New Model Forecasts Date of Expected Peak in Your State, Probable Number of Deaths

Kirkland Fire and Rescue ambulance workers walk back to a vehicle after a patient was loaded into an ambulance, Tuesday, March 10, 2020, at the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Wash., near Seattle. The nursing home is at the center of the outbreak of the new coronavirus in Washington state. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

 

Update: (Monday) I posted this on Sunday night. Overnight, all of these numbers were revised downward – sharply. Updated figures can be found here. (The drop-down menu in the green stripe lists each state.) An interactive feature allows you to look at projections for any date. My colleague, Nick Arama, posted about the revisions here.

We might not want to bet the ranch on the latest model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, but they have come out with a new report which forecasts the date the coronavirus is expected to peak and the likely number of deaths in each state. This projection assumes full social distancing through May, which is not the case with the earlier IHME model (used by the White House) that was widely criticized last week. The results in the new forecast are more realistic, although they still appear to be a little high.

IHME explained why they created these models. They wrote, “Ultimately, these forecasts were developed to provide hospitals, health care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources, so that they could begin to plan.”

The model forecasts that the highest number of coronavirus deaths in the U.S. (2,644) will occur on April 16. It also predicts that New York will peak on April 10 when 855 will die. But New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is cautiously optimistic that deaths in the Empire State may already be peaking. He told reporters, “You could argue that you are seeing a plateauing.” On Friday, the state reported 562 deaths. On Saturday, the number was 630 and on Sunday, it was 594.

Cuomo also said hospitals in the state just saw a “slight drop in intensive care admissions” and the number of patients who require ventilators. He added that the hospital discharge rate is “way up.”

He said he cannot be sure if this is the apex, but he called it “great news.”

The Hill’s Anagha Srikanth explains that this model is a “preprint” which means it has not been reviewed by peers.

Here are the state-by-state numbers (via The Daily Wire) through April 4. Updated figures can be found here. (The drop-down menu in the green stripe lists each state.) An interactive feature allows you to look at projections for any date.

  • United States:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 15, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 2,644 deaths on April 16, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 93,531 deaths.
  • Alabama:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 17, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 303 deaths on April 19, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 5,515 deaths.
  • Alaska:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 15, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 5 deaths on April 14, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 148 deaths.
  • Arizona:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 27, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 40 deaths on April 26, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,378 deaths.
  • Arkansas
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 21 deaths on April 26, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 619 deaths.
  • California
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 119 deaths on April 26, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 5,068 deaths.
  • Colorado:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 17, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 85 deaths on April 18, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 2,154 deaths.
  • Connecticut:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 15, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 43 deaths on April 15, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,144 deaths.
  • Delaware:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 11, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 9 deaths on April 11, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 166 deaths.
  • District of Columbia:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 15, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 9 deaths on April 13, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 218 deaths.
  • Florida:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 3, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 175 deaths on May 4, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 6,897 deaths.
  • Georgia:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 24, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 96 deaths on April 25, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 3,232 deaths.
  • Hawaii:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 3, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 12 deaths on May 1, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 372 deaths.
  • Idaho:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 12 deaths on April 26, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 397 deaths.
  • Illinois:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 20, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 109 deaths on April 20, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 3,386 deaths.
  • Indiana:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 19, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 35 deaths on April 20, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,160 deaths.
  • Iowa:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 1, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 49 deaths on May 1, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,488 deaths.
  • Kansas:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 28, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 18 deaths on April 26, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 640 deaths.
  • Kentucky:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 16, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 15 deaths on May 13, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 821 deaths.
  • Louisiana:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 9, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 76 deaths on April 10, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,834
  • Maine:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 17, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 12 deaths on April 15, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 364 deaths.
  • Maryland:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 29, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 53 deaths on April 28, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,766 deaths.
  • Massachusetts:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 16, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 100 deaths on April 17, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 2,381 deaths.
  • Michigan:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 9, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 173 deaths on April 11, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 3,169 deaths.
  • Minnesota:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 22, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 36 deaths on April 21, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 932 deaths.
  • Mississippi:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 21, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 34 deaths on April 20, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 918 deaths.
  • Missouri:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 21, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 22 deaths on May 18, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,290 deaths.
  • Montana:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 9 deaths on April 25, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 266 deaths.
  • Nebraska:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 23, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 15 deaths on April 23, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 447 deaths.
  • Nevada:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 20, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 26 deaths on April 18, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 799 deaths.
  • New Hampshire:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 17, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 11 deaths on April 15, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 331 deaths.
  • New Jersey:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 8, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 104 deaths on April 9, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 2,117 deaths.
  • New Mexico:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 24, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 17 deaths on April 22, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 525 deaths.
  • New York:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 9, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 855 deaths on April 10, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 16,261 deaths.
  • North Carolina:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 51 deaths on April 27, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,534 deaths.
  • North Dakota:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 21, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 6 deaths on April 20, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 169 deaths.
  • Ohio:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 19, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 69 deaths on April 19, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,898 deaths.
  • Oklahoma:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 23, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 52 deaths on April 23, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,419 deaths.
  • Oregon:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 5, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 11 deaths on May 2, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 558 deaths.
  • Pennsylvania
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 18, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 79 deaths on April 19, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 2,023 deaths.
  • Rhode Island:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 20, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 8 deaths on April 16, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 259 deaths.
  • South Carolina:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 28, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 31 deaths on April 28, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,095 deaths.
  • South Dakota:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 4, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 6 deaths on April 29, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 204 deaths.
  • Tennessee:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 19, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 165 deaths on April 20, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 3,422 deaths.
  • Texas:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 6, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 161 deaths on May 6, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 6,392 deaths.
  • Utah:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 23, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 18 deaths on April 23, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 580 deaths.
  • Vermont:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 9, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 2 deaths on April 2, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 58 deaths.
  • Virginia:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 20, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 59 deaths.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 3,152 deaths.
  • Washington:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 11, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 22 deaths on April 9, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 978 deaths.
  • West Virginia:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 4, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 15 deaths on May 1, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 487 deaths.
  • Wisconsin:
    • Peak hospital resource use: April 27, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 25 deaths on April 27, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 951 deaths.
  • Wyoming:
    • Peak hospital resource use: May 4, 2020.
    • Peak deaths per day: 4 deaths on April 28, 2020.
    • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 140 deaths.
Elizabeth Vaughn
Writer at RedState
MBA, former financial consultant, options trader
Mom of three grown children, grandmother
Email Elizabeth at [email protected]

 
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