President Donald Trump speaks about the coronavirus in the James Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House, Tuesday, April 7, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
This is the 22nd in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States. As of 2359Z, the below charts reflect current U.S. Wuhan virus numbers.
Chart One’s data table shows Total Infections, Total Fatalities, and the Mortality Rate. The upper graph shows the number of NEW infections by date. Hopefully, this will give us a clear view of the infection trend line as more test materials make it into the field and into common use. Today’s number of new infections is 26,766, which is 6575 fewer than yesterday. The curve in new infections is still moving in the right direction.
The lower graph shows new U.S. Fatalities. Today, we added 1827 to the total count of American deaths, raising the total to 14,668. This was 143 fewer than yesterday. These numbers are being mostly driven by New York, New Jersey, and Michigan. More on this further down.
The second chart shows the U.S. Wuhan Virus Mortality rate. The Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) remains well over 3%
This chart also contains a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 3.43%
+1 = 1.72%
+2 = 1.14%
+3 = 0.86%
Analysis: for the past few days, the numbers have appeared to be doing some weird things. New Infections appear to be leveling off somewhat while New Fatalities, driven mostly by New York and New Jersey and now Michigan, have taken an abrupt spike. The New York numbers are especially curious given that Governor Cuomo was recently speaking about hospital discharges now outnumbering admissions. I personally believe that there is some “there,” there. I’ve done some additional research and Surprise! There are competing interests that have allied with each other. Follow the money. My findings are the subject of tomorrow’s OPED.
The Red State Team hopes this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments. The guys who took time out of their busy schedules to help me do the statistical analysis research for today’s OPED, appreciate all the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.
Below is the screenshot of the Worldometers site, showing the “as of” timestamp for the data in this post.