Jonathan Weisman and Matthew Wald write in The New York Times, “Since last year’s elections, Republicans in Congress have struggled for traction on their legislative efforts, torn between conservatives who drove the agenda after the 2010 landslide and new voices counseling a shift in course to reflect President Obama’s re-election and the 2012 loss of Republican seats in the House and the Senate.” Enter the | Read More »
Not two weeks ago, President Obama gave the first of three commencement addresses on his 2013 calendar—this one at The Ohio State University. “Unfortunately you’ve grown up hearing voices that incessantly warn of government as nothing more than some separate, sinister entity that’s at the root of all of our problems. Some of these same voices do their best to gum up the works. They’ll | Read More »
Tomorrow night (or more likely Wednesday morning), someone is going to look pretty bad. It might be the pollsters who have continually insisted on using a 2008 model for their polls. Or it will be pollsters like us and other analysts who have criticized the 2008 model as unrealistic and exaggerating Obama’s advantage. But, finally, we’ll get some real answers. So, to put ourselves out | Read More »
Sometimes it’s all about momentum and options, and right now Mitt Romney has both. It’s a week before Election Day and it seems that the map is expanding for Governor Romney, which means that it’s contracting for President Obama. In this Election Update I’ll look at the current map and some scenarios that it suggests. I’ll also give you some ideas about how to interpret | Read More »
Beyond speeches and platform votes, last week’s Republican Convention had an important purpose: to redirect the national conversation to problems voters face every day: fewer jobs, lower wages, rising energy costs, and the prospect that our children’s future is being sold away to pay for the present. The US National Debt clock was on prominent display, which has now approached a staggering $16 Trillion. According | Read More »
Impact of the Convention The Convention has created large numbers of positive impressions of Romney but this effect is being somewhat offset by highly negative information elsewhere Convention Watchers: 67% more favorable rating 33% less favorable Nightly news watchers: 28% more favorable rating 72% less favorable Favorite Speech A plurality of likely voters in key swing states who have been paying attention to the convention | Read More »
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment as we head toward Election Day,2012, every Friday WPA compiles the key numbers from the week and provides analysis of key trends. In addition to the key political numbers, this week’s analysis includes: A look Paul Ryan’s image boost after he became the Republican VP nominee. The Presidential | Read More »
In the aftermath of the horrific attack in Aurora, Colorado, those on the left have taken up their usual response to such tragedies-push for more restrictions on gun rights. They didn’t wait long, the following morning found a chorus of pundits and elected officials calling for more restrictive gun control. Public opinion suggests that these calls are unlikely to be effective. In the first poll | Read More »
Earlier this week, the Obama campaign released its map of battleground states. According to the campaign Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado are all toss-up territory. But the Obama campaign isn’t the only one with a hypothesis about the map. Over at the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog, Nate Silver has a simulation model that seems to suggest fewer states are in the “nearly | Read More »
To: WPA Research Clients and Friends From: Chris Wilson, Chris Perkins, Bryon Allen Subject: Positioning on Gay Marriage Date: May 14, 2012 Recently a Republican pollster released an analysis suggesting that Republicans should not only stop using gay marriage as a campaign issue, but went so far as to argue conservatives should change | Read More »
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