Opinion: What to Look for Next in Iran

Screen Shot: https://twitter.com/HeshmatAlavi/status/1216343324283539457

Things in Iran are rapidly coming to a climax. As far back as the Obama administration, there has been some sort of low-level unrest. Of course his failure to even give even a “lip service” level of support, enabled the totalitarian theocracy to crack down and brutally suppress any nascent uprising.

Suppressed, but not totally eliminated. Since the inauguration of President Trump and his administration’s concomitant ramping up of sanctions on the regime, that unrest has been growing, with sporadic flare-ups garnering international notice. Why? Because the Trump sanctions are working. The Ayatollahs and the rest of the corruptocrats in Iran are feeling the heat. As mentioned by David Webb on his morning show* yesterday, the economic sanctions (which I neglected to mention in a previous piece) have had a very real impact on the regime’s ability to access the funds necessary finance their bloody objectives.

The protests are becoming borderline uncontrollable and as I mentioned in a another article, they are demonstrating overt support for the United States and Israel, with protestors chanting, “The United States and Israelis are not our enemy!”

READ: Opinion: 3D Chess — How President Trump Put Everything Together, From Fracking to Iranian Freedom

Now comes my good friend, stellar writer and Red State colleague Betsy Vaughn, who reports that the Iranian Ayatollahs have ordered their soldiers to fire live ammunition at protestors, killing some and wounding many others, leaving pooled blood in the street.

READ: Video Purportedly Shows Regime Forces Firing Live Ammunition into Crowd; Protests Continue for a Third Day

At this point, this situation can go anywhere—but nowhere good. The Ayatollahs are in the position of having no good options—merely a range of from bad, to really bad. This is a change from the circumstance under the Obama Administration. According to Dr. Walid Phares, former advisor to the Donald Trump campaign, who I just happened to catch on Alex Marlow’s, Breitbart News Daily,** under the Obama administration, Iranian protestors were chanting words to the effect of, “We just want your support. We don’t need your soldiers. We just want your words of support.”

Of course, no such words were offered. Instead, then-President Obama sent the regime pallets of cash to help fund their continued brutality towards their citizens and the death and dismemberment of American Troops.

Dr. Phares went on to say that the Trump administration is going about this right. The President has been reluctant to use deadly force until his Red Line — the death of an American Citizen — was crossed. At that point, the gloves came off and former General Soleimani is explaining his misdeeds to Allah, or as I opined in a previous piece, to 72 Virgin(ians). The Iranian populace, based on their avid tearing down of his commemorative posters, seem to be quite fine with that.

President Trump has also weighed in via a series of tweets directed towards the Iranian populace and the regime leadership—and in Farsi. He has expressed the support for the Iranian protestors and has warned the government not to kill them or shut off the Internet. Despite being warned by the single most powerful man on earth, the Iranian government saw fit to fire on its own people, a total disregard by the Iranian government.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
به مردم شجاع و رنج کشیده ایران: من از ابتدای دوره ریاست جمهوریم با شما ایستاده‌ام و دولت من همچنان با شما خواهد ایستاد. ما اعتراضات شما را از نزدیک دنبال می کنیم. شجاعت شما الهام بخش است.

363K
3:46 PM – Jan 11, 2020

The average Iranian is well aware of all of this. Their soldiers are too. Their soldiers, sergeants, and officers are too. If they continue to fire on their own countrymen, they are going to find themselves looking in two directions in search of threats to their own safety.

In one direction, there is the U.S. President, who is now known to be very unpredictable. That President commands forces with such sophisticated equipment that a cruise missile could knock on any door, fly down the hallway, turn left and blow up under a specific target’s bed. Not quite, but you’d better believe that the rank and file soldiers in the Iranian war and terror machine believe it.

Let me tell you what else they believe. Many of them live out in the communities they are stationed near. All of their neighbors know they are soldiers. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that, at some point, communities will start taking these soldiers’ families hostage, or worse, doing to them what they have been doing to the populace.

Once that happens, what we should be looking for are soldiers refusing orders to fire and defecting to the side of their protesting countrymen. The next step is when officers start joining the enlisted defectors. The final and most critical point will be when a few senior Colonels join the resistance. These are the guys who have the training and experience to actually organize any serious resistance, resistance that has some measurable chance of removing the Ayatollahs. When the first General Officer gets on board, the Mullahs better start packing.

* The David Webb show is on Sirius XM 125 M-F 0900-1200 EST
** Breitbart News Daily is on the same channel, M-F 0600-0900 EST

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Mike Ford
Mike Ford, a retired Infantry Officer, writes on Military, Foreign Affairs and occasionally dabbles in Political and Economic matters. 
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