 3 months, then this is the best possible result. The real national contenders underperformed and the one contender is someone who has little/no national recognition. This very quickly becomes a national campaign with no time or room for the retail politics that made Santorum’s success. His strategy is not scalable, his organization non-existent and the calendar does not help him.

      Gingrich, Perry or even Bachmann could have given Romney a run for his money. Having them finish behind the two impossible candidates (Paul, Santorum) is a victory.

      Mitt Romney – Good Enough to Not Lose.

      • seanl

        they were Santorum/Gingrich opponents. Romney needed the conservative vote to split. It would take some especially convoluted logic to come to the conclusion that Perry and Bachman dropping out is anything but bad news for the Romney campaign.

        And now it seems Santorum and Newt are a de facto team, with Newt as the attack dog.

        This is an empty victory for Romney.

        • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

          and see what happen to him under fire in the debates.

        • parkfairfax

          It if were so empty, Romney’s poll numbers wouldn’t have shot up in South Carolina. Because he is expected to win MA handily, he can now claim winning a state he was not supposed to win, then handily won a state he lost in 2008. If he wins SC, it’s all over.

          Had Romney lost SC – ideally by coming in 3rd to Santorum and Paul, then there is no way his numbers shoot up in SC and his numbers in MA start to fall quickly. He’d probably still hold on in MA, but they next President would have been decided in SC. Now, the narrative is “stronger than expected in IA, double-digit victory in MA – he’s in control” and people want to be on the side of a winner for choice appointments, money, etc. The establishment does not want a drawn our primary and they will not have one unless Romney underperforms in MA or has his momentum reversed in SC.

          I don’t like it one bit, but he’s been running a safe, “good enough” campaign despite not showing a single redeeming quality. McCain was conservative on spending and military, for all the grief he got on this board. Bush was conservative on the military. Romney would be the most liberal nominee since Clinton. Sigh.

  • renl57

    will vote for Obama by a wide margin, if either Gingrich or Santorum is the GOP nominee.

    Independent women won’t abide Gingrich’s serial adultery.

    And they won’t abide Santorum’s hard line on abortion either. (No exceptions even for rape or incest)

    Santorum can’t appeal to voters who aren’t as deeply religious as he is.

    • http://www.nighttwister.com NightTwister

      You assume that which you must prove. Independent women still hold Bill Clinton in high regard, in spite of his affairs. I see no reason why Newt would be any different, especially since it was so long ago. Newt has also been open, honest, and contrite about it.

  • txpat

    He twitted it 34 min ago. He is going to South Carolina.
    Yeah!!!!

    • runner12

      With Bachman out, Perry may still have a slim chance to make a comeback!

  • http://www.timothy-bladel.com/ center77

    and I’m glad he is not out, he still is the guy who has the best record.

  • Massachusetts_Transplant

    agree mostly with Parkfairfax above. It was a good night for Mitt Romney because the two most credible challengers – Gingrich and Perry – finished 4th and 5th respectively. Had the Perry momentum (that was covered so heavily as more of a wishful self-fulfilling prophecy on these pages) materialized and he finished Top 3 – then that would have been the news coming out of Iowa, “Perry’s Comeback”. In fact – his going to South Carolina in many ways helps Romney, as assuming Santorum gets a bump coming out of Iowa – the not-Romney vote will continue to be split between Perry, Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul in South Carolina, and thus the winner won’t have a big margin. Then its on to:

    Florida (Jan 31st) – where Romney has the organization and money to win.

    Nevada (Feb 4th), where Romney wins easily and then the Maine Caucus, which again, I am assuming the Romney campaign is the only one to.

    Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota Caucuses (based on organization, money, and having the one campaign that probably planned for these – Romney probably wins all three easily).

    And then its the Arizona and Michigan Primaries – two states where Romney will obviously be favored.

    Super Tuesday isn’t until March 6th – so its very likely that Romney will have dominated the entire month of February leading up to Super Tuesday.

    So in the absence of an unexpected big win by someone in South Carolina – Romney likely has it in the bag. That is why Perry going on to SC is good for Mitt, as if Santorum, Perry, and Gingrich all get around the same percentage of the voter, they’ll all continue on a little longer – so even a 4th place finish for Mitt in SC isn’t neccessarily a bad thing, so long as the field is bunched.

    Lastly – one unrelated point here, it is often assumed that the 75% of the voters that didn’t vote for Mitt will simply coalesce around the “one true conservative” left. But that is not what will happen in reality – as voters that liked Newt’s debating ability will gravitate to Romney, or liked Perry’s executive experience will gravitate to Romney, or liked that Santorum was Catholic and from the North will gravitate to Romney etc.

  • tonotisto

    http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/iowa-ethanol-industry-celebrates-romney-santorum/291411

    Perry and Bachmann did not sign on to Ethanol, hmmmmm……

  • http://www.neoavatara.com/blog neoavatara

    Officially…http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/bachmann-ends-presidential-run-source-20120104

  • nepanyrush

    With Perry suspending his campaign, Santorum stands as the most consistent conservative in the race. He is articulate and has twice won statewide election in a state with a significant Democratic Party majority. The criticisms of Santorum are relatively minor compared with the baggage that others carry.

    1. He supported Specter over Toomey in a primary race. Specter was the sitting GOP Senator in a race that could determine control of the Senate. Specter had supported Santorum. As far as politics, having the junior GOP senator supporting the longterm GOP senator is not big enough to derail his candidacy.

    2. He lost his last election by 17%. Santorum ran against a popular, “prolife” son of a popular, prolife, Democratic governor. Casey is a popular name in Pennsylvania. Santorum also wanted a minor change (seemingly minor now) in social security — to raise the retirement age by 2 years. He got demagogued as trying to destroy social security, and the huge senior population in Pennsylvania went to Casey. Santorum would have the prolife mantle alone in the fight against Obama.

    Santorum would be a great candidate. Time to support him.

  • JSobieski

    What it is time for is SC to either serve as a useful firewall OR convince people that Romney is inevitable.

    That is the job of SC.

  • pj2012

    and he shouldn’t. Bachmann’s out and Newt is about to go Newtlear on Romney.

  • seanl

    that is political speak for: I’m done.

  • JSobieski

    pet the dog once or twice, and come out fighting.