There are several counterpoints to this trend, but let’s just start with the setup and numbers first.
Obviously, we are in the midst of impeachment-mania, where the bureaucracies are leaking things almost hourly to target Trump and the Democrats continue to act super serious without actually having the stones to vote. Then you have the media going absolutely wild, framing everything in the worst light and refusing to even report on counter-evidence.
Is it any surprise while such a frenzy is going on, the American people may be shifting a bit in sentiment?
Take these latest polls for example.
As @KevinMKruse has pointed out, Nixon resigned shortly after support for his removal crossed 50%.
In the last three days:
51% want Trump impeached AND removed in the Fox News poll.
50% want Trump removed in the Morning Consult poll.
49% want Trump removed in the WaPo poll. pic.twitter.com/f1DkTf6PK3
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 9, 2019
So what does this actually mean? I’m not sure it means much. Again, we are at what is probably the worse point in this cycle for the President. Nearly hourly dumps, while there’s no clear impeachment pursuit, can lead to narratives being built that aren’t necessarily supported by facts.
What exactly is Trump supposedly going to be impeached over? We don’t know because the Democrats won’t tell us. But the chaos of it all is likely grating on voters and that’s always been a danger to Trump.
Of course, another counterfactual is just how questionable the sampling is in that Fox poll.
Dem + 14 = SEDITION not a poll pic.twitter.com/ADn35n0i2C
— FairIsFairWarfare.com (@GraciesGreenND) October 9, 2019
I mean, it’s possible that party affiliation has changed so much as to allow a 14 point spread between Republicans and Democrats, but I kind of doubt it.
The real question is what this will look like six months from now when the Democrats still haven’t impeached the President, or worse for them, they do and the Senate airs everything they are trying to keep secret, leading to his acquittal.
Eventually, this game Pelosi and Schiff are playing will grow old with the public. You can’t just keep witnesses and evidence under wraps and then say “trust us, we still have to remove the President.” Much like how impeachment support exploded in the early days of the Mueller probe, I expect to see a recession happen as this drags on.
Democrats have painted themselves into a corner. Had they waited to drop this in the summer of 2020, it may have worked to their advantage. But they risk impeachment fatigue and people realizing they don’t have the goods long before public sentiment is settled on who to vote for. The risk that something truly damning could come out still exists, but I’m doubtful we get anything but further muddying of the waters.
The window for impeachment is not a year long. Democrats will have to make their move sooner rather than later and we’ll see what these polls say after that plays out.
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