A Zogby/Wall St. 24/7 poll released on Monday showed President Trump slightly ahead of the top 2020 Democratic hopefuls. The online poll, conducted August 9-12, surveyed 897 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.
In a head-to-head race, Trump topped former Vice President Joe Biden by a margin of 46% to 45%. 9% were not sure.
Trump outperformed Biden among voters aged 65+ (56% to 40%), men (53% to 42%), independents (44% to 36%), small-city voters (47% to 43%), and suburban voters (45% to 44%).
Biden topped Trump among millennials (50% to 38%), women (48% to 39%), suburban women (50% to 35%), large-city voters (46% to 45%), African Americans (74% to 21%), and Hispanics (48% to 46%).
Although Biden won among Hispanics, 46% is an impressive number for a Republican candidate.
In a head-to-head race, Trump led Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) by a 45% to 44% margin, a statistical tie. 11% were not sure.
Sanders topped Trump with suburban women (45% to 36%), Hispanics (52% to 43%), African Americans (77% to 17%), Generation Z voters, those people born from 1995 to 2010 (66% for Sanders, Trump’s support was not available), medium-city voters (53% to 38%), and small-city voters (47% to 43%).
The two were tied among independents (39%), and large-city voters (46%).
In a head-to-head race, Trump topped Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) by a 44% to 42% margin. 14% were not sure.
Harris outperformed among millennials (51% to 32%), Generation Z (56% to 26%), Hispanics (58% to 34%), suburban women (46% to 37%), and interestingly, among all women (42% to 39%).
Trump led among independents (41% to 35%), men (50% to 41%), small-city voters (46% to 40%), and suburban voters (45% to 40%).
In a race against Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Trump was ahead by a 45% to 43% margin. 13% were not sure.
The poll also showed Trump besting South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) by a 45% to 42% margin, with 14% unsure.
Perhaps the most interesting results concerned “silent” Trump supporters. Nearly half of those surveyed, 49% (22% strongly and 27% somewhat strongly), agreed with the following statement:
Even though I tell people I do not approve of Donald Trump, I personally agree with him on certain issues.
Zogby notes that the percentage of likely voters who believe they have to “silently” support Trump has increased to 49% from 40% in the last year.
There are many Democrats who do not support the far left platforms of the current field of 2020 candidates. For example, the majority of Americans oppose open borders, providing free medical care to illegals, late term abortions, and the Green New Deal. And some are afraid to voice their opinions.
I find the concept of silent support to be fascinating. The fact that it’s a serious question from a major pollster speaks volumes about the state of American politics. (Note: If any readers are interested in looking at the breakdown of where various groups and sub-groups stand in regard to silent support, please scroll down.)
This poll was last conducted in May and at that time, the President was trailing the top 2020 Democratic candidates. His position has improved considerably since then. He is now in a statistical dead heat with Biden and Sanders and is seen as narrowly defeating Warren, Harris and Buttiegieg. The poll found that Trump “has made in-roads with independents, suburban voters, urban men, and, urban parents” and has “increased support among his base — men, consumer blocs, older voters, and union voters.”
Most sub-groups who typically support the president were more agreeable to the idea of hiding their support Trump but there were some surprises among the demographics we surveyed.
The groups most likely to “strongly and somewhat” agree they privately support Trump on certain issues were: likely voters living in the East (56% at least somewhat agree/44% at least somewhat disagree). Likely voters living in the West were more disagreeable (45% at least somewhat agree/55% at least somewhat disagree).
Other groups who agreed they “silently” support the president included workers employed full time (55% agree/45% disagree), NASCAR fans (63% agree/37% disagree), union workers (63% agree/38% disagree), weekly Amazon shoppers (60% agree/40% disagree), weekly Walmart shoppers (56% agree/44% disagree), Hispanics (64% agree/36% disagree), NRA members (77% agree/23% disagree), investor class voters (60% agree/40% disagree), and self-identified creative class voters (57% agree/43% disagree).
There were differences in the level of agreement when it came to age, gender and where voters lived. A majority of millennials aged 18-29 (52% agree/48% disagree) agreed they support Trump on certain issues in private, while older voters aged 50-64 felt the opposite (43% agree/57% disagree). Men (54% agree/46% disagree) were more likely to feel compelled to hide their support for the president on certain issues than women (44% agree/56% disagree).
The sub-groups most likely to disagree with “silently” supporting Donald Trump were Democrats (69% disagree/31% agree), liberals (70% disagree/31% agree), voters divorced/widowed/separated (62% disagree/38% agree), and voters not in unions (53% disagree/47% agree).