It’s the final sprint toward the finish line in the 2018 midterms, and almost all eyes are on the race in Texas between Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke.
The race has had national attention in no small part because of O’Rourke, who has been given the Hollywood treatment. So desperate is the left to unseat Cruz that they’ve thrown no shortage of attention and money at O’Rourke. Especially money, somewhere north of $70 million.
However, like Jon Ossoff before him, all that money doesn’t seem to be putting him in the lead. According to the Daily Caller, which has been tracking multiple polls, Republican Cruz is still leading in his Republican state:
The statewide Dixie Strategies/CBS11 poll, released Tuesday evening, shows 52 percent of likely voters preferring Cruz, and only 42 percent going for O’Rourke. The margin widened by 6 points compared to the same poll that was taken in early September.
At 46.5 percent, Cruz is ahead of O’Rourke by only 4.3 points, according to a UT Tyler poll. The polling center, which was opened in September, has not previously tracked the match-up, but would show the race the tightest that it has been in months.
Cruz has enjoyed this lead for some time now, but like strangers in a packed doctor’s office, O’Rourke has been uncomfortably close for having the same coastal elitist views Texans reject.
As I’ve written previously in detail, this might be worse news than we think. Texas has been a magnet for blue state residents fleeing places like California or New York for jobs or cheaper living conditions, and not in just small groups, but by the thousands. While some may be right-leaning families seeking greener pastures, many are job opportunists who would have no problem bringing their blue-state voting habits with them.
To be clear, Texas’s voting demographics may be under a larger change than we believe. Paired with an energized voting base over the national popularity of O’Rourke, Cruz’s Senate seat could very well be in danger. The polls may say otherwise, but Republicans should be wary of what happened with the polls in 2016 as much as they should celebrate it.