That blue wave we kept hearing about is being overcome by a crimson tsunami, at least according to early voting tallies as Republicans prove to be more motivated than Democrats.
NBC News reported that more people showed up to early voting, outpacing the 2014 midterms by leaps and bounds with a whopping 24,024,621 million ballots having already been counted.
For comparison, 2014 only had 12,938,596 counted by this time, putting 2018 at nearly double.
To be sure, both parties have been turned out in great number, but according to NBC, the Republicans are currently up with a 2 point lead:
As of Wednesday, 43 percent of early voters are Republican and 41 percent are Democrats. At this point in 2016, 43 percent of early voters were Democrats and 40 percent were Republicans.
At this point in 2014, though, 44 percent were Republican and 40 percent were Democrats.
This is cause for excitement, but not cause to assume Republicans have achieved a victory. Note that in 2016, Democrats were up in early voting by three points. Republicans are currently only up by two.
All clues point to the Senate staying Republican, but as Ed Morrissey at Hot Air notes, the House is still very much in trouble:
However, don’t forget that Democrats don’t necessarily need a “blue wave” to win back the House. The GOP has three dozen House retirements with which to contend, as well as the need to hold onto gains made at expense of Democrats that may see voters returning to type when a Republican holds the White House.
In case anyone’s forgotten what a heavy lift holding the House majority will be for Republicans, the Washington Post offers a reminder today. Its new battleground poll — a generic-congressional ballot survey focused on 69 competitive districts — shows Democrats still leading, albeit almost within the margin of error. Four years ago, Republicans led by 15, and they won most of the districts involved as a result.
Republicans are far from out of the fight, but it’s definitely an uphill battle for the House, and one that can only be won with a continued solid voter turnout.