It’s July 17, and this is your Sunday morning weekly poll round-up and public opinion flabbergastery! This week things are tighter than an otter’s pocket, which is pretty tight, what with all the swimming and ottering. The conventions begin this week. RedState writers arrive in Cleveland starting this afternoon. And with the conventions taking off, the numbers are close. Real close. Glenn close.
But be warned. Nobody should get their hopes up, or down, until you read to the end. So now, without further ado …
Here we go.
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
As you can see, over the course of the week Donald Trump lost about 3 points, while Hillary ended up pretty much where she started: way ahead. The most recent has her up 13 points over Trump.
Here is the matchup with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included, from Thursday and Friday’s daily trackers.
Hillary’s lead goes up to 3 when you include the third party candidates.
This poll was conducted July 9 – 11. In other words, after FBI Director Comey’s damning listing of Clinton’s crimes that nobody is going to charge her with. In fact just 3 days after it, and only two days after the hearing on Capitol Hill. Hillary came out of that looking bad no matter the spin or the lack of charges, and you can see it in this poll.
Not that Trump is doing much better.
As you can see, Hillary has really cratered, dropping from a nine point lead to this week’s three point. Also of note is how the race looks factoring in Gary Johnson and Jill Stein:
When Gary Johnson, the Liberarian, and Jill Stein of the Green Party are included in the presidential tossup, Clinton receives the support of 40% of voters to 35% for Trump. Johnson garners 10% of the national electorate while 5% back Stein. Two percent support someone else, and 9% are undecided. Of note, more than one in four voters who report they supported Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders during the Democratic contest say they are for Johnson, 14%, or Stein, 13%. Similarly, about a quarter of voters who backed a Republican other than Trump in the primaries report they plan to vote for Johnson, 19%, or Stein, 5%.
As with the above poll, the Marist poll includes people reacting to Comey’s press conference. In fact, this poll was conducted over a period starting on the day of the announcement of no charges. Another poll where she’s dropped following the disastrous revelations, this time a precipitous drop.
How precipitous? In a year of polling, this is the first time they’ve had her below 50%. It hurt her.
Rasmussen also shows Trump with more in-party support than Hillary, which is also different from nearly every other poll.
In the new tracking poll, through Thursday night, Trump led Clinton 43% to 40%. That’s within the poll’s margin of error of 3 points in either direction, meaning the apparent lead could be the result of chance.
By Friday morning, the poll, which will be updated every day through the election, was showing a decline in Trump’s lead.
We’ll begin tracking the daily results next week after there are enough for comparison.
The undecideds are high in this one at 21%. Among the undecided, the respondents lean Hillary Clinton at 29
Donald Trump at 28, and Gary Johnson at 11.
According to a ABC News/Washington Post poll, 56% of those surveyed disapprove of the FBI’s recommendation, 35 percent of those surveyed approve. The results come just a week after FBI Director James Comey delivered a detailed explanation of the bureau’s decision not to bring charges. The pollsters surveyed only 519 people, a relatively miniscule sample size.
The poll also finds that 57% of Americans are worried about how Clinton would govern if she were elected president in November in the wake of the Justice Department’s decision not to indict her; 39% say the two are not related.
If he can’t steal the lead after that … well it’s hard to imagine what he can do.
In any case, what matters now and for the next few weeks is how the conventions go. Momentum is a powerful thing. Whoever comes out with the most will matter to the race for a while.