Quinnipiac Poll Shows Biden Lead Over Trump Growing, Haley Beating Biden in Head-to-Head Contest

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Concerning news for Donald Trump, as a new Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday shows President Joe Biden beating Trump by six percentage points if the election were to be held today. The same poll also shows Republican Nikki Haley beating Biden in a head-to-head matchup 47 to 42. This latest poll shows a downward trend for Donald Trump, as the last poll conducted by Quinnipiac, in December of 2023, showed Trump and Biden in a "too close to call" matchup, with Biden holding a mere one-point advantage over Trump. 

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According to Quinnipiac, the poll was conducted from January 25th to January 29th, 2024, and sampled a wide range of adults.

Responses are reported for 1,852 adults 18 years and older with a margin of sampling error of +/- 2.3 percentage points. The survey includes 1,650 self-identified registered voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 2.4 percentage points, 696 Republican or Republican leaning voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7 percentage points and 693 Democratic or Democratic leaning voters with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Margins of sampling error for subgroups are available upon request.

In contrast, however, a Wednesday Bloomberg polling shows Biden losing to Trump in all seven of the swing states. However, the Bloomberg poll surveyed registered voters rather than likely voters. The polling size, while a larger total number than Quinnipiac's, only equated to roughly 700 registered voters in each state. 

  • Arizona: Trump v. Biden, Trump +3
  • Georgia: Trump v. Biden, Trump +8
  • Michigan: Trump v. Biden, Trump +5
  • Nevada: Trump v. Biden, Trump +8
  • North Carolina: Trump v. Biden, Trump +10
  • Pennsylvania: Trump v. Biden, Trump +3
  • Wisconsin: Trump v. Biden, Trump +5

In a series of three and four-way matchups, Trump still comes out ahead in these states.

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As far as the latest Bloomberg polling conducted in the seven swing states, it seems that Biden's immigration policies, along with his administration's handling of the border, showed a huge impact on those people who were polled.

The percentage of voters who said immigration was the "single most important issue" to them in November went up in six of the seven swing states polled in a new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.

  • 61% of those voters in those states say Biden is at least somewhat responsible for the wave of migration on the U.S.-Mexico border.
  • On the same question, 30% blamed the Trump administration and 38% blamed congressional Republicans.
  • Voters in those states say they trust Trump over Biden on immigration 52% to 30%. The 22 percentage point margin is up five points since the last poll in December.

According to the Quinnipiac poll, out of ten issues listed to those polled, the largest portion of the respondents, 24 percent, stated that preserving democracy was the most urgent issue facing the country. Immigration and the economy are tied for the next most urgent issue facing the country, with 20 percent each. As far as favorability goes, both Trump and Biden share a similar statistic among the registered voters polled: They are both considered unfavorable by a sizable margin. When asked if their opinion of either candidate was favorable or unfavorable, Trump had a 37 percent likability and 59 percent unlikeability, while Biden had 40 percent and 55 percent, respectively.    

Of course, as I've alluded to previously, polls should be taken with a grain of salt, or in some cases, a metric ton of salt, depending on who does the polling. And again, I have used the example of how most, if not all, of the polls going into the 2016 Presidential Election showed Hillary Clinton steamrolling Trump. Nobody saw a Trump victory in that election, except for a few outliers here and there, and obviously, Trump thought he would win. But when he did win, the left and the mainstream media had what became the most beautiful melt-down scenes ever broadcast live for the next several days, if not weeks or months. 

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However, the Quinnipiac poll, in my opinion, should not be taken with a grain of salt or discounted. As far as Donald Trump goes, the election will always be an uphill battle, no matter how you look at it. With his legal troubles still in play, the importance of this election — and what it will take to win it — cannot be discounted or downplayed. 

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