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Trump's Popularity in the Polls Might Not Be About His Popularity

AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

The massive lead former President Donald Trump has had since the Republican primaries started hasn't been seriously challenged by any other Republican candidates. While it's not over till it's over, Trump seems to have the primary locked up tight to the point where donors aren't even throwing their money into the ring for other candidates in large numbers. 

As longtime GOP strategist Ken Spain said of the other candidates' lack of donations "It's become clear that the cavalry's not coming," adding "The donor community has come to recognize the strength of Trump and the difficulty in dislodging a major part of the base from him. You’re tilting at windmills if you try.”

As the Daily Wire reported, polls have Trump ahead by leaps and bounds: 

Trump is polling at a dominant 63.8% in RCP’s average of national Republican primary polls as of Friday morning. The former president holds a 52-point lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (11.6%), who has dropped nearly three points since last month and is now neck-and-neck with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (10.8%).   

The Republican candidates are just weeks away from their first true test in the Iowa caucuses on January 15 and then the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire on January 23. Trump’s polling lead in Iowa stands at 32 points as he pulls 51.3% support to DeSantis’ 18.6% and Haley’s 16.1%. In New Hampshire, Trump has a less comfortable lead, sitting at 46.3% while Haley comes in second at 24.8%.

But not only has Trump maintained a strong lead in the polls, he also seems to have only grown in popularity. This is odd, considering Trump hasn't exactly been on any national stages, at least not any debate stages. The corporate media and Democrat politicians still seem to have a hard time keeping his name out of their mouths. 

Of course, they do this to their own detriment. 

I can tell you from watching rallies both on video and in person that the fervor within the GOP for Trump isn't fake. I can remember Trump's speech during TPUSA's Americafest in 2022 and the crowd in the room was beyond capacity. Trump went well over his time and people were still sitting with rapt attention. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis also had a large crowd, but you could definitely tell Trump's was far greater. 

Before I'm accused of trying to pump Trump up, I want to make it clear that these are observations I've made and they should not be taken as anything other than observations. 

Trump's popularity has only grown since and I think it's safe to say that this is because his popularity is now extending outside of the GOP. People who don't even identify as Republican voters are openly in support of Trump, and many of them have the same reasoning; they do not like what the Democrats have done to our country and the way the Biden administration has run it into the ground. 

Many Americans have watched as everything from their electricity to their grocery bill has grown out of control. Gas prices have plagued everyone and on top of that, crime and illegal migration across our border are rising at an uncontrollable rate. 

As people suffer personally, feelings are getting personal against the Biden administration. This cultivates what is arguably one of the most powerfully motivating forces on the planet: spite. 

Over the course of the last few years alone, I've watched as spite has torn down businesses and elevated others to new heights. My guess is that spite is a contributing factor to Trump's popularity. 

My theory is that as Biden and the Democrats cause more suffering, they create a byproduct of spite which people will then use to select which opponent of the administration they'll end up voting for. Combined with the fact that the entirety of the Democrat Party attack machine has been aimed at Trump, including endless media reports, a weaponized justice system, and a mugshot that gave Trump "outlaw" status, you can bet that the Democrats have effectively told people who the party is afraid of. 

This has caused the people to infuse Trump with even more support, causing him to only grow in influence despite never having appeared on a debate stage. In fact, I'm willing to bet that a lot of the people now supporting Trump haven't actually seen anything he's had to say over the past few years with the exception of random clips they accidentally came across. I think many people just remember that things were much better under him and got much worse when he was gone. 

I can't say for sure, but I do know that what we're witnessing is a very rare phenomenon. This doesn't necessarily mean that Trump is guaranteed victory in the primaries or the general election in 2024, but it definitely makes it more likely. There's still a lot of football left to play, and time will tell how things progress as we get closer to November. 

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