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Obama: ‘Drill Drill Drill won’t work. And you can thank Me that it did.’

'Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?'

Irony alert. (HuffPo link. Sorry.)

Anybody who tells you that we can just drill our way out of this problem does not know what they’re talking about, or they’re not telling you the truth — one or the other,” Obama said at an event held in New Hampshire to tout his energy policies.

He noted that, in fact, oil production in the United States has hit its highest level in eight years, that more rigs are operating in the U.S. than in the rest of the world combined, that more than 400 drilling permits have been granted since the massive BP oil spill, and that for the first time in 13 years, oil imports account for less than half of all U.S. oil consumption.  [Emphasis added.]

President Obama’s statement denies that drilling can increase production, while taking credit for the fact that it did.

It would seem to me that there’s a connection, a correlation, perhaps even a causal relationship, between the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. and the increased production of domestic oil.

Perhaps if we did something to encourage more wells to be drilled, the result would be even more domestic oil. More oil in the world marketplace would put downward pressure on oil prices. And we’d be even less dependent on some foreign despot for oil.

That makes me say “Yes We Can!” drill our way out of this.

But hey, according to the President, I’m either dumb or a liar. Maybe both.

As Mark J. Perry has ably demonstrated at his brilliant Carpe Diem blog, not only have rig counts increased in recent years (from 700 to 1,000 to about 2,000 today), but the proportion of those rigs targeting oil vs. gas has shifted dramatically, from a historic average of 20% to about 60%.

Image

That means that rigs nominally targeting oil have increased from ~150-200 to ~1,200 since 2009. This is a direct reflection of the collapse in natural gas prices since the shale boom and the continued strength in oil prices.

As much as Obama would like to take credit for the increase in oil production, I can’t think of a single Federal action or initiative to credit for this shift. This is organic, driven by the reality of prices and economics. It is mostly happening on private leases, under the jurisdiction (and regulation) of the states. 

By the Administration’s own numbers, offshore oil production lags the pre-Macondo forecast by several hundred thousand barrels per day. They can count plans and permits approved till the cows come home, but the fact is the permitting  process has slowed markedly. By the latest count I can recall, eleven deepwater drilling rigs had left the Gulf of Mexico for steadier work overseas.

But I’m either stupid or a liar. Or both. But I repeat myself.

Cross-posted at stevemaley.com.


COMMENTS

  • http://www.skiloveland.com skicougar

    From here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/president-obamas-lies-regarding-us.html

    Oil imports actually went up, but people stop taking so many trips, cut down their errands or consolidated them and generally just sat around the house.

    ” foreign petroleum usage in his administration went from 37% to a peak of 41% last year, currently at 39.9%”

    There’s a great chart showing foreign oil imports went down under Bush while the economy was still on a roll, but went up under obama: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/president-obamas-lies-regarding-us.html

    • Joshua Persons

      I don’t see how a decline in gasoline consumption and an increase in oil imports explains an increase in domestic oil drilling. Can you connect the dots?

  • lushboi

    The President stated that we can’t drill our way out of our energy problem. Even with the highest domestic oil production in eight years, prices are up. Meaning his statement is correct.

    • http://www.plumbbobblog.com Plumb_Bob

      How can what we are experiencing at this moment prove ANYTHING about what might be possible under different policies?

      In actual fact, the President’s statement makes no sense as stated. What does he mean, “our “energy problem?” Which problem is he addressing?

      Is he addressing the fact that we import a great deal of oil? Then let me state the obvious; every drop of oil we drill here in the US is a drop we do not have to import from elsewhere. The question is not whether we can displace ALL the imported oil (I’ll address that in a minute) but rather, whether we can successfully displace ANY of it.

      It’s obvious on the face of things that we can. So what sort of nonsense bases a policy that says “We’re going to squeeze oil producers out of business as much as we can” on an argument that says “Producing oil, by itself, is not the complete solution?” Sounds to me like the President is throwing up a Red Herring.

      It’s actually the case that the US has several times more oil in formations in the Rocky Mountains than the Saudis have in their entire oil field. Plus, we have an enormous amount of oil that can be produced on the mainland, offshore, and on the North Slope, if the government will just lease the land to private developers. The US could conceivably become a net exporter of oil over the next 20 years with the right development policy.

      • lushboi

        “It?s actually the case that the US has several times more oil in formations in the Rocky Mountains than the Saudis have in their entire oil field.”

        Fact check: http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/bakken.asp

        • http://www.plumbbobblog.com Plumb_Bob

          Sure, if I had been talking about the Bakken, that would be an exaggeration. However…

          The Green River shale in Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah contain somewhere between 1.2 trillion and 2 trillion barrels of oil, the high end estimate of which is almost twice the known reserves of the top 12 oil producers in the world.

          At least two oil companies have pilot projects on the Piceance Basin shale, the largest single field in the Green River field, that are retrieving light, sweet crude ready for the refinery from the shale without moving the rock, at a cost of around $25/bbl.

          The only thing holding the US back from essentially tripling the world’s known reserves of oil are (1) finishing the pilot projects to ensure that the freeze walls around the shale prevent ground water contamination (it’s a stable technology that’s been in use in construction for years), and (2) the Obama administration’s unwillingness to lease federal land to develop oil resources.

          Next time, at least ask what I’m talking about before you assume that you know what I know, and that it’s wrong. You pissed me off, and you made an ass of yourself.

          • citizenkh

            the API gravity and of course chemical makeup of each type of crude and what products each refinery has positioned itself to produce.

            Kerogen would be great for simple hydroskimming refineries to produce gases, gasoline, kerosine, diesel and No. 6 fuel oil, but not so great for petroleum coke and other heavy products. Keystone XL is needed if we want to kick Venezuela to the curb. Also, Venezuela has declined 35% in production since the general strike by engineers and supervision in 2002/2003. Heavy crude is needed for some refineries.

    • funwithknives

      Oil is a valued commodity.{DUU-UHH!} It has Real Worth. It is priced in dollar amounts and our money is inflated, have no doubt .So logically, it takes more dollars to buy the same amount, as the real value of your purchase medium IS LESS.
      Call it confidence in our system , personified.So economic policies do indeed affect needed commodities prices, in short,and you see it at the pump.
      And Barry can own THAT ONE, fer’ sure. {that’s fer’ DANG SURE}

      Query: Why is the stock market so high? Are so many corporations intrinsically worth more ? Hardly. Socked away money is seeking to multiply and beat inflation, if only by a fraction.Can’t leave it in a bank(You get charged for large amounts, as they have to pay for Fed.Deposit Insurance, and the interest is too low to get that job done.) or put it into T-bills, as you lose, monetarily.

      Want to see some fun? Wait ’till spending increases and all the socked away dollars start circulating. Carter 2.0, comin’ up!

      • lushboi

        Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices
        Year Price
        1958 $2.35
        1968 $2.21
        1978 $2.26
        1988 $1.84
        1998 $1.41
        2008 $3.39
        2011 $3.48

        http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/gasoline_inflation.asp

        Conclusion, even taking inflation into account, increased domestic production has not put a dent in the rise of gasoline prices.

        • http://stevemaley.com Steve Maley

          He’s talking about erosion of the value of a dollar (the currency in which oil is valued) vs other world currencies.

          Oil can’t do anything about that, except indirectly.

          Increased domestic oil drilling would help the balance of trade, though, and help the domestic job picture. And govt revenues.

          ALl in all, higher domestic production is a good thing and should be a strategic goal, independent of bringing gasoline prices down.

        • renl57

          This may come as a surprise to you, but the world is using much more oil in 2011 than it used in 1958.

          Since 1958, we’ve seen the creation of several new economic powers: The European Union, China, India. The latter two are industrializing rapidly and making increasing use of fossil fuels. And that bids up the price. That was happening while you were focused only on supply and price, ignoring the demand side of the equation.

          So unless the supply of fossil fuels rises sharply, we can expect further oil price rises and gasoline price rises in the future as the Chinese (who outnumber Americans by 4 to 1) start loving their cars and trucks too.

        • http://www.plumbbobblog.com Plumb_Bob

          Increased domestic production has not put a dent in the rise of gasoline prices… yet.

          That’s pretty surely because the federal government is cutting back on oil field leasing dramatically, and oil production on government-owned land is dropping like a stone in a pond. You can thank Obama for that. The increase in oil production is all on privately-held land, and while it’s been enough to offset the Obama cutbacks and still leave us with more production, it’s not enough to counteract the market tightening that comes from having the 800 pound gorilla as your arch-enemy.

          Watch what happens if a Republican wins the election in November. The price of crude oil will drop $20/bbl before he even takes office. And it will drop another $20/bbl on the day that the new President announces the release of restrictions on drilling offshore and on federal land.

          • retrocon87

            The arguments swirling around right now about what to do about gas prices seem to be “increase drilling” and “build Keystone.” Neither of these will bring down gas prices one iota. When oil companies hear people say “let them build pipelines so that prices will go down” they essentially just chuckle to themselves and think we’re idiots… the reason they want to build Keystone is because all the oil being extracted in Alberta and North Dakota right now is essentially just stuck there, which believe it or not is actually beneficial to American consumers… without a pipeline it is too expensive for them to transport it to the coasts where it could reach the global market, and the result is that they wind up having to sell it in the US at the discounted WTI price. Piping it down to the Gulf Coast just means they’ll be able to get it onto the global market and charge the higher Brent price which is the one that is vulnerable to Mideast price shocks (the differential between WTI and Brent is at about $17/brl right now). And this will not decrease prices because the result of increased North American supply on the global market will just be OPEC offsetting it with production cuts to keep the price up. The legitimate arguments for Keystone are that it would create jobs to build it, and that increased domestic oil company profits = economic growth… but it will not bring down prices. The only legitimate ways to actually get prices down at this point would be to:

            1) Increase drilling but don’t allow the construction of pipelines to the coasts, so that it becomes artificially too expensive for the oil companies to get the oil onto the global market and they wind up forced to sell it here at the cheaper WTI price (and in the long-term I don’t see how this will fly…)
            2) Deal with OPEC somehow so that increases in North American supply from “drill here, drill now” aren’t just offset with OPEC production cuts (and realistically I don’t really see how this will happen… every politician before an election panders about the need to be “tougher on OPEC” but at the end of the day the OPEC members are sovereign countries who can produce or not produce as much as they want and there isn’t exactly much we can do about this unless we want to start a trade war).
            3) Figure out how to produce additional oil at sufficient enough volume that adding it to global supply would begin to be too painful for OPEC to offset (they can always cut production to keep the price up but they can only do it up to a certain point because for most of these countries oil is so dominant an export for them that they can only cut production so much before it starts to be legitimately painful). Conventional oil reserves in the US are insufficient to provide this much volume. What is getting very interesting, though, is shale which we have immense amounts of but that until now have been too costly to extract.

            Conclusion– We have a ton of shale and also a ton of natural gas. The only serious ways to get prices down at this point are to figure out how to make shale extraction profitable and to figure out how to expand natural gas use. Obama’s idiotic “develop wind and solar but nothing else” approach will not do a damn thing, but neither will “Just Drill More” or “Build Keystone Now.”

          • citizenkh

            that different types of crude oil go to different refineries in for different desired products.

            Keystone XL certainly is to send some Bakken crude down but the vast majority being Canadian Syncrude which could be efficiently processed only by about a dozen refineries along the Gulf Coast in TX & LA. Presently, those refineries are importing Venezuela with a little PEMEX Mayan crude specifically because they can and such crude is priced lower than going benchmark prices and is a short haul (lower shipping cost) for ocean freight (tankers).

            The U.S. is by a wide margin both the largest petroleum coke producer and exporter in the world. Much of this is because a number of refineries began to build new units and reconfigure to import PEMEX Mayan and Venezuelan very heavy crudes back in the early 1980′s at the same time a viable market developed for sale (and good profit margins) of a product (petcoke) which had been little more than a nuisance after squeezing the last drop possible from a barrel of oil for gasoline production. Those refineries spent $ Billions in necessary capital investment to enable them to capitalize.

  • mikelindell2

    /

    • xymbaline

      and he’s the only one who will.

      As Rush has said many times, you don’t win any political battles on Defense.

      • mikelindell2

        Every other Republican is perpetually on defense either apologizing or shying away from issues. Newt takes the issue head on and frames it in a way that makes the left have to try and justify/explain their failed policies and philosophy. Good example is “food stamp president”-perfectly captures the failure of Obama and the despair he’s inflicted on country and makes him have to explain why a record 47 million people are now on them.

        • demsaresatanic

          Newt’s welfare reform message resonated very well for Republicans back when Newt was hitting that hard; most of us don’t appreciate having to pay for our cell phones and for democrat drones’ cell phones as well.

    • http://stevemaley.com Steve Maley

      I think he pulled that number out of a lower orifice.

      • mikelindell2

        Check it out. He says between $2 and $2.50 is the “stabilizing price for the amount of capital you need to produce gas in more complex fields”

  • http://pocketchangeproductions.net/ anotherindyfilmguy

    But it’s just a gut feeling…

    • jaydickb

      Romney can, maybe Newt can, but Santorum’s harsh rhetoric on social issues will be sooooooooooo easy for Obama to demagogue. No way he could beat Obama.

      For the sake of our country, Obama must be defeated. Romney offers the best chance, no matter what you think of him otherwise.

      • http://pocketchangeproductions.net/ anotherindyfilmguy

        Since the potato at least wouldn’t be Obama and has the potential to be at least somewhat useful even if only in a momentary culinary manner…

        • redmymind

          n/t

      • GregInFla

        that Santorum wants to affect their social lives, when Obama already has done so, with Obamacare. Gee, that’s an easy debate to win.

  • DerKrieger

    …in the same speech that all the opposition has done for 30 years is press for increased drilling yet he then went on to say that the future, he didn’t know when, was in alternatives like algae.

    So drilling is bad because it won’t immediately reduce prices, I disagree but…, but algae is the way forward even though it may never contribute to a drop in prices.

    The man is an idiot and an ideologue and thinks We the People are as ignorant as he.

    • demsaresatanic

      of ignorant people who care only about getting something for nothing and smart ones who care only about destroying America. Obama’s policies satisfy both.

  • DerKrieger

    …worked to reduce the price of natgas.

    • http://stevemaley.com Steve Maley

      The current price of nat gas is below its replacement cost.

  • jon11

    right.

    Obama doesn’t know whats going on.

    he’s just hanging out.

    Rejecting the keystone pipeline was possibly the dumbest thing he’s ever done politically. Now even Bill Clinton is out begging them go ahead with it.

    not a clue.

    and you’ve still got people saying he’s unbeatable.

    This guy is in worse shape than Carter

    • Flagstaff

      “Rejecting the keystone pipeline was possibly the dumbest thing he?s ever done politically.”

      At least I hope it isn’t the dumbest. I hope he comes up with even dumber ones in the next few months.

      But really, I see him playing it this way. First, it hasn’t hurt him yet. That is, his friends in the SCUM never question his false logic, so he gets away with claiming that it doesn’t matter, just as he has gotten away with all his other mistakes. Amazing how the claim that “it was worse than I expected” is used to exonerate him, after he had campaigned on the economy being “the worst in 40 years.” “Worse than I expected” is just code for “Waaaaah.. I can’t get the job done.”

      Second, economic fools like Bill O’Reilly tell everybody that the oil companies are “colluding to set high prices,” that they are creating a phony shortage by shipping gasoline overseas for higher profits, and thereby Obama has another scapegoat to blame higher prices on.

      Third, Obama may be playing both ends against the middle. He turns down the pipeline now, only to approve it, with a wink, nearer the election. He may believe, as I do, that just the expectation of a greater oil supply will drive down prices in the short run, giving him a short-run advantage just before the election. He can then change his mind AGAIN if he’s re-elected. And the SCUM will again ignore it or even support him.

      But I hope you’re right.

  • renl57

    …to estimate the effect of cap-and-trade (which he tried to get Congress to pass) on oil prices and gasoline prices.

  • romeg

    some daring reporter will have the opportunity to query Obama more closely on the plethora of domestic oil production initiatives that led to the dramatic increase in domestic production.

    Well, one can dream, can’t one?

  • dajeeps

    The reason is that I think there is something to the global oil market argument, that the more oil we pump here, the more the oil cartels will constrict production to keep the price from collapsing. We would have to be able to replace their output to have a serious impact on price. It would be a step in the right direction economically because what we pay for gasoline will stay here, more and more as time goes on, but I am not sure about whether it would have a huge impact on the price.

    If we convert existing gasoline vehicles to natural gas, they can run on either. And we already have the basic infrastructure in place because we can refuel with existing gas lines. Then we get the added bonus of not needing to disturb the food supply for ethanol. The only real hurdle to mass conversion is that the EPA has set the regulatory burden on conversion so high that it costs about $16k per vehicle to convert vs. $2-3k in other areas of the world.

    • Eyeofnewt

      Seattle told me that all taxis in that county (King County) now drive vehicles running on natural gas. Cool, huh? Seems like he said the buses there (many are electric) run on natural gas too. I think there is a glut in the world market right now on the natural gas that is bringing the cost down.

  • http://locomotivebreath1901.blogspot.com/ locomotivebreath1901

    President Food Stamp and his horde of Gaia worshiping sycophants always proclaim that drilling for more domestic oil to increase supplies won’t lower prices, yet releasing oil from strategic reserves to increase supplies during an election year will lower prices.

    Funny how that illogic works…

  • citizenkh

    your articles, but you never address the needs of refineries, or their products other than “energy”.

    Wet gas of certain shale plays as well as very light crude is excellent feedstock for petrochemicals (including olefins, ammonia and methanol).

    We have lost a significant amount of petrochemical manufacturing over the last 12 to 15 years, mainly due to natural gas prices being too high. 100% of our methanol industry was lost to overseas manufacturing during that time, and we now import 50% of our ammonia (the vast majority for fertilizer) with those two really being close to 100% due natural gas prices (feedstock and fuel). Olefins units (ethylene, propylene and acetylene) rely on two basic feedstocks, naphtha (from refineries) and NGL (natural gas liquids coming from wet gas). We already beat the pants off of every other country (except maybe Saudi Arabia) in cost per widget when it comes to petrochemicals (except when legal costs of regulations and ambulance chasers are considered) in basic petrochemicals.

    We are on the cusp of a manufacturing revival/dominance not even seen during the post WWII era, in spite of such an unfriendly administration.

    Drilling is not just about “energy” many more jobs are created by the manufacturing feedstock traveling downstream and multiplying than are created by drilling.

  • garfieldjl

    He has the WH rattled and he isn’t even the frontrunner, that should tell people something.

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