After Child Separation Policy Blow-up, Democrats' 2018 Advantage... Shrinks?

Hawa Tembe, whose mother is from Mozambique, joins the applause as Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., top center, joined by Hispanic Caucus Chair Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, D-N.M., and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., protest against threats by President Donald Trump against Central American asylum-seekers to separate children from their parents along the southwest border to deter migrants from crossing into the United States, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, May 23, 2018. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Hawa Tembe, whose mother is from Mozambique, joins the applause as Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., top center, joined by Hispanic Caucus Chair Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, D-N.M., and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., protest against threats by President Donald Trump against Central American asylum-seekers to separate children from their parents along the southwest border to deter migrants from crossing into the United States, at the Capitol in Washington, Wednesday, May 23, 2018. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

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Just kind of flipping through news stories on Sunday, I stumbled across two things that seemed very interesting and, when put together, tell a much different story than you’re likely to hear about the 2018 midterms.

First, Bernie Sanders appearing on Jake Tapper’s State Of The Union revealed something somewhat startling: He has no intention of pushing for the abolishment of ICE.

That leads me to believe that there is some polling the Democrats are seeing that shows the immigration issue is not as winnable as they’d like to believe.

Case in point, the latest CBS poll.

Here’s the relevant data:

6. If these were your choices, in the 2018 Congressional elections would you most prefer to
vote for…
A Republican who is more independent from Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
A Republican who is more in line with Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
A progressive or liberal Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
A moderate Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
A third party candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Wouldn’t vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%

7. Who would you like to see win control of Congress in 2018?
Democrats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40%
Republicans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
It doesn’t matter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%

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The Democrats are DOWN to a 4-point lead over Republicans in 2018. That’s just outside most margins of error, and for this particular poll, it’s only outside the MoE by about 1.5 points. This is supposed to be a Blue Wave year, but the wave itself has been consistently shrinking throughout the last few polls.

That’s a problem for the opposition party, which was banking on hatred of Trump to push them through the finish line in 2018, and a 4-point lead means it’s still likely they could take the House. However, their margins are right now looking to be incredibly thin.

Of course, there are the usual caveats: It’s still pretty early, and I wouldn’t expect Democrats to be worried unless this were, say, August or September. There is still plenty of time for something (or more than one something) to change this trajectory for the Democrats. Also, you look at historical data, and you’ll note that the party out of power does tend to do better in midterm elections.

But I suspect there is something for the Democrats to be worried about here, and some of them appear to be (hence Sanders’ hesitation in his interview with Tapper). The trend is not good. Despite multiple negative news cycles, including one that should have been absolutely devastating given the negative coverage (the child separation policy), it’s clear that the Democrats are at a nearly constant risk of overreaching in their reactions, and it’s not sitting well with more moderate voters.

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The Democrat advantage shrinks and the number of undecideds grows. That’s not good for the Democrats. You don’t want to have a quarter of the electorate undecided when you’ve banked everything on the upcoming midterm.

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