President Donald Trump speaks about the coronavirus in the James Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House, Thursday, April 9, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
This is the 23rd in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States. As of 2359Z, the below charts reflect current U.S. Wuhan virus numbers.
Chart One’s data table shows Total Infections, Total Fatalities, and the Mortality Rate. The upper graph shows the number of NEW infections by date. Hopefully, this will give us a clear view of the infection trend line as more test materials make it into the field and into common use. Today’s number of new infections is 33,359, which is 1,233 fewer than yesterday. The curve in new infections is still moving in the right direction.
The lower graph shows new U.S. Fatalities. Today, we added 1,858 to the total count of American deaths, raising the total to 16,649. This was 92 fewer than yesterday, a two-day “streak” of lower fatality numbers. New York, New Jersey Louisiana and Michigan continue to drive and possibly distort the numbers.
The second chart shows the U.S. Wuhan Virus Mortality rate. The Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) remains well over 3%.
This chart also contains a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 3.56%
+1 = 1.78%
+2 = 1.19%
+3 = 0.89%
Analysis: The high-level view of new cases and fatalities continue to indicate we are very close to the apex of this epidemic. The calculated Mortality Rate continues to rise because of two factors…far fewer cases each day, which decreases the “denominator” coupled with fatalities being a lagging indicator. The second factor is an obvious and federally-sanctioned distortion of the fatality numbers, which improperly classifies many deaths as Wuhan Virus related. This needs to stop or we will never get a true handle on the numbers and of course, cannot make reasoned decisions.
Note: Here is yet another example that I was able to catch yet another late update…upwards to the previous day’s Fatalities. At 23:12 the count was revised upwards from 14,788 to 14,791. not a lot, but look for more of this going forward as localities begin to implement COL/Dr. Birx’s very loose definitions of a Wuhan Virus Fatality.
The Red State Team hopes this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments. The guys who took time out of their busy schedules to help me do the statistical analysis research for today’s OPED, appreciate all the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.
Below is the screenshot of the Worldometers site, showing the “as of” timestamp for the data in this post.