For Donald Trump, it’s not enough to win the New York primary. He’s had a very hard time trying to win majorities this cycle, failing where Ted Cruz has succeeded. If he wants any chance of getting a first ballot majority in Cleveland, he has to find majorities in most of New York’s Congressional districts.

That doesn’t seem likely at all, the way his New York polls are crashing!


Trump International Hotel, New York - Photo by Stefano Brivio on Flickr

Trump International Hotel, New York – Photo by Stefano Brivio on Flickr

We actually got a repeat pollster in New York! Most of the state polling has been really terrible, one shot drive by polling. No regional breakdowns, no trends, sometimes no details at all (such as in this drive-by poll with a small sample size propping up Trump for clicks). It’s all just useless clickbait.

Well, Emerson College still hasn’t done the meaningful work to break the state down by regions, so that we can figure out where Trump sits with respect to different congressional districts, but they have polled the state a second time, updating their numbers from three weeks ago. That means we have our first actual trend line for the state, and for Trump the trend is terrible.

Donald Trump has dropped 8 points in the Emerson poll, while Ted Cruz is up 10. Trump is still over 50, but at 56, with a sharply downward trend, that’s well within the range where regional variations could cost him a bunch of delegates.

If this trend continues, New York could be an even bigger disappointment for him than we thought, and lock him in as having no practical chance of getting to the magic 1,237 delegate total.