There are GOP contests in four different states tonight – Mississippi, Michigan, Idaho and Hawaii. Donald Trump is expected to continue his good run in the deep south and win Mississippi. Michigan however, is all over the place. It could go to Kasich.
Here is some exit polling data that could give some insights from ABC:
In hypothetical two-way races, Trump leads Rubio by a wide margin and Cruz by a much closer one in Mississippi. In Michigan, Trump-Cruz and Trump-Rubio head-to-heads are close.
Majorities in both states today think trade with other countries takes away rather than creates U.S. jobs. And eight in 10 in Mississippi and more than six in 10 in Michigan are very worried about the economy’s direction. Such “very worried” voters have been a better group from Trump than Cruz in the primaries so far.
Half of GOP primary voters in Mississippi support deporting undocumented immigrants rather than giving them a path to legal status, higher than the average from previous primaries. In Michigan, fewer but nearly four in 10 support deportation. Deportation supporters have been another strong group for Trump in past contests. Rubio’s done much better among the somewhat larger group of voters who’d prefer a path to legal status (similar to Kasich in New Hampshire).
Anger at the federal government remains high among GOP primary voters, more than four in 10 in Mississippi and three in 10 in Michigan. In primaries to date, Trump’s won 42 percent of angry voters, vs. 32 percent for Cruz. Among those who are dissatisfied but not angry, it’s been a wash between Trump, Cruz and Rubio.
Six in 10 voters in Mississippi and a little more than half in Michigan say they’d like the next president to be someone from “outside the political establishment.” Trump’s won six in 10 of these voters to date. The share of “outsider” voters in Mississippi matches the high to date, in Nevada.
Some more information: