Tea Party Beats the Average in Competitive Races.


In the wake of last Tuesday’s election there has been much debate on the effect that the Tea Party label had on candidates for office.

Last week, MSNBC’s First Read came out with an analysis of Tea Party candidates showing they only managed to win 32% of their races. Unfortunately, the approach taken by MSNBC, by looking at all races without regard to the competitiveness of the district, has the potential to misrepresent the impact of attaching one’s candidacy to the Tea Party movement.

In order to get a better handle on the true impact of the Tea Party label it is useful to restrict our discussion to a list of Tea Party candidates in races that were considered competitive leading up to the election. The following analysis is based on the list of 138 Tea Party affiliated candidates from the New York Times. In the interest of leaving out sure winners and sure losers, races rated as “Solid Democrat” or “Solid Republican” were excluded from the analysis (67 solid ‘D’ races were dropped and 8 solid ‘R’). This leaves 30 races rated as “Leaning Democrat,” 23 races rated as “Tossup” and 10 races rated as “Leaning Republican”.

In order to get at the central question of whether Tea Partiers were underperforming what a “normal” Republican would have done in the district their performance, it is then useful to compare the performance of the Tea Partiers on the ballot with the Cook Partisan Voting Index of the district.

One final note, due to the uniqueness of what went on in Florida and Alaska they have been excluded from the analysis. The data in full:

State CookPVI Party Tea Party Candidate Win/Loss Open or Challenger Performance vs. PVI
Kentucky R+10 Republican Rand Paul W O 2
Colorado EVEN Democratic Ken Buck L C -1
Nevada D+1 Both Sharron Angle L C -4
Pennsylvania D+2 Democratic Pat Toomey W O 4
Wisconsin D+2 Democratic Ron Johnson W C 7
Delaware D+7 Democratic Christine O’Donnell L O -10
State

District

Cook PVI Party Tea Party Candidate Win/Loss Open or Challenger Performance vs. PVI
Arizona 7th D+6 Democratic Ruth McClung L C 2
Arizona 8th R+4 Democratic Jesse Kelly L C -6
Arizona 5th R+5 Democratic David Schweikert W C 5
Arizona 1st R+6 Democratic Paul Gosar W C 0
Arkansas 4th R+7 Democratic Beth Rankin L C -25
Arkansas 1st R+8 Democratic Rick Crawford W O -4
California 18th D+4 Democratic Michael Berryhill L C -12
California 11th R+1 Democratic David Harmer L C 0
Delaware At-large D+7 Republican Glen Urquhart L O -9
Florida 22nd D+1 Democratic Allen West W C 9
Florida 24th R+4 Democratic Sandy Adams W C 16
Florida 2nd R+6 Democratic Steve Southerland W C 7
Hawaii 1st D+11 Republican Charles Djou L I 5
Idaho 1st R+18 Democratic Raul Labrador W C -8
Illinois 17th D+3 Democratic Robert Schilling W C 9
Illinois 8th R+1 Democratic Joe Walsh W C -1
Illinois 11th R+1 Democratic Adam Kinzinger W C 14
Illinois 14th R+1 Democratic Randy Hultgren W C 1
Illinois 10th D+6 Republican Robert Dold W O 8
Indiana 2nd R+2 Democratic Jackie Walorski L C -3
Indiana 9th R+6 Democratic Todd Young W C -2
Kentucky 3rd D+2 Democratic Todd Lally L C -9
Maine 2nd D+3 Democratic Jason Levesque L C -7
Massachusetts 4th D+14 Democratic Sean Bielat L C 3
Massachusetts 10th D+5 Democratic Jeff Perry L O -9
Michigan 15th D+13 Democratic Rob Steele L C -4
Michigan 9th D+2 Democratic Rocky Raczkowski L C -1
Michigan 7th R+2 Democratic Tim Walberg W C 3
Michigan 1st R+3 Democratic Dan Benishek W O 5
Missouri 4th R+14 Democratic Vicky Hartzler W C -9
Nevada 3rd D+2 Democratic Joe Heck W C 3
New Hampshire 1st EVEN Democratic Frank Guinta W C 11
New Mexico 1st D+5 Democratic Jonathan Barela L C 1
New York 22nd D+6 Democratic George Phillips L C 2
New York 25th D+3 Democratic Ann Marie Buerkle W C 3
New York 20th R+2 Democratic Chris Gibson W C 8
New York 13th R+4 Democratic Michael Grimm W C 0
North Carolina 8th R+2 Democratic Harold Johnson L C -11
Ohio 13th D+5 Democratic Tom Ganley L C -5
Ohio 1st D+1 Democratic Steve Chabot W C 8
Ohio 15th D+1 Democratic Steven Stivers W C 15
Ohio 6th R+2 Democratic Bill Johnson W C 3
Ohio 16th R+4 Democratic Jim Renacci W C 0
Pennsylvania 12th R+1 Democratic Tim Burns L C -3
Pennsylvania 4th R+6 Democratic Keith Rothfus L C -8
South Carolina 5th R+7 Democratic Mick Mulvaney W C 3
Tennessee 4th R+13 Democratic Scott DesJarias W C 6
Texas 27th R+2 Democratic Blake Farenthold W C -1
Texas 17th R+20 Democratic Bill Flores W C 5
Virginia 11th D+2 Democratic Keith Femian L C 2
Virginia 9th R+11 Democratic Morgan Griffith W C -6
Washington 2nd D+3 Democratic John Koster L C 2
West Virginia 1st R+9 Democratic David McKinley W O -8
Wisconsin 8th R+2 Democratic Reid Ribble W C 8
Wisconsin 7th D+3 Democratic Sean Duffy W O 10

A few observations “worth reading”:

  • Tea Party candidates in the Senate races performed pretty well but not quite as well as their counterparts in the House.
    • Tea Partiers in Senate races end up with an overall average of -.33 vs. PVI, basically performing on average as you would expect a Republican to in the Senate races.
    • Tea Party candidates in competitive races in the House won 60% of the time. Overall Tea Party candidates in the House outperformed the PVI of their district by +.47%.
  • In the Senate races there is a difference in Tea Party win rate between challengers and those running for open seats.
    • Challengers won one and lost two against incumbents as the incumbents really did a pretty good job of defending their seats.
    • In the open races though, Tea Party candidates had success. They picked up three out of the four races for open Senate seats.
  • Tea Partiers in House Races fared better against incumbents.
    • Eighty-five percent of the Tea Party races in the House were against an incumbent. Of that group Tea Partiers outperformed the PVI of the district by +.60%.
The bottom line is that despite the current media narrative, and the loss of three high profile races by Tea Party backed candidates (Colorado, Nevada and Delaware Senate Races), being the “Tea Party” candidate was not the detriment to a campaign that some would have you believe.

In fact, by looking only at races that were truly competitive,  we find that Tea Party candidates actually perform better than one would expect the generic Republican candidate to perform.

Going into 2012, that is a fact that pundits and politicians ignore at their peril.


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11 Comments Leave a comment

Good stuff. Makes me feel proud!!

jtlfromfredmd Wednesday, November 10th at 3:26PM EDT (link)

An interesting side note…I received an e-mail blast from Dick Morris’s website today (I’m sure many other people did too) and he had some pretty amazing stats concerning the mid-terms. But, the one that was most troubling was the fact that the Big “O”‘s last week of stumping apparently did have an effect on the election. And that, of course, relates to the infamous “72 hour” thread that has been floating around this site. Great news though, concerning the Tea Party candidates.

 

TEA did well against to counter std D vote snatching

talgus Wednesday, November 10th at 5:18PM EDT (link)

Nevada being the most odious/obvious. Only big cities are Reno and LasWages, run by casinos, unions took all casino workers to vote as they watched.

you misspelled "LostWages" (the gambling capital)

MF (Diary) Thursday, November 11th at 1:53PM EDT (link)
 
 

And we must start weeding the RINOs *NOW*

america1st (Diary) Wednesday, November 10th at 7:13PM EDT (link)

“Going into 2012, that is a fact that pundits and politicians ignore at their peril.”

But going forward, we must work hard to find & advance strong Rubio-esque candidates to oppose & defeat the likes of Snowe in the primaries in order to be sure TEA party folks have solid financial conservatives on the ballot in November rather than the sad, old, “lesser of two evils” dimbulb lite candidates the establishment GOP pushed this time around (e.g., Crist, Coats).

Logic in the mind of a liberal is like a snowflake in the desert: lost, alone and soon destroyed by a hostile environment.

So true, so right!

southernpatriots (Diary) Thursday, November 11th at 10:15AM EDT (link)

We are getting tired and angry of having to support “dimbulb lite candidate” as you stated. The choice is R demlite or D Demheavy, and it is a horrible choice. Recently, our long time friend and Congressman Dr. Charlie Norwood passed. Candidates were lining up to take his place, many Ds and some Rs. Most of the Rs looked like Ds. One stood out, Dr. Paul Broun. We attended some of his rallies and asked him a question: “What is the determining factor on how you will vote on legislation?” Dr. Paul Broun answered, “By three criteria: 1. Is it Biblical? 2) Is it Constitutional? 3? Do my constituents support it? This criteria could be used by all legislators. So far, Dr. Broun has kept his word. He has spent the past almost 2 years voting against almost everything, against Obamacare, v. Spendulous, against, against, against. Then he had numerous town hall and community meetings in which huge numbers of his constituents attended to packed houses loudly declaring they were against Obamacare, Stimulus, union bailouts, Government Motors, etc. Now to get other candidates who ascribe to similar values and standards and then live them!

 
 

Yes, it's a meaningless survey

Adjoran (Diary) Thursday, November 11th at 2:32AM EDT (link)

The Tea Party problem is really several problems. The first is identity. The “Tea Party Express” is one of the more active groups arising out of the Tea Party movement, but they are not “THE Tea Party” any more than any other derivative group is: no one can truly claim to represent the movement unless there were some formal membership and election.

The next is “Who is a ‘Tea Party’ candidate?” While Toomey gain TP support, he was a former congressman who had already run for Senate once, not some grassroots candidate. Rubio might not have won without the strong support from TP-ers and conservative bloggers like Red State, but he was the Speaker of the Florida House and a candidate long before the TP noticed.

Like Rubio, O’Donnell could not have won without the TP, but she was a third-time candidate already, not some ordinary citizen inspired by a TP rally.

Now, Miller, Buck, Maes, Johnson, and Angle were probably legitimately “TP” candidates from the start. Of them, only Johnson turned out to be a truly strong candidate (based on all aspects of what that means, not just ideology, not just message and connecting, and not just background and character, but all of the above).

Angle ran as good a campaign as she could, but you can’t beat the Vegas mob/unions in a close race. Not gonna happen. You have to beat them big. Maybe Lowden or Tark could have done that, but they split the vote and Angle won the primary easily.

Tea Party-backed House candidates seemed to perform much better overall. Even many who did not win, like Bielat and McClung, outperformed expectations and put a scare into a “safe” Democrat, which is not unsuccessful. House districts are smaller, more retail politics (except in the low population states) than statewide elections, amateurs tend to fare better.

Another reason to repeal the 17th Amendment (as if that could ever pass the Senate).

Good observations....and analysis

southernpatriots (Diary) Thursday, November 11th at 12:07PM EDT (link)

The Tea Parties helped to elect many Republicans, hopefully conservatives to offices throughout the states, local races, commission and school board races, state legislatures, etc. They were very involved in New Hampshire and Maine having majority Republican legislatures now as well as majorities or very large minorities in most states across the U.S. The Tea Parties are too young to have a major impact yet on most Senate races (statewide) and maybe even national races (PODUS), but they are building a favor with citizens who are angry that liberties are being eroded and robbed. They have good momentum for a new movement. We hope through continued involvement of every day people, concerned citizens, patriots, that the Tea Parties will continue to grow in strength and influence. The biggest threat to the Tea Parties and Tea Party(ies) endorsed candidates and elected representatives is being co-opted by the establishment Republicans or marginalized by them (Trent Lott, Lindsey Graham, etc.) More and more people will get involved in a local grass roots level. We guess Nancy “wicked witch of the west” Pelosi knows the Tea Parties are not “astroturf” as the leftist said, but are a force in U.S. politics and hopefully a larger and more powerful force in the future. After all, they are comprised of moms and pops, small business owners and people of all walks of life. May we never fall asleep again and trust our reps. whether R or D to make decisions which are in our best interest and the best interest of the country and let them lead this great country toward failure.

 
 

Tea party means candidates who want strict adherence

dudette Thursday, November 11th at 5:49AM EDT (link)

to constitutional principles and some fiscal discipline. That’s really about it. Thats the beauty of the tea party movement. Its simple and anyone can understand it.

 

The Donation problem...

deunique Thursday, November 11th at 7:14AM EDT (link)

Everyone had a hand out for donations, and add to that in a bad economy.

I think the people… in we the people… support the concept of the Tea Party, and even though people like Alan Grayson tried to dilute the Tea with a phony Tea Party of Florida which was anything but a real peoples Tea; LOST:) and it served him in his lap! The sap.

The problem is, to become a Senator a candid candidate (if you could find one) almost has to be a politician first… or have enough money to buy name recognition. It is the same problem with getting incumbents out of office, people know the name and that is about all they know about their Senator or Congress person or other politician. Relatively few people have an opportunity or occasion to be involved with what the Incumbent did… other than the press releases that they hear about.

For example: Charlie Crist established a State Wide Grand Jury to be convened in South Florida and it made all the papers… What didn’t make the papers was the fact that he would do nothing about the Corruption in the Village of Palm Springs that was reported to him, time and time again, and the Grand Jury was never actually given the evidence about that well documented Corruption. So do nothing Crist got good press and many of the people bought it. Fortunately for the people, the once wildly popular Crist
LOST his bid against a man who openly professes to believe in God… and the People behind the Tea Party movement.

Thankfully, that Rino is out of the running along with his accomplices Bill McCollum and Alex Sink. Both McCollum and Sink lost their bids to be Governor to the same Rick Scott who they painted as a crook. The people, by a very narrow margin saw through their three finger pointing and decided that a new crook would be better than the old crooks.

Bill Nelson is the next Senator we need to beat. He has been nothing but a loser since he was the Insurance Commissioner who ruined Florida single handedly. But he has the “old” people fooled into believing he cares. I wonder how many of his votes he gets out of the nursing homes? And how many of his constitutes are senile? Oh, can you tell that I am opposed to Bill Nelson?

I’m going to Donate my time, energy and money to defeat him. And yes, I consider myself a Tea Partier. Of course I might want to add a little of that Old Florida Rum to the tea:)

 

The left will do ...

cam1 Thursday, November 11th at 10:28AM EDT (link)

anything to marginalize the Tea Party. But, it isn’t working … they don’t understand us. We are principled. We are fair. We willingly give. These are concepts that the left, who believe that the end justifies the means, doesn’t fathom because they can’t.

 

The "Tea Party"

momofthecastle (Diary) Thursday, November 11th at 1:12PM EDT (link)

is not a party any more than the Sons of Liberty was a party.

But who cares if the MSM ever gets it? We will be replacing them soon, too.

Oh, wait! We already have!!