John Kasich won every delegate from his state, thanks to winner-take-all. Ted Cruz won 104 out of 155 from his state, because it was winner-take-all by district, only if the winner gets 50%. Many people have penciled in Donald Trump to sweep New York, but the polling is looking grim for his chances to sweep.
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Like Cruz, Trump needs to hit 50% in order to get the big haul statewide in New York. Trump has the benefit of a three-way race, while Cruz also had to fend off Rubio, Carson, and the just-departed Bush. But despite the much-smaller field, it’s looking unlikely that Trump will cross 50% in every district!
The newest poll by Fox News continues that trend. Getting one challenger above 20 should be no problem, since only one of Kasich or Cruz has to get there to deny a delegate to Trump. That candidate can be Kasich in NYC and Cruz upstate.
It’s frankly ridiculous that most of the pollsters aren’t doing regional breakdowns of these states. It’s lazy, shoddy polling to focus just on the statewide totals, when the statewide total only counts for 14 GOP delegates out of the total of 95. Honest, intelligent polling would look at regional breakdowns, to give a better idea of who will win which congressional districts.
So far the only poll that even tried to give an accurate portrayal of the state was Quinnipiac’s poll two weeks ago. And since then we’ve come to find out that people are ineligible to vote in the primary if they changed parties after an October deadline, something I doubt any of these public pollster has taken into account. Trump has usually underperformed the polling this year, and this New York rule may make it even worse for him!
But we already knew how terrible the polling has been this cycle, didn’t we?