Over the last 24 hours, Russia has been facing a mutiny by one of its most trusted fighting forces. The infamous PMC Wagner group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, left the fighting in Ukraine and began a march toward Moscow in an apparent attempted coup.

RedState has provided several updates on the progress (see here and here), but after crossing into Moscow Oblast, just a few hours from the capital, there’s been a sudden turn of events.

According to an audio recording from Prigozhin, the march is now off and Wagner forces are returning to their field camps “according to the plan.”

Prigozhin says it's over:

"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood…

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 24, 2023

There are way too many questions here to make any real determination as to what this means. It’s highly unlikely that PMC Wagner is making this move without getting something in return. What did Putin promise them to get them to turn around? Has Prigozhin, who was facing arrest prior to this, bought himself some kind of reprieve?

Then there’s the possibility that this is a ruse to buy time while the rest of Prigozhin’s forces catch up and get some rest. Even in modern times, long marches are not without their costs in fatigue and fuel. There are also rumors that PMC Wagner doesn’t have much night vision equipment. That could also play a role given darkness has set in over Russia (as of this writing). Is it possible the coup is still on but there’s some gamesmanship going on?

Again, there’s just no way to tell right now. Regardless, this has weakened Putin given the lack of support he garnered while under threat. That he had to flee his own capital also isn’t going to help his image internally, and he’s got plenty of enemies inside Russia.

As to the war in Ukraine, I’d guess PMC Wagner, which has been an important part of the fighting there, isn’t going to be helping out anymore. That has to have some effect.

This is a developing story and updates will be provided as they come.