I’m predicting it really hits in December, as either the smoke and mirrors holding things up will go away with obama or he’ll be out and won’t care what happens.

Looks like Achuthan, who predicts recessions with his infamous ECRI agrees.

“Q: Is the beginning of a consumption slowdown apparent?

A: Let?s go to those key, hard facts. GDP growth, year-over-year, peaked in the third quarter of 2010 at 3.5%. By the second quarter of 2011, it had fallen to 1.5% and it?s basically flat-lined from there. It has not reaccelerated. It?s a similar pattern for personal income growth and it?s a similar pattern for the broad measures of sales growth. As of January, when you look at industrial production growth, year-over-year, it has now declined to a 22-month low. Taking all of these key aggregate measures of output, jobs, income, and sales, putting it into our Coincident Index, the growth rate has now dropped to a 21-month low. The economy is weaker today than it has been in 21 months.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/art-cashin-why-economy-weaker-it-has-been-21-months