It’s July 31, and this is your Sunday morning weekly poll round-up and Mayan prophecy fulfillment summary. We have Trump’s convention bounce in this weeks results, we won’t have Hillary’s until next week’s results. There are outliers, outright liars, and third party triers. (Hey work with me on the rhymes you guys.) But we have to read the results anyway, so …
Here we go.
Reuters/Ipsos Daily Poll
The Reuters/Ipsos Daily tracking on Trump vs. Clinton (animated GIF):
The daily tracker shows a steady decline for Donald Trump this week, who ends on Friday -5.4 points down from last Saturday, where he had a rare day where he topped Hillary.
The post-convention bounce for Trump was good, and in the case of the CNN/Opinion Research poll, it was very good indeed, putting him not just on top but up by a good 3 points in the head to head and, more significantly, 5 points in the 4 way race.
In the four way race, Donald Trump is ahead 44% to 39% over Hillary Clinton, with Gary Johnson pulling 9%. For Trump to lose fewer points than Hillary in the four way is great news for his campaign, even in just one poll, even with a convention bounce. Read in-depth analysis from RedState’s Dan Spencer here.
This week’s outlier is YouGov, which has Hillary Clinton up over Donald Trump by two points in the four way, five points in the two way.
This is her best result in this week’s polling. There is a 4.5% margin of error.
For weeks now, Rasmussen has reliably polled Trump higher than the other weeklies, and had him in the lead before anyone else, breaking a months long losing streak in virtually every poll. This week, Rasmussen trended different, putting Hillary back in the lead despite the Vice Presidential announcements and the convention. This poll took place before the DNC.
It’s an exact flip of last week’s numbers, but is basically a dead heat. We have more on this poll here.
We first mentioned the new daily tracking results from this poll a few weeks ago. The latest results are intriguing.
Look at the 4.9% lead Trump had on Friday. And his highest this week in this daily tracker was on Wednesday at 7.3%. Much higher than the Ipsos daily tracker in both places, but like Ipsos, it does show Clinton swinging back up at the end of the week, shades of her convention bounce which will figure into next week’s polls. Just like his bounce figures into this week’s, as we noted it would last Sunday.
This Gallup poll is not horse race or presidential preference, but we included it because it’s worth knowing and despairing of. It’s the favorable vs. unfavorable scores for both Clinton and Trump and they are terrible. They are tied at 37% favorable and 58% unfavorable. Yes. Tied.
Streiff has more on the long road to bottomsville in a chart of the results over the last year.
This week the RCP Average has Hillary Clinton with an insignificant +0.4 lead, at 43.7 to 43.3. A lot of this week’s polls canceled each other out.
Well we know one thing for sure: in poll after poll we find that, among the total pool of registered voters polled, Trump and Hillary are consistently and across the board unfavorably viewed. Many many Americans hate Trump, many many Americans hate Hillary. And brother, do I feel that. As Brandon Morse notes, there’s been one major beneficiary of America’s ill will. Guess who!
Overall, Trump’s numbers have improved over time, particularly within the Republican party. He’s not winning broadly speaking, and even when Hillary suffers major PR hits he still doesn’t take a sweeping lead, but slowly but surely the margin between the two has narrowed and they are running neck and neck – or ass and ass, to be a little more accurate – generally being disliked, but slowly getting people to settle for them, while still handing votes out to third parties. It’s a crazy year. AS THE MAYANS PROBABLY MEANT TO PREDICT BUT FORGOT TO CARRY THE TWO.