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Admin. Estimated 23,000 Jobs Lost to Moratorium

The Obama Administration has filed some 27,000 pages of documents in Federal court which disclose the process by which it decided to forge ahead with a deepwater drilling moratorium in the Gulf of Mexico, in spite of expert advice, public opinion and a Federal judge’s ruling.

The documents also show that the Administration stonewalled a U.S. Senator’s request for information, a point apparently lost on the mainstream press. They show that the bureaucracy contemplated a de facto moratorium: since the bureaucracy has the power of the permit, who needs a moratorium? And they also show that ignorance (willful or otherwise) caused them to grossly misrepresent the economic impact of the moratorium to the court.

As reported by the Wall Street Journal, the Administration forged ahead with plans to stop all drilling in water depths over 500 feet until November 30, even though its own estimates showed the ban would cost some 23,000 jobs.

[The documents] show the new top regulator or offshore oil exploration, Michael Bromwich, told Interior Secretary Ken Salazar that a six-month deepwater-drilling halt would result in “lost direct employment” affecting approximately 9,450 workers and “lost jobs from indirect and induced effects” affecting about 13,797 more. The July 10 memo cited an analysis by Mr. Bromwich’s agency that assumed direct employment on affected rigs would “resume normally once the rigs resume operations.” [emphasis added]

Hmm. July 10. That’s very interesting, because on July 28, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), chair of the Senate Small Business Committee, included the following remarks in her opening statement at the Committee’s hearing on the spill’s impact on business:

I note for the Record that on July 21, 2010, I invited Dr. Christina Romer, Chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers to testify before this committee to provide the Administration’s perspective and its own economic analysis in support of the moratorium. Unfortunately, the Administration was unwilling to provide a witness for today’s hearing. Yesterday, I spoke to Dr. Romer personally and she indicated the Administration does not currently have the economic impact data, which is very disappointing to learn. It is my understanding that such a review has been initiated, however, which is encouraging.

Sen. Landrieu had received no data on economic impact as of July 28, nearly three weeks after Mr. Bromwich’s memo to Sec. Salazar, which contained the figures the Senator was searching for.

There’s also no basis for the Agency’s assumption that employment levels will return to pre-moratorium levels any time in the foreseeable future. These deepwater rigs are mobile; given the choice between $0 per day to sit idle in the Gulf or whether to pursue overseas contracts for $500,000, which would you choose? And they will not move without a four to five year work commitment. Once the big rigs leave, they’re gone for good.

Then there’s the case of the Non-Moratorium Moratorium, the near-total cessation of shallow water drilling permits, despite the President’s and the Secretary’s insistence that the deepwater moratorium is the only one currently in place.

In another document, William Hauser, chief of the regulations and standards branch of what was formerly called the Minerals Management Service, outlined the risks of various drilling activities in an email to colleagues and then wrote: “The more I write this stuff the more I believe we can/should/could regulate/stop activities through a prudent management process versus a moratoria scheme.”

He added, “I guess the moratoria approach is necessary because the MMS cannot be trusted to regulate.”

Here’s the third whopper:

The administration has said in court filings that the economic effect of suspended drilling wasn’t as severe as the industry asserted. In a filing with federal court in eastern Louisiana June 23, the day after a judge overturned the initial six-month halt, Justice Department attorneys said it affected 33 deepwater wells, “less than 1% of the existing structures in the Gulf dedicated to oil exploration and production.”

I’ve heard this blather before, out of the mouth of Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA). So the twisted thinking goes, “What’s 33 rigs, out of 3,800 platforms in the Gulf?”

It’s shocking that we entrust regulation to people with so little knowledge and so little interest in the things they regulate.

Yes, rigs and platforms are both “offshore structures”, in the sense that jetliners and bicycles are both “modes of transportation”. They have grossly different jobs.

“Rigs” drill wells. That’s the activity where money is spent in big chunks, so lots of jobs are dependent on rigs. One big deepwater rig accounts for 1,200 or so jobs, between direct labor, transportation and shore-based support. That’s before you factor in the impact of all those salaries on the local merchants and governments.

“Platforms” are structures for accessing producing wells. Some hold a dozen or more wells and contain processing equipment, but there are many, many platforms in the shallow Gulf that only support a single well.

Rigs are the economic driver that make the industry work, that makes the oil-based economies of the Gulf States work.

Throughout this extended nightmare, I’ve wondered whether we have a) an Administration that’s truly naive and ignorant of the impact of their policies on our region, or b) an Administration that fully intends for their actions to kill domestic jobs, irreparably damaging an industry and a region.

Their own evidence now points to b).

Cross-posted to VladEnBlog.

COMMENTS

  • http://theminorityreportblog.com Repair_Man_Jack

    What are you wing-nuts gripping about? (sarcasm off)

  • reddog53

    27,000 pages of document??!! That’s roughly 270 pages per day of the crisis, or about half a John Grisham novel’s worth of prevarication and indecision.

    What else could we expect from a group that wrote a 2,300 page health care bill.

  • Common_Cents
  • texasgalt

    Drill baby drill, in the deep water off Brazil.

  • ss396

    It’s both: it’s an (a) ignorant, naive, clueless administration so intent upon its liberal agenda that (b) it will kill jobs in pursuit of its “higher purpose.”

    I suspect that the loss of rigs from the Gulf is not greater only because there are significant sunk costs in the wells that they were planning. If there’s a good chance to proceed, before the delay and standby charges overshadow those costs, they’ll stick around. But eventually the drilling companies will write off those expenses and move on to something productive. This is a time bomb waiting to explode – the Gulf economy isn’t out of the woods yet.

    • http://vladenblog.tumblr.com Vladimir

      …it’s not the drilling contractors who have the sunk costs. It’s the operating companies who contracted with them to drill wells.

      The only impediment to them moving their rigs is the time/cost to move them. It takes weeks to move one of these rigs to Brazil, or Angola, or Egypt.

      You have the same impediment to getting them back, once they’re gone.

      • ss396

        The rigs might (and do!) want to move on, but it is the operating companies who have final say on when and if to release the rigs. Hanging onto a rig at standby charges can be cheap compared to the potential well revenues.

        I would expect that the drilling rig contracts have a clause allowing them to cancel the contract if they are put on standby for, say, six months. That’s fairly usual. But until then, they have to hang around. The bigger problem will be manning the rig when/if it’s called back to work. The rig hands want to work, and are not happy to sit around the house all day waiting for the phone call. Even if they are on standby wages they’re not getting the offshore uplifts. The rig might not be able to move, but the hands can.

        • The_Gadfly

          I think Vlad has The Big 0′s motivation closer to correct than you do. I think it is intentional. I think he regards losing 40,000 jobs in the gulf region to stop evil oil companies is a small price to pay. If the operating companies outlook about The Big 0 is the same as me or Vlad, there’s no point in incurring even more losses trying to get the planned well drilled no matter how much sunk money is there. This administration has repeatedly shown its true colors to the American people: lying about Obamacare, intentionally fumbling the Black Panther prosecution, lying about racism with Beergate, and lying about not taxing people making less than $250,000/year. I’m not an insightful wheeler and dealer like the people making the decisions about where to put those rigs. If I can see it, so can they.

  • http://pocketchangeproductions.net/ anotherindyfilmguy

    is this 27k reasons for impeachment yet?
    Just wondering if that’s the magic number needed or if it will take a lame duck session with lots of non-returning angry dems to do it…

  • Scope

    with their lawsuit concerning the moratorium . The wording mirrors that of Judge Feldman in the LA lawsuit decision-unjustified, arbitrary and capricious. I believe they are also arguing that the feds were law bound to work in conjunction with coastal states before pulling the fast one that they did. I understand that Judge Feldman still has a case before him to decide, as to the new moratorium. I doubt there is any guessing required on how that will be decided.

    Back in May, the Obama administration canceled any future plans for Virginia to sell offshore leases due to take place in 2012. Drilling for oil and gas has been on the table in Virginia for several years. Shortly before former Democrat Governor Tim Kaine left office, he wrote to the Obama admin., and requested that any future lease sales be delayed. As soon as our new Republican Gov. McDonnell took office, he wrote asking for the lease sales to go on as was scheduled.

    Before the Obama admin. decided to cancel any plans for the Virginia lease sale, Virginia Democrat Rep. Jim Moran wrote a letter to the Governor asking him to backoff on his push for offshore drilling. A lease of roughly 4,500 square miles, about 50 miles offshore, had been slated for 2012. Governor McDonnell pushed the drilling lease as a major part of his campaign, and talked of the jobs that would be created, and the revenues the state would earn from the lease(s). Rep. Moran cited a Pentagon report, which claimed that there was too much military activity in the lease area, and that it would significantly affect military operations there. I don’t think that Jim Moran is looking so well in his quest to remain an incumbent.

    In early August, the Pentagon announced it’s plans to close down the Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, and training would no longer be taking place in that location.

    So, Obama cancels the VA lease sale, the pentagon says that drilling in the proposed location would significantly interfer with military operations in Norfolk, and less than 3 months later, the military facility is slated for closure by the Pentagon. I’ll go with choice A and B, and add another thought, whatever means it takes to destroy the oil industry, jobs, and the nation will justify the end goal.

  • http://www.800cart.com Ron Robinson

    do rigs employ more people than platforms? Are any platforms unmanned (automated)?

    I see where you say above that rigs can employ up to 1200 people – what’s the range of emplyed for a ‘platform’?

    • GreyCloak

      There may be well over 100 people on an active drilling ring, multiplied by requirements for 3 shifts/day and rotating folks to cover things like 3-months on and 1-month off (typical in the North Sea, for instance).

      Others directly employed are the helicopter companies that shuffle workers on- and off- shore, the boats that deliver supplies, the tanker crews that haul produced oil until pipelines are connected, and the folks that lay the pipes.

      Drilling rigs ARE platforms … but once drilling is complete, many fewer workers are needed. A platform may or may not be left on site … well-heads can be connected to gathering systems and consolidated.

      Economic multipliers increase the number of people affected by the Obama Unemployment Program; about five people are hurt by every high-paying off-shore drilling/operating job lost: oil workers buy cars, buy homes, buy snacks at the local 7-11.

      I’ve also seen the rigs stacked up, under repair, or all out to sea in places like Port Arthur, Texas. When they leave the Gulf, they’ll be dry-docked in Nigeria or elsewhere: American boat-yard jobs are also lost.

  • http://www.thehayride.com MacAoidh

    I was going to write something about this last night, but I was too pissed off to do it.

    I still am.

    Thanks for the well-researched and well-argued piece.

    Revolutions have begun over less than this. OUR revolution started over less.

  • mosander

    How does one write 27,000 pages of legal brief without at least 100 lawyers, the ACLU and the UN help? I am assuming that there is a huge bank of law clerks at work with this. A writer producing a novel couldn’t generate that much volume in two months. Defund the czars. The BHO won’t have time for all these vacations. And why hasn’t anyone posted about his “live in friend” Regie Love? Originally, I thought BO was a muslim from his actions, but this (regie) would be a sin, so I guess he has annointed himself as the “second coming” and none other is before him. Extreme arrogance.

  • talgus

    He just needs to KILL the oil industry. He wants that $10.00 gal gas at a station near you ASAP.

  • tex41lb

    Loading a case with 27000 pages of junk information is one way to slow a lawsuit to a crawl. Omama wins if suit is delayed. Anything stopping a judge having balls to cite contempt of court in this situation?

  • onehutu

    I recalled this story when I read today an article about how many jobs have actually been lost. It is interesting that while the Administration predicted 23k, to date the unemployment claims have been “…in the hundreds…”. Now why would they estimate such high job losses (when they haven’t materialized) and are the actual losses really only in the hundreds?

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