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Has the Middle East Conflict Reshaped the 2024 Presidential Race?

AP Photo/Fatima Shbair

Before Saturday, things had been rather quiet on the Middle Eastern front, hadn't they? In the 2000s, Middle East geopolitics were a mainstay in news coverage and the overall political conversation in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. But lately, issues related to Israel, the Palestinians, and other entities have not garnered the same level of attention as in days past.

Then, Hamas decided to launch a surprise attack on Israel.

It is not an exaggeration to suggest that this might change things up in the 2024 presidential election as it starts to peek over the horizon. It seems that now, the foreign policy conversation has stomped into the room, grabbed some beer and snacks from the kitchen, and then plopped down on the sofa uninvited.

The conflict, which has claimed over 2,000 lives so far, including over 20 Americans, is now in the mouths of everyone seeking to occupy the Oval Office. If the war in Gaza continues or spills over to other countries, there can be no doubt that foreign policy will play a major role in determining who America chooses as its next commander-in-chief.

Right now, Republicans vying for the presidential nomination are duking it out over who would handle the disaster in Israel most effectively. Former President Donald Trump has come under fire from left-wing media and even Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for referring to the leadership of terrorist group Hezbollah as “smart.”

During a trip to New Hampshire, a reporter asked DeSantis about former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has extensive foreign policy experience, which the Florida governor dismissed. “I think the U.N. is a worthless organization, quite frankly,” he said. “All they do is sanction Israel. Like, that’s really what it exists for, OK?”

Of course, DeSantis is spot on. The United Nations is about as useful as trying to put out a California wildfire with a Super Soaker.

It is also worth mentioning that other than Haley, Trump is the only individual in the Republican field who has experience dealing with foreign policy on a national scale. Indeed, many on the right – and even on the left – favored his approach to the rest of the world. He decimated ISIS. He did not start any new wars. Through the Abraham Accords, he brought Israel closer to peace by normalizing diplomatic relations with the Jewish states and several Arab nations. It wasn’t perfect, but it was a far cry from the days of Neocon yore.

Indeed, Democrats knew foreign policy would be a weakness for Biden during the 2020 presidential race. Remember the third debate between Trump and Biden? This debate is typically supposed to focus on foreign policy. Yet, the organizers, who were clearly in Biden’s camp, changed it up and decided to hone in on different topics.

Why?

Because they knew Trump’s record would wipe the floor with Biden’s when he was vice president under Barack Obama.

Even further, the war in Israel has prompted speculation that it could embolden terrorists to carry out attacks in the Western world. While there haven’t been many radical Islamic terrorist attacks on U.S. soil over the past five years, it is conceivable that they could start up once again.

Indeed, Republican lawmakers are sounding the clarion call on the border crisis, which has already seen a disturbing number of individuals with ties to terrorism crossing the southern border.

Several Republican and Democratic politicians have highlighted the border crisis as a potential area that could endanger Americans even more than it already has as the situation in the Middle East intensifies.

Republican and Democratic members of Congress said more needs to be done to secure the U.S. southern border with Mexico after seeing how militants from a foreign terrorist organization broke across the Israel-Gaza Strip border and committed mass atrocities.

House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green (R-TN) has led House Republicans calls this year for the Biden administration to act on the burgeoning border problem that has crippled sanctuary cities and states far north of the border in New England and the Midwest.

"Evil actors, including terrorist groups, are constantly seeking to exploit weaknesses in our national security, and unfortunately, Secretary Mayorkas’s open border has given them a golden opportunity to do so," Green said. “The horrific and cowardly attacks on our indispensable ally Israel are a sober reminder that we cannot take our own homeland security for granted."

At this time in history, it might feel a bit weird to be talking about terrorism and the Middle East again as we were during the Bush and Obama years. To me, these conversations almost feel like taking out an old book I haven’t read in ages, blowing the dust off, and opening up the pages to dive into a story I’d long forgotten. But there is a good chance that these discussions are coming back to the forefront, and anyone who wants to be president after 2024 better have answers that Americans want to hear if they want any chance of winning.

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