1) on initial claims. remember that the first week in the year is typically the largest non-adjusted number for the year and thus the SA plays a big role in the number (also note that this year’s non-adjusted number was the best for a first week since 08).

2) if the participation rate stays down around 64%, then it won’t take that many jobs to lower the U-3 unemployment rate (maybe something like 150k/month)

3) while I am also not sure that housing has bottomed, it is likely very close. Also, if we see continued demand for multi-family, that will get consturction workers back just as much as single family will.