CBS News and YouGov have teamed up to poll the three biggest primaries left in the Republican calendar, and all three polls are huge news for Donald Trump. The poll shows New York looking like this:

  • Trump 54%
  • Cruz 21%
  • Kasich 19%

Pennsylvania looks like this:

  • Trump 46%
  • Cruz 26%
  • Kasich 23%

California looks like this:

  • Trump 49%
  • Cruz 31%
  • Kasich 16%

These are the sorts of results that might actually lead Trump to reach 1,237 delegates, so that is the good news. The bad news is that CBS and YouGov have teamed up to systematically overstate Trump’s support in pretty much every primary they have polled this year.

They predicted that Cruz would win Texas by 11% – he ended up winning by over 17%. They predicted that Trump would win Virginia by 13% – he ended up winning by less than 3%. They predicted that Trump would tie Kasich in Ohio, but he ended up losing by 11%. They predicted that Cruz would win Wisconsin by 6%, but he ended up winning by 13%.

In four of the seven primaries CBS News/YouGov have polled thus far, they have missed either Trump’s support or Cruz’s support (or both) outside the margin of error. Given that any polling company that misses on the margin of error more than one time out of every 20 has a systematic problem, we can safely assume that this latest poll from YouGov is likewise trash. But polls can be fun to talk about.