I don’t think I’m going out on much of a limb here when I say that the average Donald Trump supporter does not really understand the delegate allocation process. And, really, who can blame them when it’s clear that Donald Trump himself does not understand the delegate allocation process.
Nothing whatsoever has transpired thus far that is not completely within the rules, and yet Trump has convinced his followers that the election is somehow being “stolen” from them. See, the handful of people on team Trump who have two brain cells to rub together know that intimidation of GOP delegates is the last play they have, and they know that the best way to do that is to whip a bunch of angry, loud, profane people (who will unironically be waving signs proclaiming themselves the “silent” majority) into a frenzy.
So every time Trump loses delegates under the rules because his campaign sucks and is run by incompetents (which were hired by the Incompetent-in-chief himself, Donald Trump), they ratchet up the rhetoric even further.
Enter one of the craziest (and most dimwitted) Trump supporters on the whole Internet, Jim Hoft of Gateway Pundit, to fan the flames even further. Today, Hoft is delivering one of his trademark missives with random words in all caps, declaring that “Rep. Chris Collins: DONALD TRUMP Could Likely Sweep ALL 95 DELEGATES in New York State (VIDEO).”
First of all, “could likely” is nonsensical, and to the extent that it makes sense at all, it contradicts itself. And second, the basis for the post:
As reported earlier— Currently Trump is polling greater than 54% in New York. The state primary held on April 19th allocates 14 out of 95 delegates to the overall winner. The winner in each congressional district takes 3 delegates if he wins over 50% of the vote in the district while a candidate must clear 20% of the vote in order to win any delegates in a district.
Trump leads in the latest polling with 54% support.
Two things. First, even if Trump does have 54% of statewide support, the chances that he will get over 50% in every single one of New York’s 27 Congressional districts is nearly zero. I mean, might as well be absolutely zero, in terms of probabilities. It would be pretty much impossible for Trump to sweep all 27 districts (with over 50%) unless he pulls at least in the mid-60s statewide. Second, we have seen over and over and over again that Trump’s support has been vastly overstated by the polls, in virtually every contest that has occurred thus far.
So in reality, the chances that Trump will actually sweep all 95 delegates are zero. Less than zero, almost. No one with a functioning brain is saying it will happen. In Trump’s personal best-case scenario, Trump would be ecstatic if he walks away with 85 delegates next Tuesday.
But Trump supporters always put up this kind of BS story with this kind of BS headline. The end result is that when Trump definitely doesn’t sweep all 95 delegates next Tuesday (and in fact probably walks away with less than 70) the Trump supporters will once again believe that the system is cheated them somehow. It won’t matter that the facts will clearly show otherwise; people who actually take direction from Jim Hoft aren’t really able to discern truth from fiction pretty much no matter what anyway. What matters is that it will feed this narrative of a “stolen election” and will foment more possible violence in Cleveland.