Per expectations, Ted Cruz has won the Republican Primary in Wisconsin. NBC called it shortly after polls closed at 9pm. Fox News and Decision Desk HQ shortly after.

You will hear spin that because it was expected, it’s not a big loss to Donald Trump, but that is not true. These delegates matter a great deal and this is a big blow to Trump’s chances of getting to the convention with 1237.

Here are the early numbers: With 20% of precincts reporting, Ted Cruz has a 21 point lead over Trump, at 51.6% to 30.6%. Kasich is at 15.5%.

Remember there are 42 delegates up for grabs here. A huge prize. The apportionment is described here by Dan Spencer.

This post will be updated to include the latest numbers and the delegate tally as the night goes on.

So much for Donald’s big surprise.

Update: with over 70% reporting, Cruz still has a 17 point lead, and is over 50%.(11 p.m EDT)