I once infiltrated Democrat gatherings in Texas while I was working with Project Veritas during the race between then-Attorney General Greg Abbott and then-Texas Senator Wendy Davis. While these small gatherings of people had a goal to turn Texas blue, even then, they weren’t exactly optimistic.
They had every reason to doubt the success of their own undertaking. Texas is a deep hue of blood-red, and while the cities are little islands of blue, the sheer size of the state overpowers them, and a good thing too. Major Texas cities are hefty with problems that only get worse in the face of Democrat leadership. Take, for instance, Austin’s overwhelming homeless problem, or Dallas’s exponentially increasing crime rate.
With the 2020 election coming up, people wondered if Texas was set to turn purple after the showing during the race for Ted Cruz’s Senate seat in 2018. Challenger Robert “Beto” O’Rourke made a strong showing, but in the end, lost to Cruz by a margin many Republicans feel uncomfortable with. Regardless of Cruz’s win, there was blood in the water.
That said, if Democrats were hoping that blood would invigorate Democrat voters in the Lone Star State, then they’ll probably feel sorely disappointed after this latest poll from Texas at Tyler and 538.
According to 538, those polled show that when it comes to facing down any Democrat, Trump comes out on top:
One year out from the 2020 election, President Trump is leading all Democrats in head to head contests. He beats Joe Biden (+5), Bernie Sanders (+4), and Elizabeth Warren (+11). Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, and Julian Castro also trail Trump by double-digits. Interestingly, Trump’s surging support in head to heads since September appears to be coming from previously undecided respondents.
The last sentence is something to consider.
While this may not reflect the rest of the nation, those Texas voters who were previously undecided seem to be leaning towards Trump for the general elections, showing a trend that independents may be more keen on voting Republican than Democrat.
Texas being a Republican stronghold may not be a solid example of how independents around the nation may lean in 2020, but according to The Hill, nearly half of independents across the nation have already spoken out and declared the Democrat party to be far too left than they’re comfortable with.
If that does end up being the case, then this may end up assuaging many fears we Texans had about the recent influx of blue state refugees. It was predicted that the thousands moving in from states like New York and California would tip Texas purple in the coming election, but the polls don’t reflect that.
That said, we should never put our total faith in polls. They once told us that 2016 was going to put Hillary Clinton in the White House handily and now her primary profession is tweeting out random shots at Trump and struggling to fill rooms for her talks.
The safe bet is to not rest on the idea that Republicans have it in the bag and show up to the polls when it comes time.