In a poll that’s being touted as “brutal” for Democrats, it appears as though the Republicans are on track to keep the Senate in November’s midterm elections, which would give President Donald Trump the chance to still get nominees through the body if need be.
The poll, being pushed by Axios, looks bad for the Democrats, particularly for Democrats in red states. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Bill Nelson in Florida and Joe Donnelly in Indiana are the three weakest Democrats, who are currently underwater in their re-election races. Republican Dean Heller is also underwater, and Arizona is currently leaning blue after years of electing a Republican senator in John McCain.
Democrat Claire McCaskill of Missouri is also in trouble, up only two points over presumptive Republican opponent Josh Hawley. If this poll stands, that means the Republicans could gain a net of 1-2 seats.
It is possible for the Democrats to still have a chance, but it’s a long shot.
An accurate read of this data – taken at face value – is that Democrats are not out of range of retaking the Senate, but it would require pretty much everything to go their way between now and Nov. Not highly likely, but not impossible. And given 2016, not to be ruled out.
— Patrick Murray (@PollsterPatrick) July 10, 2018
The House may be a different story, but the signs right now are indicating that the so-called “blue wave” is still not all it’s cracked up to be.
A couple of disclaimers, though. The poll measured only registered voters, which isn’t the most accurate, and we are still months away from the November elections. It is far more likely that the better picture of the state of the elections will come around September. Still, though, the trends don’t look great for Democrats right now.