Bernie Sanders by Gage Skidmore, licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0/Original

 

A newly released poll shows Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) with a six point lead over his nearest competitor in the key state of New Hampshire. The Gravis Marketing poll shows Sanders at 21% in the Democrat primary and former vice president Joe Biden with 15%.

The poll shows Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) at 12%, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (South Bend, IN) at 8%, Sen. Kamala Harris of (CA) at 7%, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI) at 5%, and tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang and businessman Tom Steyer in a tie at 4%. Rep. Julian Castro (TX) and Beto O’Rourke (TX) each garnered 2% of the vote. All other candidates, including Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), received 1% or less.

Other polls of the state show this shift occurred in the last two weeks. The most recent Democratic debates were held on July 30th and 31st.

Fivethirtyeight.com provides a full list of polls conducted by Democratic primary pollsters during this election cycle.

Gravis Marketing president Doug Kaplan said, “It is important to note that Sen. Sanders won the New Hampshire Democratic Primary in 2016. However, it is unlikely that Sen. Sanders will have a repeat of his 2016 performance in the state due to the number of candidates in the race this time.”

In the 2016 primary, Sanders received 60.2% of the vote compared to Clinton with 37.7%.

This is Gravis’ first poll of  New Hampshire primary voters in this election cycle. It was conducted between August 2nd and 6th and has a margin of error of 6.2%.

President Trump did not fare so well in head-to-head match-ups with the top candidates in the field.

The poll showed Biden defeating Trump by 53% to 40%, Sanders, 51% to 41%, Warren, 49% to 44%, Buttiegieg, 49% to 42% and Harris, 47 to 44%.

Kaplan noted that, “The last time a Republican Presidential candidate won New Hampshire’s electoral votes was in 2000. New Hampshire has always been a competitive state since 1992, however the state wasn’t as close as it was in 2016 since several presidential cycles.”

The Real Clear Politics average of national polls shows Biden holding onto a 30.8% lead, Warren with 18% and Sanders at 16.8%.